Scientific Uncertainty - related to the introduction of DNA vaccines in aquaculture By Frøydis Gillund Hamburg, January 2007

My PHD project: ”Genetic engineering in aquaculture: Perspectives on management and sustainability” ”Genetic engineering in aquaculture: Perspectives on management and sustainability” Part of an interdisciplinary project including fish immunology, molecular biology, philosophy of science and sociology Part of an interdisciplinary project including fish immunology, molecular biology, philosophy of science and sociology Hamburg, January 2007

Outline of the presentation  Walker & Harremoës uncertainty framework  Genetic engineering in aquaculture  Models of the fate of the DNA vaccine  Preliminary findings Hamburg, January 2007

Uncertainty framework By Walker & Harremoës: “Providing a conceptual framework for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in decision support” “Providing a conceptual framework for the systematic treatment of uncertainty in decision support”Assisting:  Better communication  Thrust in science and policy  Prioritizing research Hamburg, January 2007

Dimension of Uncertainty Uncertainty is defined as: ”any departure from the unachievable ideal of complete determinism” Uncertainty as a three dimensional concept: Fig. 1 – The three dimensions of Uncertainty (from Walker, Harremoës et al., 2003). Level Location Nature Hamburg, January 2007

 Location: Where the uncertainty manifests itself within the system  Level:  Nature: Uncertainty due to lack of knowledge and methodology or due the inherent variability of the system Scenario Uncertainty Statistical Uncertainty Recognised Ignorance Total Ignorance Known outcomes; Known probabilities. Known outcomes; Unknown probabilities. Unknown outcomes; Unknown probabilities. Nothing is known! Hamburg, January 2007

Genetic engineering in Aquaculture  Growing demand for fish and shellfish products accompanied by increasing losses due to diseases caused by pathogens and lack of high quality feed sources.  Genetic engineering strategies like marine genetically modified organisms, DNA vaccines and GM plants as edible vaccines and GM feed, are considered as possible solutions Hamburg, January 2007

DNA vaccines  Cheap and easy to produce and administrate  Combat diseases that traditional vaccines can not eradicate  The IHNV DNA vaccines for Atlantic salmon was cleared for marketing by Canadian food Inspection Agency  Limited scientific knowledge on uptake, persistence and degradation of DNA vaccines following the injection. Hamburg, January 2007

The natural system Hamburg, January 2007

The social system Hamburg, January 2007

Interviews  We conducted interviews with 12 scientists working in the field of DNA vaccination in Norway.  The informants represent scientists working in publicly funded research projects, private research institutions and management bodies Hamburg, January 2007

Preliminary findings Generally:  The scientists agreed with the model  Few identified adverse effects of DNA vaccines in aquaculture  Many possible consequences were mentioned, but the probabilities for these to occur were considered low  Many questioned why DNA vaccines should be treated differently than other traditional vaccines Hamburg, January 2007

Location of uncertainty  Unintended immune response most frequently mentioned as characterized by uncertainty  Intended immune response, the fate of the plasmid DNA and the inserted genes and environmental release where also characterized by uncertainty Hamburg, January 2007

Level of uncertainty Research question: Research question: Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for DNA vaccination of fish? Based on the present scientific understanding, how would you qualify the ability to develop a consensus model describing key parameters and causal relationship for DNA vaccination of fish? Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer. Between level 2 and 3 was the most common answer. Hamburg, January 2007

Nature of uncertainty Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related to environmental release was also due to the natural variability of the phenomenon. Most of the uncertainty was due to lack of knowledge and methods. Uncertainty related to environmental release was also due to the natural variability of the phenomenon. Hamburg, January 2007