Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman &

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Alternative Models of Dynamics in Binary Time- Series—Cross-Section Models: The Example of State Failure Nathaniel Beck, David Epstein, Simon Jackman & Sharyn O’Halloran

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran2 The Problem of State Failure Question: Why do countries “fail”? Is it a function of political, social or economic conditions? Ultimately, can we predict failure and take steps to prevent it? CW: The factors which induce failure are not the same ones that alleviate it Theoretical hook: basis of rule of law

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran3 Failure Definition Sample: 147 countries from States can fail in any of 4 ways: Revolutionary War (50 episodes/359 case-years) Ethnic War (60 episodes/692 case-years) Adverse Regime Change (87 episodes/255 case-years) Genocide/Politicide (36 episodes/265 case-years) Dependent variable is coded as a 1 if any of these failure modes is present

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran4 Summary Statistics on Failure Total of 4596 country-years in study Non-rectangular due mainly to appearance and disappearance of states over time 18.47% of all country-years are failures 68 countries (46%) had no failures 4 countries had only failures IV’s: trade openness, democracy, infant mortality, population density

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran5 New & Total Failures,

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran6 0 ½ 1 y* = x  +  Probit:  1  (0,1) P(y=1) = Probit(y*) Probit Analysis The Standard Case

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran7 0 ½ 1 Probit(x  ´) Probit Analysis Impact of Changing 

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran8 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Error Terms for MLE

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran9 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Time Series t = 123… T

0 ½ 1 Country 1 0 ½ 1 Country 2 0 ½ 1 Country 3 0 ½ 1 Country 4 Probit Analysis – Time Series Cross Section

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran11 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Restricted Transition Model (LDV)

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran12 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Restricted Transition Model (LDV) y* = Probit(x  ) y* = Probit(x  )

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran13 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Full Transition Model y* = Probit(x    ) y* = Probit(x   )

Emory, 7/20/01Beck, Epstein, Jackman & O'Halloran14 0 ½ 1 Probit Analysis Lagged Latent Model