Extensions of the March 28, 2009 Bakersfield Valley CAN Event Emily Wimberger

Objectives  Vehicle fleet and owner characteristics  Registration status of vehicles attending the Tune In Tune Up event  Does the event have an impact on vehicle registration status  Further program improvements  Increase emission reductions  Identify dirty vehicles before repairs  Evaluate CARFAX as a research tool  Vehicle fleet and owner characteristics  Registration status of vehicles attending the Tune In Tune Up event  Does the event have an impact on vehicle registration status  Further program improvements  Increase emission reductions  Identify dirty vehicles before repairs  Evaluate CARFAX as a research tool

Acknowledgements  Tom Knox - Valley CAN  Doug Lawson - NREL  Pierre Mérel - UC Davis  Jeffrey Williams - UC Davis  Rocky Carlisle - IMRC  Cindy Stover - ARB  CARFAX  Tom Knox - Valley CAN  Doug Lawson - NREL  Pierre Mérel - UC Davis  Jeffrey Williams - UC Davis  Rocky Carlisle - IMRC  Cindy Stover - ARB  CARFAX

Bakersfield Fleet Mileage and Model Year

Bakersfield Fleet Vehicle Make

Registration Status

Registration Status on Day of Bakersfield Event

Valley CAN Registration Impact  160 vehicles did not pass pre-repair inspection, had complete information, and received complete repairs  104 of these vehicles did not have current registration status March 28, 2010  51 of the 104 unregistered vehicles had current registration status as of April 8, 2010  160 vehicles did not pass pre-repair inspection, had complete information, and received complete repairs  104 of these vehicles did not have current registration status March 28, 2010  51 of the 104 unregistered vehicles had current registration status as of April 8, 2010

Vehicle Comparisons 51 Vehicles 94 Vehicles Registered at Event Remaining 153 Unregistered Vehicles Average Model Year Average Mileage 147,386 miles160,583 miles143,708 miles Average Repair Cost $587.68$405.68$347.82

Fleet Comparisons 51 Vehicles 94 Registered Vehicles Remaining 153 Unregistered Vehicles California Smog Check Inspection Prior to Event 88%97%89% Average Number of Days Between Last Smog Check and Event 483 Days476 Days620 Days Passed Last Smog Inspection Prior to Event 47%78%41% Issued a Junk Title or Salvage Certificate Prior to Event 2%9%19% Issued a Junk Title or Salvage Certificate After the Event 0%7%16% Accident Reported Prior to Event4%18%13%

Ownership Comparisons 51 Vehicles 94 Registered Vehicles Remaining 153 Unregistered Vehicles Average Number of Vehicle Owners3 Owners 4 Owners Average Number of Years Owned at the Event 5 Years 4.8 Years4.5 Years Sold After the Event35%20%32% Average Length of Time Sold After Event 44 days105 days70 days Registered out of State Prior to Event 7%20%21% Ever Leased18%20%14% Ever Classified as a Fleet Vehicle16%30%18% Ever Sold at an Auction20%27%22%

Emission Levels at Event 51 Vehicles 94 Registered Vehicles Remaining 153 Unregistered Vehicles Average HC emissions recorded at Event ppm ppm ppm Average CO emissions recorded at Event 1.2%0.93%1.8s% Passed Event Emission Inspection 4%15%9% MIL illuminated at Event51%89%36% Visible Smoke at Event2% 1%

Bakersfield Fleet and Repairs Redeemed Repair Vouchers298 Vehicles Passed Pre-Repair Inspection47 Vehicles Not Testable7 Vehicles Incomplete Information4 Vehicles NOx Not Required or Missing NOx Data21 Vehicles Incomplete Repair84 Vehicles Complete Repair184 Vehicles Complete Repair, Failed Pre-Repair Inspection, and had Complete Information 160 Vehicles

Incomplete Repairs

First Post Event Inspection Results for all 298 Vehicles Issued Vouchers Received a Smog Inspection After the Event 64 Vehicles Passed First Smog Inspection After the Event 42 Vehicles 66% Pass Rate Average Number of Days Between Event and Subsequent Smog Inspection 269 Days Had Complete Repairs and Passed First Smog Inspection After the Event 31 Vehicles DID NOT Complete Repairs and Passed First Smog Inspection After the Event 11 Vehicles

Emission Reductions  255 vehicle sample  Failed pre-repair inspection  Repair cost greater than cost of inspection  Across the 255 vehicle sample, total emissions were reduced by 36,595 lbs  The total cost of these emission reductions was $110,756  Each pound of emission reduction cost $3.03  How can we improve the efficiency of the event?  255 vehicle sample  Failed pre-repair inspection  Repair cost greater than cost of inspection  Across the 255 vehicle sample, total emissions were reduced by 36,595 lbs  The total cost of these emission reductions was $110,756  Each pound of emission reduction cost $3.03  How can we improve the efficiency of the event?

Marginal Cost of Emission Reductions  In order to maximize emission reductions, we first look at each vehicle and estimate the cost to reduce emissions by one unit

Marginal Cost Marginal Cost = Total Repair Cost Change in Emissions Change in Emissions = Pre-repair Emissions - Post-repair Emissions

Marginal Cost for Event Vehicles  118 of the 255 vehicles had both pre and post-repair emissions levels  We calculated the marginal cost of emission reductions for these vehicles  118 of the 255 vehicles had both pre and post-repair emissions levels  We calculated the marginal cost of emission reductions for these vehicles

Marginal Cost Calculations

Marginal Cost Curve

Cost Curves by Model Year

Moving along the Cost Curve

Estimating Marginal Cost  We grouped all 255 vehicles by model year  1985 and older     2000 and newer  We then estimated the marginal cost for the 137 vehicles that had no post-repair emission data  We grouped all 255 vehicles by model year  1985 and older     2000 and newer  We then estimated the marginal cost for the 137 vehicles that had no post-repair emission data

Optimal Repairs  Given the marginal cost and the average emissions for all vehicles, we calculated the optimal amount of repair dollars and the resulting change in emissions for each vehicle

Event and Optimal Statistics EventOptimal Pounds of Total Emissions Saved 39,341 lbs123,307 lbs Number of Vehicles with Complete Repairs 118 Vehicles140 Vehicles Average Repair Dollars Per Vehicle $333.40$ Cost Per Pound of Emission Reduction $2.82$0.90

Caveats  Assumes the goal is total emission reductions, not vehicles obtaining smog check certificates  Assumes all vehicles at the event are being driven regardless of smog inspection or registration status  The high repair cost per vehicle shows that there is lots of room for improvement, but does not mean that $1,000 repair vouchers are feasible  These are preliminary results  We raise many questions but not making policy recommendations  Assumes the goal is total emission reductions, not vehicles obtaining smog check certificates  Assumes all vehicles at the event are being driven regardless of smog inspection or registration status  The high repair cost per vehicle shows that there is lots of room for improvement, but does not mean that $1,000 repair vouchers are feasible  These are preliminary results  We raise many questions but not making policy recommendations

Next Steps  Look at the correlation between the emission levels of vehicles at the event and emission levels at the time of repair  Can we identify and target vehicles that will have a low marginal cost of emission reductions?  Tiered vouchers  Vehicle retirement  Can we identify vehicles at the event that fall into the ‘51 Vehicles’ category  Look at the correlation between the emission levels of vehicles at the event and emission levels at the time of repair  Can we identify and target vehicles that will have a low marginal cost of emission reductions?  Tiered vouchers  Vehicle retirement  Can we identify vehicles at the event that fall into the ‘51 Vehicles’ category