Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products Yang Liu, J. T. Hoeksema, and HMI Team.

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Presentation transcript:

Space Weather Forecast With HMI Magnetograms: Proposed data products Yang Liu, J. T. Hoeksema, and HMI Team

Proposed data products with HMI magnetograms. Data products; Data products; Model products; Model products; Indices from data and modelings. Indices from data and modelings.

Data products Full disk magnetograms; Full disk magnetograms; Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 sec). Line-of-sight magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 45 sec). Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 minutes). Vector magnetograms – cadence TBD (as high as 12 minutes). Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, update at TBD. Movie of line-of-sight magnetograms – 12 day history, update at TBD. Active region patches; Active region patches; Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD. Vector magnetograms on patches – cadence TBD. Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD. Line-of-sight magnetograms on patches –cadence TBD. Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD. Movie of line-of-sight for each patch – cadence TBD. Synoptic maps. Synoptic maps. Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes (?). Synchronic frame of radial field – update each 96 minutes (?). …

Model products Coronal field models – cadence TBD; Coronal field models – cadence TBD; Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD. Global – PFSS, Hybrid, MHD. Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD. Local – Potential field, NLFFF, MHD. Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities, … Field lines, source surface maps, MHD quantities, … Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients; Magnetic field global harmonic coefficients; Open field footpoints – coronal holes; Open field footpoints – coronal holes; Horizontal flow from FLCT; Horizontal flow from FLCT; Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT; Velocity data from DAVE4VM/ILCT; 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, … 1 AU predictions – solar wind speed, field polarity, field strength, …, from PFSS, MHD, … …

Proposed indices Solar active regions. Solar active regions. Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation. Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation. Solar flares. Solar flares. Indices (to be discussed in the splinter on the Thursday). Indices (to be discussed in the splinter on the Thursday). Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions); Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions); Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines. Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines. CMEs’ speed. CMEs’ speed. Reconnection flux and background field configuration. Reconnection flux and background field configuration. Orientation of magnetic cloud (Yurchyshyn will talk about it). Orientation of magnetic cloud (Yurchyshyn will talk about it). Direction of heliospheric current sheet. Direction of heliospheric current sheet. Interplanetary magnetic field. Interplanetary magnetic field. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling. …

Basic parameters for active regions Total unsigned flux: describe the size of an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and related with potential field energy; Total unsigned flux: describe the size of an active region (Fisher et al. 1998), and related with potential field energy; Net flux: might indicate how much the large scale flux involved in a region. CMEs are believed to be related with large scale fields. Net flux: might indicate how much the large scale flux involved in a region. CMEs are believed to be related with large scale fields.

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.) Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is. Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is. Separation: indicate how compact an active region is. Separation: indicate how compact an active region is. From Fisher (2000)

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.) Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is. Tilt angle: how far an active region away from normal, might indicate how complex the field configuration is. Bipolar magnetic field regions (Tian et al. 2002) Flare-productive ARs (Tian et al. 2003)

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.) Separation: indicate how compact an active region is. Separation: indicate how compact an active region is. Wang & Sheeley (1989)

Basic parameters for active regions (cont.) FLUX (e22 Max) NET(%) SEPARAT (Mm) TILT (Degree) FLUX/SEPA RATION ALL1.37± ± ± ± ±0.024 FLARE2.74± ± ± ± ±0.026 CME2.48± ± ± ± ±0.035 SEP5.56± ± ± ± ±0.192

Indices for flare prediction (details in the Thursday’s splinter) Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral lines. Hagyard (1987), Wang et al. (1994) (with vector magnetic field data): Magnetic shear along the neutral lines. Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field and line-of- sight field data): magnetic neutral line. Falconer et al. (2002, 2005, 2006, …) (with vector field and line-of- sight field data): magnetic neutral line. Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes explored. Leka et al. (2003a,b; 2007; …), Barnes et al. (2006; 2008; …) (vector magnetic field data): tens of indexes explored. Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux along neutral line with strong field and high gradient. Schrijver (2005; 2007; …) (line-of-sight magnetograms): field structure away from potential field; unsigned flux along neutral line with strong field and high gradient. Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic field): helicity. Georgolis/LaBonte (2006; 2007; …) (vector magnetic field): helicity. Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with information of flows, evolution … Welsch et al (2009) (line-of-sight magnetograms): with information of flows, evolution … Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; 2007); Guo et al (2006) … Many others, such as Jing et al. (2006); Cui et al. (2006; 2007); Guo et al (2006) …

Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; Fan & Gibson 2007). Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Simulation :see Torok & Kliem 2005; Fan & Gibson 2007). Courtesy: Kliem & Torok

Flares or flares/CMEs: failed, ejective Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Observation). Decay index n of overlying magnetic field (Observation). n Flux (e22 Max) Failed1.62± ±0.33 Ejective1.91± ±1.14

CMEs’ speed Reconnection flux, and background field configuration. Reconnection flux, and background field configuration. Type 1 Type 2 Type 3 number Percentage39%47%14% Median speed Mean speed 883± ± ±736 Qiu & Yurchyshyn (2005) Type 1 Type 2 Type 3

Orientation of magnetic cloud Agreement between the directions of the heliospheric current sheet and the magnetic cloud (see, Zhao & Hoeksema 1998; Yurchyshyn 2008; Yurchyshyn & Tripathi 2009). Agreement between the directions of the heliospheric current sheet and the magnetic cloud (see, Zhao & Hoeksema 1998; Yurchyshyn 2008; Yurchyshyn & Tripathi 2009). Yurchyshyn 2008

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar mean field Correlation between solar mean field and interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. Kotov et al. 2002). Correlation between solar mean field and interplanetary magnetic field (see, e.g. Kotov et al. 2002). Courtesy: Xuepu Zhao.

Solar wind speed Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model; MHD simualtions. Wang-Sheeley (or Wang-Sheeley-Arge) model; MHD simualtions. Courtesy: Xudong Sun

Proposed parameters (potential to be used for space weather forecast) Solar active regions. Solar active regions. Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation. Basic parameters: unsigned flux, net flux, tilt, separation. Solar flares. Solar flares. Indices (TBD). Indices (TBD). Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions); Flares or CMEs (failed or successful eruptions); Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines. Decay index of magnetic field overlying magnetic neutral lines. CMEs’ speed. CMEs’ speed. Reconnection flux and background field configuration. Reconnection flux and background field configuration. Orientation of magnetic cloud. Orientation of magnetic cloud. Direction of heliospheric current sheet. Direction of heliospheric current sheet. Interplanetary magnetic field. Interplanetary magnetic field. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling. Solar mean field and PFSS/MHD modeling. Solar wind speed. Solar wind speed.