Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST-B) Nicole van Lipzig.

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Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST) Nicole van Lipzig a, Susanne Crewell.
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Quantitative evaluation of regional precipitation forecasts for Belgium using multi-dimensional remote sensing observations (QUEST-B) Nicole van Lipzig a, Laurent deLobbe b, Susanne Crewell c a Physical and regional geography group, K.U.Leuven, Belgium b Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) c Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Köln Kwinten Van Weverberg (PhD project) Ingo Meirold-Mautner (PostDoc project)

LE satellite MSG ~ 5km; 15min  Cloud Mask  Cloud top pressure MODIS ~ 1km; 1day  Cloud Mask  Optical thickness IPT / Micro- wave 1D vertical; Lindenberg (and Cabauw)  temperature profile  humidity profile  LWC GPS 147 stations; Germany; 30min  IWV Ceilometer 17 stations; Germany; 1min; ranges up to 4km  Cloud base height  Cloud cover (<4km) Radar DX radar composite; 1km; 5min  Rain rate Polarimetric radar (DLR) Multi-dimensional remote sensing

Radar of Wideumont C-band Doppler Radar Gematronik Tower : 46 m Antenna height : 592 m Antenna diameter : 4.2 m Measurements range: 240 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity

Radar of Zaventem (Brussels) C-band Doppler Radar Radtec/Sigmet On the top of Brucargo.... building Antenna diameter : 4.2 m Measurements range: 250 km for reflectivity 120 km for velocity

LMK domain Atmospheric models: Lokal-Modell: LMK (LMKürzestfrist) (Δx=2.8 km) Aladin (Δx=7 km; Δx=4 km) used for operational weather forecasting in Belgium: based on French AROME modeling system Advanced Regional Prediction System: ARPS (Δx=3 km)

Phase I: Model evaluation Phase II: Compilation of precipitation distribution for two contrasting summer seasons Improve understanding of causes for these differences in precipitation characteristics Input for soil erosion models and crop models

Soil erosion in Flanders (Belgium) (Verstraeten et al. 2003) Orography of Belgium

Amount of precipitation is important for soil erosion P (mm) per rain event Rain erosivity for a rain event Timeseries for the Belgian station Ukkel Verstraeten and Poesen, 2006

Sensitivity of the precipitation distribution for climatic changes Temperature forcing at the lateral boundaries of the model domain (surrogate climate scenarios) Effect of changes in atmospheric circulation (classification into weather types)

Summary Evaluation of QPF for Belgium using different atmospheric modeling systems Identify weaknesses and strengths of the different modeling systems (for regions, weather types, precipitation regimes …) Insight in precipitation changes on a small scale for climatic changes Interaction between different disciplines (meteorology, geography, agriculture) with respect to atmospheric branch of hydrological cycle

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