“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity” Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University.

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Presentation transcript:

“NYC Climate Projections & New Atmospheric Observational Capacity” Stuart R. Gaffin, Cynthia Rosenzweig Center for Climate Systems Research Columbia University & NASA Goddard Inst. For Space Studies 2880 Broadway New York, NY New York Bight Sub-Regional Meeting May 13, 2008

Skating in Central Park 1890

Typical End-Winter View of Central Park Lake Dakota Building

UHI GW NYC’s Heat Burden Past, Present and Projected : Columbia University & GISS ~7 o C / 13 o F 2oC2oC 7 days above 90 o F 14 days above 90 o F 3-4 days above 95 o F Most of Summer above 90 o F days above 95 o F GW = Global Warming UHI = urban heat island

“Very Wet” Days (~2 inches) Very wet days occur ~25% more often in the 2050s, and 50% more often in the 2080s Source: CCSR

Projected Change In NYC Area Sea Level (Extremely Conservative on Greenland & Antarctica)

Former “Urban Dispersion Program” “Met Net”

New Columbia University “Green Met Net” – 4 nodes as May 2008 LI City Flushing Morningside Heights Bronx

Benefits to the people of NYC from MetNet Data Emergency-response planning: for accidental or terrorist releases Weather forecasts of precipitation, sea breeze movement, thunderstorm activity, etc. Climate-change evaluation & planning: risk deter- mination & mitigation strategies Ozone and PM/aerosol forecasts & prevention Human-health impacts from heat, cold, & poor air quality Energy planning based on local urban heat island variations & of potential new sources (e.g., wind, solar)

Measurements in real-time Permanent and expandable facility Secure two-way data-flow communications Quality-assured data Permanent data-archive Secure-access to archive Transparent graphical user-interface developed with end-user input Dynamic-forecasts for emergency-response A decision support facility Requirements of a NYC MetNet

Potential Stakeholders City of New York: OEM (Fire, Police), DEP, Dept. of Health, et al. New York State: DEC Federal: NOAA/NWS, EPA, FAA Business community sectors