1 ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast FY2002-2003: ONR –AOSN Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2004:

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1 ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System) Real-Time Modeling, Data Assimilation, and Forecast FY : ONR –AOSN Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2004: CIMT-$100K – hindcast experiment FY : ONR –MB06/ASAP Monterey Bay field experiment FY 2006: CIMT-$100K –Transition the ROMS nowcast and forecast toward real-time operational demonstration FY 2006: CIMT-$25.4K (with Leslie Rosenfeld) –Real-time Monterey Bay wind product PI: Yi Chao JPL ROMS Group: Ocean: –John Farrara –Gene Li –Adam Wang –Carrie Zhang IT/Database/Web: –Peggy Li –Quoc Vu Thanks to many CIMT investigators

2 CIMT needs a modeling component, because? Model can be used to –Fill the data gap: ocean will be always under-sampled, over 900 profiles/day were collected during August 2003 AOSN experiment; 100 moorings are sufficient for MB observing system Model can be used to –Forecast into the future: observation can only tell what happens today

3 Two complementary modeling approaches Process-oriented modeling: simple/easy understood or theoretical framework Modeling for application users (e.g., weather forecast, fishery management)

4 1.5-km 5-km 15-km

5 Data Assimilation: 3-Dimensional Variational (3DVAR) method J = 0.5 (x-x f ) T B -1 (x-x f ) (h x-y) T R -1 (h x-y) Time Aug.1 Aug.4 Aug.3Aug.2 Initial condition 24-hour forecast Aug.5 X a = x f +  x f XaXa xfxf 3-day forecast y: observation x: model 24-hour assimilation cycle

6 CIMT ROMS Reanalysis (Retrospective Analysis) and Real-Time Forecast Plan clim. spinup Aug.03 AOSN (ONR) Sep.04 Aug.06 ASAP (ONR) TIME 1-year Reanalysis (CIMT) Multi-year Reanalysis Real-time forecast CIMT data: ship CTD & underway, M0, Sea Lion profiles Other data: satellite, M1/2, AUVs, ships

7 An Interactive Web Portal to Manage and Visualize Sea Lion Data

8

9 No Data Assimilation Assimilation of AOSN data Bias Mean RMS 194 Sea Lion profiles

10

11

12 A New ROMS Capability: Predicting Sea Level

13 Data and Model Products Real-time Monterey Bay wind demonstration –CIMT web site ROMS 3D nowcast and forecast demonstration in the near future (2007 maybe) –Temperature, salinity –Surface current, complementary to HF radar but filling in data gaps and extending offshore –Sea level Future ROMS capabilities, collaboration with other CIMT PIs –Coupled physical-biological ecosystem processes, in collaboration with Chavez and Chai –Other CIMT data types