Electricity Load Profiles and Load Management Guenter Conzelmann Center for Energy, Environmental, and Economic Systems Analysis Decision and Information Sciences Division (DIS) Argonne National Laboratory 9700 South Cass Avenue Argonne, IL 60439

Electricity Demand/Load Analysis is part of a Multi-Step Long-term Energy Planning Process Economic Analysis Energy Demand Analysis Supply Demand Balance Impacts Analysis Review Evaluate Energy Resource Evaluation Energy Technology Definition ITERATION 34

Macro-Economic Information Energy Demand The Analysis Typically Starts with Developing Macroeconomic Projections and Translating them into Projections of Future Demand/Load Macro-Economic Information Time-series extrapolation Input/output model Econometric model Other models Energy Demand Final Energy (simple) Useful Energy (advanced) Besides overall macroeconomics, drivers include sectoral shifts, absolute and relative price trends, technology/efficiency trends, behavior, etc.

In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (1) Typically, we see a distinct daily profile of consumption that often varies by season Week 1 (Mo – Sun) Week 2 (Mo – Sun)

In Addition to Total Annual Demand, it is Important to Look at the Patterns/Profile of the Load (2) We also usually observe an annual or seasonal variation in loads; may vary by region

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (1)

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (2) Location of the load matters, particularly if transmission is congested; will impact benefits of smart-grid implementation

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (3) The system is typically sized to reliably meet this peak demand

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Illinois (4)

Understanding the Load Profile is Important for Generation System Expansion, or Investment Planning The pattern/shape of the demand has a significant impact on the technology selection Different technologies have different technical and economic characteristics and operational capabilities and limitations Served by high-cost generators (e.g., gas turbines), also peaking hydro or pumped storage Served by medium-cost flexible generators (e.g., coal, combined cycles) Served by low-cost base load generators (e.g. nuclear) 10

Example of Hourly Load Profile: New England (New Hampshire Electric Cooperative, 2008)

In Order to Better Understand the Overall Load Pattern, it Helps to Decompose the Load into Different Components Residential Commercial Agriculture Industry Transport

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential Source: comed.com

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential Source: comed.com

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Residential (2) Source: comed.com

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Commercial Source: comed.com

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Industrial Source: comed.com

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Street Lighting

Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) Must consider how much and how quickly the load evolves Rate of PHEV penetration Must consider locational considerations Where is new load concentrated Will impact transmission congestion, as well as system operations, electricity prices, and carbon emissions Western Interconnect Model Representation 19

Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) 20

Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e. g Example of Hourly Load Profile: New Emerging Load Profiles (e.g., Electric Vehicles) 21

Example Residential Electricity Consumption: What Happens behind the Socket in the Wall…

May need to be a rocket scientist... Example Residential Electricity Consumption: When was the Last Time you Looked at your Utility Bill? May need to be a rocket scientist... (and actually understood it….) 14 different fees, charges, taxes …or an Einstein

For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? U.S. Average: 920 kWh Virginia: 1,173 kWh 2008 Average Monthly Residential Electricity Consumption (kWh) by State 24

For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (2)

For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much Electricity You Consume per Month? (3)

For Residential Sector, Do you Know How Much You Pay for Electricity? U.S. Average: 11.3 c/kWh Virginia: 9.6 c/kWh (2008 Average Residential Electricity Price (c/kWh) by State)

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Negative price: -21 c/kWh

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household

Even More Detail Can be Added to Improve Understanding of Load Pattern and Identify Efficiency and DSM Potential Cooking Air Conditioning Lighting Appliances Space heating Water heating

The Role of Demand Side Management (1) Opportunities for demand side management drive investments in smart-grid and advanced metering infrastructure Goal is to shift load to reduce peak loads Flattens demand curve Reduces generation cost by shifting to low-cost base-load generation Reduces maintenance costs Avoids/delays infrastructure investments (generation, transmission, distribution) Can reduce overall consumption Early DSM program (starting in 1980s) have primarily focused on commercial and industrial consumers Mostly direct load control and tiered pricing Smart-grid technology will impact DSM program focus Shift from direct load control to dynamic pricing Inclusion of residential and small-to-medium businesses

The Role of Demand Side Management (2) Direct load control or incentive-based approaches E.g., interruptible/curtailment rates Allows utilities to control specific loads (e.g., air conditioning) Consumer receives billing discount (e.g., fixed monthly payment for peak months) Direct load control is offered by many utilities One-third of utilities offer direct load contol for residential AC Average participation 15% About two-thirds offer direct load control to industrial and commercial costumers Programs have proven cost-effective with substantial savings 29% average peak load reduction across a sample of 24 programs (Source: eMeter Strategic Consulting, 2007)

The Role of Demand Side Management (3) Dynamic Pricing Almost 1/3 of utilities offer some form of dynamic pricing Time of use, critical peak pricing, real-time pricing Current pilot programs show significant variation in residential peak load reduction with an average of about 22% Impact on overall consumption may be very small Consumption information and transparency More frequent billing: Weekly/daily billing estimated to reduce consumption by 10-13% In-home displays, estimated to save 4-15% Smart-appliances and building automation may lead to peak reductions of over 40% and a decrease in consumption of about 11% Where is my dishwasher control app, my real-time price app???

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE)

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (BEFORE) Loadguard Price Point 10 cents/kWh 14 cents/kWh

Example of Hourly Load Profile: Conzelmann Household Before and After Real-time Price Response (AFTER)

Monthly Savings: Real-time Pricing versus Regulated Tariff

A Couple of Thoughts on my Personal Real-time Pricing Experiment Substantial cost savings, energy savings unclear Potential for information overload Feedback is slow (delayed by a month) Thermal comfort is compromised

Summary Load profiles play an important role in power system planning When projecting future loads, changes in the load shape will have to be considered Due to technology changes (e.g., smart-grid) Due to technology introduction (e.g., electric vehicles) Due to market/consumer incentives (new pricing mechanisms) Energy efficiency and demand side management can play a significant role in shaping future load levels and profiles