Transportation and the Economy H. Scott Matthews March 2, 2004
Admin / Announcements Midterm Due Thurs! Thurs: HW #3 passed out (due 3/23) Next week: Spring break
Recap of Recent Lecture(s) Prob/stats discussion about models to envision, predict, portray infrastructure effects Including deterioration models How can we apply these? Need data What kind of data exists?
What is Management? The act, manner, or practice of managing; handling, supervision, or control: management of a crisis; management of factory workers. The person or persons who control or direct a business or other enterprise Source: American Heritage Dictionary (00)
What is Infra. Mgmt.? Administrative process of creating, planning, and maintaining our infrastructures An integrated, inter-disciplinary process that ensures infrastructure performance over its life cycle Life cycle is entire time from design through decommissioning 2 (familiar?) slides from the first lecture in the course: How did we claim to achieve/realize this goal?
Policy Issues Need to recognize geographical or locational needs/differences Need flexibly-designed standards at federal, state levels (e.g. snow in NE US) Systems designed flexibly to accommodate technological change Need to track/predict performance indicators
How to Manage Transportation Infrastructure? Brainstorm ways to make decisions.. Manage life cycle costs based on ___? Source: “Transportation and the Economy”, AASHTO, May 1998.
AASHTO Excerpt Benchmarks how important highway investments are to economy (and well being) Rates of return of investments Important metrics - tell us everything? Prioritize multi-modal transport programs? i.e., rail vs. truck vs. air decisions Using this info for toll/tax decision making Difference in-house vs. outsourced transportation 3% vs. 5% of GDP from transportation Focuses mainly on freight transport but personal/passenger also relevant
Where do you THINK data comes from for these facts? Or, what would ideal data/modeling look like?
Background on Data Sources Several major components Department of Commerce Shipments, locations, employees, etc. Department of Transportation Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) Consumer Expenditure Survey American Travel Survey (Households)
Commodity Flow Survey Multimodal - Flow of goods & materials by mode Samples 200,000 establishments randomly from a universe of about 800,000 engaged in mining, manufacturing, wholesale, etc. Each selected establishment reported a sample of abut 25 outbound shipments for a one-week period in each of four calendar quarters in Total sample of over 5 million shipments. For each shipment: zip code of origin and destination, commodity shipped, weight, value, and modes of transport Data for all modes used per shipment
CFS Outputs State-to-state level transport data Approximate distances and routings Estimates of freight movement within/to/ from/through per state (truck ton-miles) See Map 1 in Handout Similarly, see Map 2 for Passenger How would this data change your thoughts on highway funds allocation?
Woodrow Wilson Bridge I-95 over Potomac (near Wash, DC) Used CFS data to estimate shipments that happened over the bridge $58 billion in 1993 (1.3% of total) 30 million tons (0.5% of total) About $1/pound (3x higher than avg) Why? Mix of commodities different Note some shipments missed (farm, construction, transportation, retail).. CFS data didn’t give exact routes - had to guess
Technology Applications This is not enough data to make management decisions - get more? How? Track/locate individual vehicles Schedule/route vehicles Fleet/logistics management application Fleet managers can get value from these approaches (better, faster freight business) Connected w/ Geographic Info Systems (GIS)
Security Perspective Might want to be able to track/ verify shipments entering an area (e.g. US) With all of this, what kinds of solutions could be implemented?
Other Issues “Data Gaps” NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) Effects of just-in-time inventory mgmt