The Role of Antarctica in Understanding the Earth’s Atmosphere and Climate Richard Brandt University of Washington and Paul Smith’s College Institut Polaire.

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Presentation transcript:

The Role of Antarctica in Understanding the Earth’s Atmosphere and Climate Richard Brandt University of Washington and Paul Smith’s College Institut Polaire Français National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Italian National Research Program in Antarctica

James Elkens NOAA-CMDL 2001

catalog /10139.html

What are the atmospheric gasses that cause the greenhouse effect? Not the major gasses: N 2 78% O 2 21% Ar 1% On earth (unlike venus and mars) it is the minor gasses that are responsible for the greenhouse: H 2 O CO 2 O 3 CH 4 N 2 O

Determining Earth’s past climate 1. Human record (only~2000 years) 2. Ice cores in Antarctica and Greenland. (up to 475,000 years ago) 3. Tree ring analysis, extent of pollen deposition (up to millions of years) 4. Ocean sediments and geochemistry (over a half billion years)

The Dome C δD record resembles Vostok and Dome F records over their common parts EPICA Community paper, Nature, 2004

Jones, P.D. and Moberg, A., 2003: Hemispheric and large-scale surface air temperature variations: An extensive revision and an update to Journal of Climate, 16,

T.P. Barnett, D.W. Pierce, R. Schnur, Science 292, 270 (2001)

1. Feedbacks: two positive examples  CO 2   insulation   SST   evaporation  H 2 O   insulation   SST  CO 2   insulation   SST   sea ice extent  albedo   absorbed sunlight   SST Why is predicting our future climate so difficult?

2. Feedbacks: two negative examples  CO 2   insulation   SST   evaporation  H 2 O   clouds   SST  CO 2   insulation   SST   phytoplankton  DMS   Cloud condensation nucleii   clouds   SST Why is predicting our future climate so difficult?

1. Detailing climate feedbacks properly to get the correct climate amplification (example is ice-albedo feedback) 2. Improving our understanding of albedo, temperature, water vapor, cloud cover, atmospheric dynamics of the less populated parts of earth, especially the polar regions. (Few or no weather and climate records) 3. Climate models are computationally intensive and there are complexities due to such a highly nonlinear system (for example atmospheric turbulence which is chaotic). We are limited by our computing power for regional scale modeling. Why is predicting our future climate so difficult?