IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Climate Change and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Jean Palutikof Head, Technical Support Unit Working Group II IPCC Met Office, Exeter, UK

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What is the greenhouse effect?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What is our contribution?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What is our contribution?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Other gases are important as well as CO2

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What is the evidence for climate change?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability And from the longer record?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What is the expected impact on climate? Change in global surface temperature Change in global mean sea level

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability And at the regional scale?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What tools do we have available?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Pattern of annual average temperature change, 2080s relative to present day for A1F1 (left) and B2 (right) emissions scenarios

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability A2a scenario A2a B2a A2a: –Longer by days in centre and south east –10 days shorter over northern Europe B2a: –Smaller changes than A2a –wetter Eastern Med. Precipitation indices: maximum length of dry spell per year ( minus )

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Precipitation indices: max. 5-day running total ( minus ) A2a scenario A2a: –Lower intensity, by mm, in future, particularly in west –Increased intensity in centre and Adriatic B2a: –Smaller changes than A2a –Clearly higher intensity in Italy

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

What are the implications for European urban areas?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Impacts Impacts of more intense rainfall on storm drains/sewers Heat stress Changes in circulation and the implications for air pollution Coastal cities and tidal surge Implications of increased wind storm

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability All cause death rate Strongest associations with temperature are between August and March In November, 64% of the variance in the death rate is explained by temperature The reduction in the death rate due to a 1 degC increase in temperature and a 10mm decrease in rainfall is in the range 1-3% All months r 2 = 0.67

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Adaptation Through design: –Of urban spaces –Of buildings Through behaviour –Use of the outdoor environment –Transport policies –Air conditioning

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Mitigation activities Energy use –Reduction in demand –Use of renewables Fuel-efficient transport systems

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What about surprises/abrupt climate change? Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Melting of the Greenland ice cap Collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation Of course, the real surprises are the ones we haven’t thought of

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Is there controversy?

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change To assess the scientific literature on climate change To support the UNFCCC Three Working Groups –Science –Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability –Mitigation and Policy Now carrying out the Fourth Assessment To report in 2007

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Structure of WGII Two Co-Chairs: –Martin Parry, UK –Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina Six Vice-Chairs One TSU with four full-time staff Writing team of around 200 CLAs, LAs and REs, plus Contributing Authors Four Lead Author Meetings

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group II AR4 Summary for Policymakers + Technical Summary Introduction 1. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems II. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: SECTORS 2. New assessment methodologies and the characterisation of future conditions 3. Fresh water resources and their management 4. Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services 5. Food, fibre and forest products 6. Coastal systems and low-lying areas 7. Industry, settlement, and society 8. Human health III. ASSESSMENT OF FUTURE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION: REGIONS 9: Africa, 10: Asia, 11: Australia and New Zealand, 12: Europe, 13: Latin America 14: North America, 15: Polar Regions (Arctic and Antarctic), 16: Small Islands IV. ASSESSMENT OF RESPONSES 17. Assessment of adaptation practices, options, constraints and capacity 18. Inter-relationships between adaptation and mitigation 19. Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change 20. Perspectives on climate change and sustainability

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Supposing you wanted to contribute to the process The IPCC assesses the literature It seeks to be inclusive and consensual The preference is for fully refereed publications There are procedures to deal with ‘grey literature’ Submissions of literature and/or text can be made to the appropriate CLA, the Co-Chairs or the TSU, for consideration

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability The message from IPCC TAR Emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmosphere in ways that are expected to alter our climate There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composion throughout the 21 st century Global temperatures and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC SRES scenarios Anthropogenic climate change will persist for many centuries See

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability What will be the principal messages of the AR4?