ACM 97 The Next 50 Years of Networking Vinton G. Cerf Senior VP, Internet Architecture, MCI

ACM 97 THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

ACM 97 Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to: THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

ACM 97 James Burke Master of Ceremonies

ACM 97 VINT CERF

ACM 97

Fax, Television - Long Maturation Fax, Television - Long Maturation Internet Takes 20+ Years Internet Takes 20+ Years Internet Driven From Outside Internet Driven From Outside – Gopher, WWW – Internet Telephony, Java Sigrid’s Cochlear Implant Sigrid’s Cochlear Implant And Everything Happens Overnight

ACM 97 Interworking of Telephony Services With the Internet Interworking of Telephony Services With the Internet – Interweaving of Two Great Networks of the 20th Century Network Independent Services Network Independent Services “internet telephony” as inadequate as “horseless carriage” to describe “internet telephony” as inadequate as “horseless carriage” to describe Weaving a New Fabric

ACM 97 Customers Want Interoperability Customers Want Interoperability Open Standards are Required Open Standards are Required Interoperability Opens New Application Possibilities Interoperability Opens New Application Possibilities New Platforms: WWW, Vault, Java, Games New Platforms: WWW, Vault, Java, Games Interoperability Is The Key

ACM 97

American “Instant Gratification” American “Instant Gratification” Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay at Work! Telecommuting at Home, Teleplay at Work! Micropayments and the Penny Novel Micropayments and the Penny Novel Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher, and the WWW Johnny’s Mommy and Teacher, and the WWW Everything On Demand

ACM 97

Continuous Connection Continuous Connection “Smart” Scales, refrigerator “Smart” Scales, refrigerator “Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows Where it is, When it is, Temperature “Smart” Sensors - Computer Knows Where it is, When it is, Temperature Reading Glasses -- 21st C Style Reading Glasses -- 21st C Style 21st Century Microwave Oven 21st Century Microwave Oven Network Immersion

ACM 97 “Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over Internet “Telephony”, “Video”, “Radio” Over Internet Internet over TV, Radio, Satellite Internet over TV, Radio, Satellite Mutual Reinforcement Among Media Mutual Reinforcement Among Media Paper May Become Specialty Item Paper May Become Specialty Item Not Only Human, but Computer Interaction Not Only Human, but Computer Interaction Internet and the Media

ACM 97 Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA... Combined Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA... Combined Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow Focus Speech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable VCR! Real Progress -- Easily Programmable VCR! Net Potato?

ACM 97 Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA... Combined Pager, Cellular, Laptop, PDA... Combined Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Bodynets - “Hardwear” and “Softwear”? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Net Surfing/Chat and Avoid Ads? Speech Recognition - Narrow Focus Speech Recognition - Narrow Focus Real Progress -- Easily Programmable VCR! Real Progress -- Easily Programmable VCR! Net Potato?

ACM 97 Multiparty Gaming Common Multiparty Gaming Common Virtual Shopping, Banking & Learning Rapidly Evolve Virtual Shopping, Banking & Learning Rapidly Evolve Advent of Digital Actor Advent of Digital Actor Star Wars: The Special Edition Star Wars: The Special Edition Digital Characters Appear Across Variety of Media Digital Characters Appear Across Variety of Media The Virtual Lifestyle

ACM 97 Not Enough Addresses - IPV6 Not Enough Addresses - IPV6 Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching, CIDR, Flow Mgmt. Inadequate Routing - Tag, IP Switching, CIDR, Flow Mgmt. Traffic - Faster Fiber Traffic - Faster Fiber Expense - Competition, Usage- Based Pricing Expense - Competition, Usage- Based Pricing Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work (Gilmore) Regulation, Censorship Won’t Work (Gilmore) Stumbling Blocks and Solutions

ACM 97 More Devices Than People on the Internet More Devices Than People on the Internet Computer Mediated Communication and Memory Computer Mediated Communication and Memory – Alzheimer’s, Vint’s Hard Disk and Alta Vista Interaction of Intelligent Agents Throughout the Network Interaction of Intelligent Agents Throughout the Network Outcomes

ACM 97 Prediction I will not live to see what happens in 2047, but I will live to regret these timid future predictions!