Mark S. Paese United States Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration June 13, 2007 Effective All-Hazards Warning System 2007 National Community Preparedness Conference: Partnerships and Collaboration Through Citizen Corps

2 Overview Land OceansSpace Environment Atmosphere Climate The Risks: Natural disasters, emergencies, terrorism, and technological hazards The Future: National, regional, and local integrated public alert and warning systems The Challenge: How can we bring about this approach?

3 Global Challenges As society becomes more complex we become more sensitive to natural and human induced changes.

4 Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

5 Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water Hurricanes

6 AP Photos Extreme Climate, Weather, and Water Tornadoes

7 Tsunami Warnings

8 Preparedness Observations - Threat Detected Warnings Issued and Understood Actions Taken LIVES SAVED Photo credit: Todd Campbell Essential Steps for Effective Preparedness and Warnings

9 Preparedness

10 Earth Observations: Disaster Mitigation FLOATS GAUGES BUOYS Better ocean observations = more accurate forecasts & effective warnings

11 Forecast for Advisory 23 Issued BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA…EVEN STRONGER…HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST…. HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH…WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER… AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES.. 18 TO 22 FEET COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS… AS HIGH AS 28 FEET LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES… CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. 000 WWUS74 KLIX NPWLIX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. Warnings Issued

12 Action Taken Photos by AP

13 Existing U.S. Public Alert Networks Dissemination systems to reach the public NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards NOAA Weather Wire Service (NWWS) Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN) Internet ( Common Alerting Protocol Format Emergency Alert System

14 NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards Government-operated network provides direct warnings to the public More than 975 transmitters nationwide covering 98% of the population Entry point into Emergency Alert System Alert operates 24 x 7 Able to reach you when you most need it Low cost receiver units System tested weekly

15 URGENT - MESSAGE 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF NINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...MOVE TO SAFE AREA. URGENT - MESSAGE 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED.... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITYOF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF NINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE NINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...MOVE TO SAFE AREA. Improve observations & predictions The Future Integrated Public Alert and Warning Target Specific AreasDisseminate Message

16 Results Provides Regional, national, and local officials with multiple means to alert and warn public Provides Regional, national, and local officials with multiple means to alert and warn public Uses international standards and protocols Leverages public/private partnerships Provides effective warnings at all times, in all places, over multiple media Saves lives Reduces disaster losses Integration ✓ Standards and protocols ✓ Message clarity ✓ Targeting alerts ✓ Digital Technology ✓ Radio communications ✓ Landline and Mobile Telephone ✓ Internet portal ✓ Sirens and other devices The Future Integrated Public Alert and Warning System