Climate Change in the Columbia Basin Starting the Dialogue CCRF Workshop Cranbrook BC May 30 th 2007.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change in the Columbia Basin Starting the Dialogue CCRF Workshop Cranbrook BC May 30 th 2007

Preliminary Analysis of Climate Change in the Canadian Columbia River Basin - Focusing on Water Resources Prepared for the Columbia Basin Trust by Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium Looked at past 90 year precipitation and temperature records and undertook modeling for future temperature trends

Use your common sense and powers of observation…things are different even in our lifetimes…

“Higher summer and winter temperatures, declining mountain snowpack, reduced snowfall, long, dry summers, sudden heavy rains – the residents of the Columbia River Basin in Canada are experiencing different weather conditions than in the past.”

Columbia Basin Temperature Trends Columbia Basin mean annual temperature record and 50-year trends. The average temperature of the Basin has increased by C Celsius over the past century Compared to C in the Pacific Northwest and C globally. It’s getting less cold rather than warmer.

Trends: Change in Average Temperature Spring (°C per century) Source: Indicators of Climate Change for BC air/climate/indicat/index.ht ml air/climate/indicat/index.ht ml

Future Basin Temperature Predictions PCIC Global Climate Models using a mid- range future emissions from the IPCC. (Increase from current) C 0 by 2020’s C by 2050’s 3.3 – C by 2080’s 3 0 C change means West Kootenay communites would have a mean annual temperature similar to Osoyoos today. 5 0 C change triggered the last ice age

Illecillewaet glacier – Vaux Family photographs Melting Glaciers

Shepard Glacier W. C. Alden/ USGS photo B. Reardon/ USGS photo. 2005

Grinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould 1938 Hileman photo/ GNP Archives 1981 Key/ USGS photo 1998 Fagre/ USGS photo2005 Reardon/ USGS photo

Glacial Melt in the Columbia Basin Ice loss by watershed ( ) Basin Basin Area (km2) 1986 Ice (km 2 ) 2000 Ice (km 2 ) % Loss Bull River3, Canoe River3, Columbia River Headwaters 7, Columbia River4, Duncan River4, Elk River5, Kicking Horse River 5, Kootenay Lake9, Kootenay River5, Slocan River3, St. Mary’s River6, Upper Arrow Lakes6, Total79,1052,0971,75316 Brian Menuous- University of Northern BC

Glacier Park Factoids 150 in 1850 to 27 or less in 2006 Less than 28% of the glacier area remains Less than 10% of the glacier volume remains

Impacts of Glacial Melt Glaciers act as natural reservoirs. Provide water in later summer and fall months when precipitation is lower. Cold water run-off critical for existing fish species. Some watersheds and communities rely on glacial melt for late summer flows. System wide 10%-20% of the annual flows and 50% of late summer flows in some years result from glacial melt.

What are the projected Hydrologic Changes in the Columbia Basin Associated with Climate Change

For areas that accumulate snowpack in winter, the areas close to freezing in mid- winter are most sensitive to warming. +2.3C, +4.5% winter precip Climate Impacts Group – U of Washington

Snowlines moving up

Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Less snow, earlier melt means less water in summer (Summer low flow issues) –irrigation –urban uses –fisheries protection –energy production More water in winter –energy production –Flooding Earlier Spring runoff -20 days earlier ( compared to 1970 – 1983) Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, OR. Source: P. Mote, University of Washington

Trends: Change in Date of First River Ice Melt (days per decade) Source: Indicators of Climate Change for BC air/climate/indicat/index.ht ml air/climate/indicat/index.ht ml

Landscape and Habitat Change

Habitat changes – increased habitat availability

Decreased habitat availability Up to 40% of species worldwide could face extinction – Nicholas Stern

2001: Mountain pine beetle damage Pest outbreaks may become more intense

Droughts and wildfires will occur more often.

Increase in extreme weather events.

Starting the dialogue on Climate Change in the Columbia Basin 1. Accept that the present is, and the future will be, different from the past, and continue to learn about the changes 2. Expect surprises, and be as prepared as possible 3. Factor in climate change for long-term decisions

Conclusions In order to start dealing with Climate Change in the Columbia Basin Education and Dialogue is key Adaptation – Even if we stop all emissions now the climate will keep changing. How do we adapt to our new reality? Mitigation – We have decisions to make in the next 20 years about future impacts (Stern).

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