Current Status and Ongoing Development of BlueSky Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon (US Forest Service) Dana Sullivan, Sean Raffuse, Chris Ovard, Lyle Chinkin (Sonoma Technology) Lamb/Vaughan NASA ROSES Project Meeting UW, April 13, 2007

BlueSky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS FUEL LOADING CONSUMPTION EMISSIONS MET INTERPRETER DISPERSION TRAJECTORIES SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS Framework is Modular Open-sourced Portable

BlueSky Framework WEATHER FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT Wildfire ICS 209 FASTRACS RAZU Manual Other FIRE INFORMATION REPORTING SYSTEMS FCCS Hardy (West) NFDRS EPM FEPS BURNUP Idealized profile CONSUME 1.02 CONSUME 3 BURNUP MM5 WRF HYSPLIT CALPUFF HYSPLIT CALMM5 FUEL LOADING CONSUMPTION EMISSIONS MET INTERPRETER DISPERSION TRAJECTORIES SMOKE TRAJECTORY & CONCENTRATION PREDICTIONS Framework is Modular Open-sourced Portable

Real-time products using BlueSky NWS Smoke Forecast Product (lower 48) AirPACT3 & ClearSky (PNW, Lamb & Vaughan, WSU) FCAMMS (5 regional centers, covering lower 48) BlueSky + RAINS = BlueSkyRAINS

FCAMMS: National BlueSkyRAINS

6 Selected Accomplishments BlueSky Consortium –Users and scientists together?! Oh, my! –Tailored visualizations (RAINS) –Creating a dialog Modular/Flexible, so utilized –Adopted by National Weather Service –SMOKE preprocessor (like MOBILE, etc…) –enables inter-model comparisons National Forecasts –NWS (“experimental” transitioning to “operational”) –FCAMMS (consistent national product now available) Inter-agency cooperation –USDA, USDOI, USEPA, NOAA –BlueSkyRAINS West 2005 demonstration project

7 BlueSky-West Frank Church Evaluation: Findings and Recommendations Bluesky models long-range transport very well.

8 Fires are currently modeled as single plumes, lofting smoke unrealistically high and lowering ground impacts In reality, fires are made of many burning areas lofting smoke to various heights Modeled Reality Plume Rise

9 Multiple plumes make it look better

Fire Information Issues Fire information can be of poor quality Smoke predictions depend on the fire information Courtesy Tim Brown, DRI U.S. Fire Report Locations

11 LightHeavy Fuel Loadings (even in the same veg type) can vary hugely Emissions based on Fuel Load and Fuel Consumption Model Choices Photos courtesy Ottmar et al. Which model is best?

The Next-Generation BlueSky AirFire, Sonoma Technology, Inc., and NASA ROSES Grant  Facilitate sustained operations.  Improve inputs and settings.  Enhance user experience and access.  Add user-oriented functions.  Continue benchmarking performance. courtesy W. Hao

13 FUELS CONSUMPTION TIME RATE EMISSIONS MET CONDITIONING / DISPERSION / TRAJ FLAT FILES CORE FRAMEWORK INPUT HANDLER RUN HANDLER OUTPUT HANDLER (responsible for a “run” including threading, ensembling, etc…) (responsible for receiving and fetching inputs and notifying runs of any changes) (responsible for reconciling inputs) (responsible for reconciling outputs, e.g. from ensembles) SMARTFIRE

14 Revamped code-base (Professional) More models More modular More reliable Eliminate variants BlueSky Framework (new)

15 SMARTFIRE Ground-based systems Satellite fire info (NOAA HMS) Reconciled fire info including sub-grid fuels and plume information BLUESKY SMARTFIRE: Incorporating satellite fire data Expert Users (e.g. Incident Command Teams)

16 August - September 2005

17

18 S. Raffuse, Sonoma Tech

19 Overview Animations National Coordination Weather Related Links User Guide Help BlueSky LegendScenarioAdvanced Current Tool: Zoom In Data Predicted PM2.5 – 12 km Surface Winds – 12 km Modeled Surface Parameter Modeled Wind Parameter Measured Parameter PM2.5 – AIRNow Query Contact Us Privacy and Security Statistics Welcome, Sean Raffuse My Account Sign Out Overview Map Advance Hour PST Go to Default Map Set as Default Map Clear Default Map

This spring:  Reconciled satellite data (SMARTFIRE)  Initial BlueSky Framework rewrite available  Consistent BlueSky predictions across all FCAMMS + consistent RAINS implementation Later this year:  Integrated national 36km CMAQ grid + higher- resolution regional FCAMMS forecasts  Revised interface (AIRNowTech? RAINS2?)  Partnering with AIRNow By next year (?):  Ability to ‘what-if’ prescribed burns  Ensemble forecasts Summary: Coming Soon

International? (Satellite fire detects don’t stop at border) Incorporate all fire info sources (SMARTFIRE?) Run overall grid (e.g. 36km CMAQ, other) Have this feed more regional applications - all in one [AQ need] (CMAQ, WRF-CHEM, other) - smoke management specific (turn fires off/on, etc...)(CALPUFF/HYSPLIT) The Future?

22 User Needs 2 Distinct Smoke Forecasting Needs  for Air Quality What is going to happen? would ideally like 1 number (possibly w/uncertainty or probability distribution) care about all types of pollutants (not just smoke)  for Smoke Management What if? (I do this) (or that) (or that other thing) would ideally like to know what if? to a large number of management choices Mostly just care about smoke These two distinct user groups lead to different (but related) systems

23 A Possible Solution Overall National Grid All-in-one (one atmosphere) Coarser grid CMAQ ~36 km grid 1 run all pollutants EPA NWS Regional Grids Higher resolution 1-4 km grids (finer?) Regional AQ CMAQ all pollutants 1 run EPA / NWS / ? Smoke Management many runs smoke only CALPUFF / HYSPLIT USFS / USDOI / ? Decisions impacting smoke