Three Things (I think I know) about the Land Use / Transportation Connection Jon D. Fricker 21 June 2007

3 Things... LU/Tp2 Transportation and Land Use Issues A.“Urban Sprawl” B.Euclidean zoning C.Gasoline prices D.

21 June Things... LU/Tp3 What the travel model says: 1. Changing Land Use patterns will affect the amount of travel (vehicle-miles traveled) – at least a little.

21 June Things... LU/Tp4 What economic analysis says: 2. A neighborhood can support only so much retail activity.

21 June Things... LU/Tp5 What people say: 3. A New Urbanist neighborhood design is not for everyone.

21 June Things... LU/Tp6 1. Changing LU patterns Move non-residential LUs into one neighborhood. LUs that fit travel behavior, rather than the opposite Provide LUs that satisfy the most common trip making purposes.

21 June Things... LU/Tp7 1. Reverse Engineered N’hood A. LU Categories by trip frequency: >1 trip/week, >1 trip/month, <1 trip/month:  Grocery, Gas Station, School, et al. B. Nr of each LU/100 HHs:  Trip rates per 100 HH (NPTS and ITE) for each LU  Average size of each LU C. Scale up to 1 sq mi

21 June Things... LU/Tp8 1. REN example calc (1) trips/week/1000 sq. ft. GFA in supermarket trips/week/HH to supermarket Store area = (1.327/901.58)* 1000 *100 = 147 sq. ft./100 HHs Avg supermarket size 34K sq ft  supermarkets per 100 HH Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs

21 June Things... LU/Tp9 1. REN example calc (2) Repeat for all other “frequent” LUs  total land area needed to serve 100 HHs Assumed HHs/acre  land needed Scale up to fill one square mile  “attractions” in REN

21 June Things... LU/Tp10 1. REN travel model Let residents work and shop anywhere. TAZ size  one city block Subarea analysis VMT or Trip Length

21 June Things... LU/Tp11 1. Changes in Travel Avg. TL (miles) REN+5 zones EUCLID+ 5 zones % change w.r.t. EUCLID HBW HBNW NHB Avg. TL (miles) Trips in/out of REN Trips in and out of EUCLID % change w.r.t. EUCLID HBW HBNW NHB

21 June Things... LU/Tp12 1. Lessons Introducing non-residential LUs gives residents a choice of destinations that are closer. The resulting reductions in trip lengths are noticeable, but not dramatic, at the neighborhood level. The trip length reductions are barely noticeable at the system level.

21 June Things... LU/Tp13 2. Neighborhood businesses How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support?How many retail establishments can a New Urbanist neighborhood support?

21 June Things... LU/Tp14 2. Neighborhood businesses Shift analysis from trips and GFA to $/HH and $/LU type Nhood area one sq mi 5(?) HHs/sq mi Do “Market Analysis” (next two slides)

21 June Things... LU/Tp15 2. Consumer Expenditure- Based Market Analysis An average household spends $3000 a year on grocery-store related items. An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year.An average grocery store has sales of $600,000 a year. Then, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery storesThen, the number of grocery stores that can be supported by 100 HHs = $3000 * 100 / ($ 600,000) = 0.5 grocery stores

21 June Things... LU/Tp16 2. Household-Based Market Analysis There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person).There are 1000 banks in a state with a population of 100,000 (i.e., 0.01 banks per person). The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year.The average income at the state level is $12,000 a year. The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year.The average income at the county level is $10,000 a year. Then, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banksThen, the number of banks that can be supported by 100 HHs = 0.01 * 100 * ($10,000/ $12,000) = 0.83 banks

21 June Things... LU/Tp17 2. Lessons At “normal” urban densities for single- family dwellings (4-6 HH/acre), a one- square-mile neighborhood cannot support enough stores to cover even one edge.  Density must be increased dramatically, probably by high-rise apartment buildings, or  The “neighborhood” stores must rely on customers from other neighborhoods.

21 June Things... LU/Tp18 3. Preference Surveys Two-part survey at a monthly meeting of a neighborhood association. (1) Rate the desirability of twenty-four types of non-residential land uses if they were located within walking distance of your residence. (2) Three hypothetical New Urbanist-like neighborhood revitalization case studies, differing by location and scale, were presented.

21 June Things... LU/Tp19 3. LU Preferences (1) Churches were most preferred, while liquor stores were ranked lowest. (figure next page) Land uses visited frequently (e.g. grocery store or restaurant) rated higher than less-frequented ‘benign’ LUs, such as an insurance sales office. A positive relationship between the frequency of trips taken and the desirability of a particular land use within a neighborhood.

21 June Things... LU/Tp20 3. LU preferences (2)

21 June Things... LU/Tp21 3. New Urbanist Cases

21 June Things... LU/Tp22 3. Residents’ Opinions People would still go to more distant stores for longer hours, lower prices, greater variety. Opposed proposed developments in center of neighborhood -- would increase traffic. Development on perimeter acceptable, but few residents would not walk/bicycle to the proposed developments, despite their proximity.

21 June Things... LU/Tp23 In other words, … Not this:But this:

21 June Things... LU/Tp24 Review of Results 1.Land use changes can help reduce VMT, but this is a long-term solution. 2.High densities needed to support “frequent” LUs, but other LUs need a larger market shed. 3.A minority like New Urbanist design now, but this market niche needs to be nurtured.