The Magical Mystery Tour U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets and the Path Ahead Alex Villacorta, Ph.D. Director, Research & Analytics Clear Capital.

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Presentation transcript:

The Magical Mystery Tour U.S. Residential Real Estate Markets and the Path Ahead Alex Villacorta, Ph.D. Director, Research & Analytics Clear Capital

Here Comes the Sun Know Your Sources: Clear Capital Premium provider of residential valuation solutions and market data for large financial services companies. The Company’s customers include the largest U.S. banks, GSEs, investment firms and other financial organizations. Our products and solutions leverage our extensive vendor network and progressive technology to provide residential real estate valuations including: Appraisal Products Broker Price Opinion Products Data Products & Home Pricing Indices Web-based Platform Services Tens of thousands of reports completed every month Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium 2011

Ticket to Ride Current Housing Market Vitals Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium 2011 Decline Since Peak: % Dip Double Dip -2.7% 3.5% -6.9%

Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium 2011 All Together Now Regional Decline Since Peak of Market (Q2 2006) West: down 8.3% since 2010 Northeast: unchanged since 2010

Come Together Condo Market versus Single Family Residences Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium % 60.7% -38.6% 42.2%

Can’t Buy Me Love National, Top, Mid, and Low Tier Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium 2011 Low Tier: Nearly double the declines Top Tier: Nearly double the $$ declines

Yesterday Major Home Price Indices Since 1975

Get Back Real Home Price Indices Since 1975

Helter Skelter Unemployment’s Effects on Foreclosure Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium

Help! REO Saturation and Price Fluctuations Berkeley Real Estate & Economics Symposium 2011

I’m Looking Through You Performing, REO, and Blended Phoenix MSA Price-per-Square-Foot

National Two Year Forecast Sluggish improvement over next two years Here There and Everywhere Forecasting the Market California Two Year ForecastSan Francisco MSA Two Year ForecastSacramento MSA Two Year ForecastRiverside MSA Two Year ForecastLos Angeles MSA Two Year Forecast

Let It Be Changes on the Horizon Potential Game Changers REO Volume Spikes Current inventory dammed up Significant shadow inventory yet to come down the pike Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac Request for Information Rental Program Bulk Sales Assistance programs for homeowners Attorney General settlement Principal forgiveness Disruptions to natural process could be high risk/reward game

We Can Work It Out What Lies Ahead Are we out of the Woods? No, but some local markets are Relative stability since first dip anticipated All things equal, expect a flat 2012, Another try at a recovery in Q REO volume is a challenge, but opportunity still out there Uncertainty/pessimism still biggest challenge to recovery Policy and regulation changes remain in question The devil you know is better than the devil you don’t