ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT: A COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ROBERT NASH PARKER ANN HOPE NORMAN GIESBRECHT

FIRST EXAMPLE OF NEW INTERNATIONAL COMPARATIVE PROJECT ASSAULT AND ALCOHOL –ASSAULT MAJOR SOCIAL PROBLEM –LITERATURE IN CRIMINOLOGY NOT EXTENSIVE –IMPACT OF ALCOHOL MAY LEAD TO POLICY IMPLICATIONS –GREATER POTENTIAL FOR HARM REDUCTION

DESIGN OF THIS PAPER THREE COUNTRY COMPARATIVE TIME SERIES ANALYSIS CHARACTERISTICS: –LONG TIME SERIES ( ) –ALCOHOL AS TOTAL PURE LITERS PER CAPITA –ALL CRIMINAL ASSAULTS EXCLUDING SEXUAL ASSAULT

USA, IRELAND, CANADA

ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT CANADA

ALCOHOL AND ASSAULT USA

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH CONCEPTUAL APPROACH –SIGNAL TO NOISE –USED IN DOZENS OF SCIENTIFIC DISCIPLINES: ELCTRONICS, ASTRONOMY, ENGINEERING, PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIOLOGY ARIMA MODELS –IDENTIFCATION PHASE IDENTIFY THE NOISE COMPONENTS

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH (CONT) AR: SHORT TERM WEIGHTED EFFECTS AT LAG X I: SIMPLE UNWEIGHTED EFFECT AT LAG X MA: WEIGHTED AVERAGES OF CURRENT AND LAG(S) UP TO AND INCLUDING X

EXAMPLE: IRELAND AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION USED TO IDENTIFY COMPONENTS IDENTIFY TENTATIVELY A TYPE AT A LAG X, MODEL, RE-TEST WITH ACF AND PACF ITERATIVE PROCESS

ACF AND PACF FOR IRISH TOTAL ALCOHOL

ACF AND PACF IRISH ASSAULT RATE

ARIMA (0,1,0) IRISH ALCOHOL

ARIMA (1,1,0) IRISH ASSAULTS

MODEL FOR ASSAULTS PREDICTED BY ALCOHOL IN IRELAND RESULTS: –AR(1) = (3.13**) –Alcohol =.272 (4.02**) For US: significant impact of Beer on assaults; null results for Canada

DISCUSSION What have we learned from comparative method? Despite Canada’s high assault, preliminary analysis finds no link to alcohol While total consumption per capita predicted assaults in Ireland, only beer seemed significant in the US Two of three countries show alcohol and assault relationship

CONCLUSION International Project on Alcohol and Assault shows promise Potential for large scale harm reduction from reducing alcohol consumption and thus reducing significantly the assault rate Please join us in this project: to be added to the list and receive in the next month or so a first attempt to survey alcohol and assault time series data availability across the world