Communication and the Future Thom McCain

Communication Technology’s Life Cycles Precursor – imagination, prereq’s exist Invention – short period, prototype made Development – longer period, market Maturity – integrated into life forces Pretenders – some advantages, enough? Obsolescence – 5-10% of life cycle Antiquity – museum pieces (mechanical calculator, typewriter, carbon paper)

Moore’s law of integrated circuits Transistors decrease in size by ½ every 24 months Computing capacity (the number of transistors on a chip) double every 24 months (or less) Speed of each transistor doubles every 24 months Kurzweil notes that the cycle is now approaching 12 months

Moore’s law at work YearTransistors in Intel Chips 19723, , , , ,200, ,100, ,500, ,500, ,000,000

Kurzweil: The Age of the Spiritual Machine Law of Time and Chaos In a process, the time interval between salient events (events that change the nature of the process or significantly affect the future of the process) expands or contracts along with the amount of chaos. More chaos = more time spent More predictability = less time spent

Law of Accelerating Returns As order exponentially increases, time exponentially speeds up The time interval between salient events grows shorter as time progresses In evolutionary processes ORDER increases In evolutionary processes CHAOS decreases Time speeds up Order is information that fits a purpose

Implications of Kurzweil’s laws Exponential growth and the game of chess Growth powerful, but deceptive “knee of the curve”brings unrelenting fury of development Digital Divide How will the whole world benefit? Can access be assumed Does political economy of communication technology match technical capacity?

Communicating in the future Can do anything, with anyone, everywhere, at any time Most meetings can be accomplished virtually High resolution 3-D images projected through direct-eye displays and audio lenses. Resolution exceeds human eye Technology totally emersive and wearable

Tactile Environments Resolution exceeds or equals human touch Pressure, temperature, textures, moistness Total haptic environment requires entering a VR booth Medical exams and your virtual health Sensual/sexual experiences with human or simulated partners

Disabilities Optical sensors used by blind and sighted persons Deaf persons read through lens displays Paraplegic and quadriplegic routinely walk, climb stairs, are “on their own.” Generally the disabilities are not observable to others

Implications of Moore’s Law Innovation in communication technology is on an increasingly fast innovation curve. More technologies will be invented in the next 20 years than have been imagined in all of prior human history The Singularity is Near Kursweil predicts by the year 2020 this will have computers exceeding human intelligence - They already do in some areas What will be next?

2020 is coming A computer will be everywhere Walls, tables, jewelry, our bodies The environments of virtual reality will directly display on contact lenses or the retina. The clarity of the VR display will exceed the capacity of the current human eye. Three dimensional audio will be similarly available

2020 continued Keyboards are rare Most interaction will be with gestures using hands, fingers, facial expressions, two-way natural spoken language. Interaction with computers will mimic interaction with other intelligent beings Personalities of computers will be essential and varied – just like other intelligent beings Cables will have largely disappeared

Moore’s Law Implications -- Kurzweil Computational capacity of a $4,000 computing device is approximately equal to the computational capability of the human brain 20 million, billion calculations per second Memory in 2020 is an electronic phenomenon, not a mechanical one Neural Implant chips are introduced

Your future? How do you envision the world in 2020? Politics Sex Violence News Stereotyping Advertising What is the public interest in this future?