New Members of Congress December 4, 2008 Jeffrey Frankel Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth Harvard Kennedy School.

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Presentation transcript:

New Members of Congress December 4, 2008 Jeffrey Frankel Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth Harvard Kennedy School

Civilian labor force Civilian employment Unemployment rate SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Employment peaked in Dec. 2007; since then we have lost almost 2 million jobs (12/5/08). The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November (based on household survey). Payroll employment series Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

On Dec. 1, the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee announced that the recession had started December This means that the recession is already –longer than & 2001 recessions (8 mos.), –longer than average post-war recession (10 mos.) Forecasts show no recovery before mid-2009 => Recession will be longer than any other post-war (16 months).

BUSINESS CYCLE REFERENCE DATES Source: NBER PeakTroughContraction Quarterly dates are in parenthesesPeak to Trough August 1929(III) May 1937(II) February 1945(I) November 1948(IV) July 1953(II) August 1957(III) April 1960(II) December 1969(IV) November 1973(IV) January 1980(I) July 1981(III) July 1990(III) March 2001(I) December 2007 (IV) March 2001 December 2007 March 1933 (I) June 1938 (II) October 1945 (IV) October 1949 (IV) May 1954 (II) April 1958 (II) February 1961 (I) November 1970 (IV) March 1975 (I) July 1980 (III) November 1982 (IV) March 1991(I) November 2001 (IV) March 1991 November Average, all cycles: (32 cycles) (16 cycles) (6 cycles) (10 cycles)

Six-month Change in Payroll Employment at Annual Rate, September 1955 – November 2008

Monetary policy easy Federal budget deficits Underestimated risk in financial mkts, incl. backward- looking option pricing Failures of corporate governance Incl. executive compensation rating agencies… Households saving too little, borrowing too much Excessive leverage in financial institutions Stock market bubble Housin g bubble Stock market crash Housin g crash Financial crisis China’s growth Low national saving Lower long- term econ.growth Eventual loss of US global hegemony Recession Oil price spike Gulf insta- bility Foreig n debt Origins of the financial/economic crises CDSs MBS s CDO s Predatory lending Excessive complexity