A Proposal for Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle Fleet for Lockheed Martin Corwin Olson Turner Wright Tim Honker Clint Henry ASE 333T April 29 th, 2004

Reusable Launch Vehicles The Problem Large demand among public for “Space Tourism” No affordable access to space The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Corwin Olson The Problem: Vast unrealized profits

Reusable Launch VehiclesDemand The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Corwin Olson Wish to travel to space by age group (Japan)Wish to travel to space by age group (U.S.) Collins Collins (1995) Study people: 70% willing to spend several months’ salary ~$1 trillion/year scale of activity (2003 estimate) Ticket Price (U.S. $) DemandLowMediumHigh $10,0003,000,000150,0006,000 $100,00020,0001,00060 $1,000, Collins Commercial Space Transportation Study (1994) Table 1: Worldwide Annual Passenger Demand for Space Tourism “Bottoms Up” Method based on income, age, and ticket price $60 million vs. $20 million CSTS Alliance

Reusable Launch Vehicles Lack of Access Affordability  Ex. Space Shuttle- $10,000/lb into orbit  All three space tourists paid $20 million Safety  Ex. Challenger, Columbia No vehicles designed for tourists, general public Governmental red tape The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Corwin Olson

Reusable Launch Vehicles Why solve it? The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Corwin Olson Profit Established infrastructure Power Transfer Prestige

Reusable Launch Vehicles The Solution The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Problem Problem Unaffordable access to space Unaffordable access to space Desire for Space Tourism among elite Desire for Space Tourism among elite SOLUTION SOLUTION A fleet of reusable launch vehicles (RLV’s) A fleet of reusable launch vehicles (RLV’s)

Reusable Launch Vehicles The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright

Reusable Launch Vehicles The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright

Reusable Launch Vehicles Level of Reusability The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright FULLY reusable FULLY reusable Capable of taking off the surface of the earth Capable of taking off the surface of the earth Achieving sub-orbital flight Achieving sub-orbital flight Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS present at launch Return to Earth with ALL COMPONENTS present at launch Takes everything it needs with it and back Takes everything it needs with it and back Space Shuttle is partially reusable Space Shuttle is partially reusable External H 2, O 2 liquid fuel tank isn’t reused External H 2, O 2 liquid fuel tank isn’t reused

Reusable Launch Vehicles The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright

Reusable Launch Vehicles The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Launch Options Launch Options Vertical- Saturn V, STS, Apollo Vertical- Saturn V, STS, Apollo Horizontal- X Prize contenders Horizontal- X Prize contenders Landing Options Landing Options Horizontal landing (STS) Horizontal landing (STS) Vertical landing (splashdown or over land) Vertical landing (splashdown or over land) For RLV commercial fleet For RLV commercial fleet Horizontal takeoff, landing Horizontal takeoff, landing Tailored to people Tailored to people

Reusable Launch Vehicles Why a Fleet of RLV’s? The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Lowers the cost Lowers the cost Safer, more reliable Safer, more reliable Dependent on consumer reliability Dependent on consumer reliability Not federal funds Not federal funds Are enough people in the market? Are enough people in the market?

Reusable Launch Vehicles Lowering Cost The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright X-prize$2-$20 million X-prize$2-$20 million STS D&D$10 billion STS D&D$10 billion STS launch$245 million/year STS launch$245 million/year STS infrastructure$2.8 billion/year STS infrastructure$2.8 billion/year RLV fleet cost$250 million-$2 billion RLV fleet cost$250 million-$2 billion Design and Development Design and Development Launches- fuel cost Launches- fuel cost Mission Operations- variable Mission Operations- variable Infrastructure- NOT included in estimate Infrastructure- NOT included in estimate Landing strips, terminals, administration Landing strips, terminals, administration

Reusable Launch Vehicles Why so much less? The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Suborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travel Suborbital flight- MUCH cheaper to travel Low orbit for tourists, not actual missions Low orbit for tourists, not actual missions Less KE required Less KE required Infrastructure Infrastructure Cement landing strips instead of launch pad Cement landing strips instead of launch pad Eventually take over airlines? Eventually take over airlines? Design Design Fuel efficient, cost efficient Fuel efficient, cost efficient Different parameters than shuttle Different parameters than shuttle

Reusable Launch Vehicles How It Will Solve Problem The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Compare prices for transportation Compare prices for transportation Greyhound Bus$50 Greyhound Bus$50 Commercial Airliner$600 Commercial Airliner$600 Concorde$10,000 Concorde$10,000 Space Adventures$20,000,000 Space Adventures$20,000,000 RLV fleet$10,000-$50,000 RLV fleet$10,000-$50,000 Afford the Concorde  ride the RLV Afford the Concorde  ride the RLV Possible for elite class Possible for elite class

Reusable Launch Vehicles Alternative Solutions The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Turner Wright Vertical Launch Vertical Launch Not as convenient as airlines Not as convenient as airlines Need to walk right up to door Need to walk right up to door Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown) Vertical landing (i.e. splashdown) Costumers waiting in the ocean Costumers waiting in the ocean Picked up by aircraft carrier Picked up by aircraft carrier Not exactly best PR Not exactly best PR

Reusable Launch Vehicles The Solution Implementation Creation of a Reusable Launch Vehicle though 4 stages 1.Increase Research & Development budget 2.Design Vehicle 3.Prototyping and Testing 4.Mass Production, Infrastructure support The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Tim Honker

Reusable Launch Vehicles Increase R & D Estimated Cost of 1 prototype to LH: $200 million over 5 years The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Tim Honker 2002 Yr. Lockheed Martin R&D budget: $860 million Estimated Cost to LH for mature $2 billion spaceplane in 15 years Estimated Cost to taxpayers for mature >$100 billion over spaceplane on current schedule 40 years

Reusable Launch Vehicles Design of Spaceplane The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Tim Honker David Ashford Spaceplane Development Strategy

Reusable Launch Vehicles Prototyping & Testing The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Tim Honker Keys to expedited and economical production Maximizing use of proven technology Test new components individually Using models for overall structure – combine new and old

Reusable Launch Vehicles Mass Production & Infrastructure The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion Tim Honker Minimizing Risk, Maximizing profit Create foundation in other stable industries Keep other industries “invested” Build public demand before final release Spread financial risk and lure of profit

Reusable Launch Vehicles Third Party Involvement Private Sector Other companies X-Prize competition Space Tourists Government NASA Military Clinton Henry The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion

Reusable Launch VehiclesEthics Safety Is the risk of failure worth sending people into space? Service Engineers pledge to “give the utmost of performance” Profit Driving byproduct of research and development Maintaining prestige Clinton Henry The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion

Reusable Launch VehiclesRecommendations Public relations Recognize and learn from predecessors 1.Space Shuttle 2.X-33 3.X-Prize Clinton Henry The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion

Reusable Launch VehiclesConclusions Statement and description of the problem The solution to the problem Implementation of the solution Other considerations Clinton Henry The ProblemThe SolutionSolution ImplementationConclusion

Reusable Launch VehiclesReferences Studt, T., Duga, J., “Smaller Increase Forecast for US Research Spending,” January 2002, (11 Apr. 2004). Ashford, David, “Spaceflight Revolution,” Imperial College Press, London, Collins, P., “Space Tourism Market Demand and the Transportation Infrastructure,” July 2003, demand_and_the_transportation_infrastructure.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004). Crouch, G., “Researching the Space Tourism Market”, June 2001, et.shtml, (27 Apr. 2004). Wertz, James R. and Larson, Wiley J. “Reducing Space Mission Cost.” Microcosm Press, Torrance, CA: 1996.