The Freight Analysis Framework – Overview and Uses Bruce Lambert Office of Freight Management and Operations

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 2 Presentation Outline 1.Why did HOFM develop the FAF 2.How has the FAF been used to date 3.What has HOFM learned 4.Future Product Development

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 3 1. Why did HOFM develop the FAF Simply trying to develop database of freight movement across modes, commodities and time periods to support research efforts in the Freight Office. Involved:  Synthesis of diverse data.  Expanded scope from other studies.  Understanding the relationship of freight, geography, and infrastructure.

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 4 DATA SOURCES BTS/Census Bureau Commodity Flow Survey (All Modes) BTS Transborder Freight Statistics (Truck, Rail, Pipeline) STB/FRA Rail Waybill Sample (Rail) MarAd and US Army Corps data (Water) BTS/FAA (Airport) Reebie (Truck) Census Bureau 5-year Census and Annual Survey of Manufacturers (Truck, Water, Air) Private Port Directories (Water) DRI Industrial Production Indices (Truck, water, air) HPMS Database (Truck) Truck Configuration estimates (Truck) National Highway Network (NHN) Agricultural Production Statistics (USDA) Trade Association Production & Shipment Reports (Truck, water, air) US Geological Survey Mineral Industry Reports (Truck, water) Reebie Associates Freight Locater/InfoUSA Street-Address Industrial Employment & Activity (Truck) County Population Data (Truck) Inter-Industry Trade Patterns (Input/Output Table) (Truck, Air) Motor Carrier Industry Financial & Operating Statistics (Truck) Railroad Industry Proprietary Rebill Factors (Truck) Vehicle Inventory and Use Survey (Truck) Latin American Trade and Transportation Study (LATTS) – All Modes State Traffic Count Data (Truck)

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 5 FAF Development Initial Commodity Database Delivered - 00 Commodity Forecast Developed - 01 Additional Commodity Database Elements Highway Capacity Database

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 6 Development of Domestic Commodity Database (tons) Estimate State Economic Activity Estimate County Economic Activity Residual - Truck RailWaterTruckAir Apply Forecasted Growth Rates County to County Freight Flows

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 7 Development of International Commodity Database (tons) Estimate O/D using Supplemental Databases Estimate Residual Flows using Domestic Traffic Patterns Border and Maritime Data Apply Forecasted Growth Rates County to County Freight Flows

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 8 Freight Forecast Development Top-down analysis  National freight tonnage flows, 1980 through 1998  2-digit STCC commodities  Reduced form equations and forecasts for 2020 Bottom-up analysis  29 “regions” MSAs and 9 Census divisions  2-digit STCC commodities by mode  Linked to business demographics, business transactions, and trade flows  Constrained to national freight tonnage forecasts

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 9 Development of FAF Capacity Analysis Need to understand relationship between capacity and demand  Developed capacity estimates for Highways  Developed ability to manipulate truck flows on a national scale  Unable to determine national capacity models for other modes

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 10 Highway Capacity Analysis Approach Conversion of truck tonnage to truck trips Traffic flow map Assign base case (1998) freight Calibrate network & flow with traffic flow data Assign forecast freight (2010 and 2020) Commercial Truck Traffic Patterns Freight network and impedance

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations How Has the FAF been used to Date National Policy Analysis Support localized Freight Studies Public Awareness of Freight Activity Specialized Freight Analysis

Red lines indicate Interstate Sections. Blue lines indicate all other roads.

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 16

Estimated Peak Period Congestion, 1998

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 19 Projected Change in Truck Flow from Collapse of Webbers Falls, OK (Regional)

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 20 Projected National Truck Flow Changes from Collapse of Webbers Falls, OK

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 21 Items Released from the FAF Data release –  Commodity Database – State to State flows, by Mode, Domestic/International, for 2 Digit STCC, 1998, 2010, 2020  Highway Capacity Database – Segment level traffic counts of total vehicles, total trucks and estimated FAF trucks, estimated capacity Maps of freight activity for nation, states, selected metro areas and gateways State Freight Profiles

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations What Have We Learned?

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 23 The FAF Outputs Successful in conveying importance of freight. Developed a benchmark for regional studies. Illustrated a basic lack of national transportation data at a localized level. Need for a freight analytical tool for various projects and studies. The maps have been the most useful product to date.

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 24 Who are the FAF’s Users? Federal Highway Administration Other DOT Offices (FMCSA, MarAd) State DOT’s MPO’s Multistate coalitions Trade Associations Transportation Providers Other Federal Government Users (DOD\ Homeland Security-Commerce, USDA, INS)

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 25 Working with non Federal Offices Limited release because of data agreement with Reebie  Only State to State Commodity flows by mode  Loaded Truck Networks  Maps  Total truck counts for all MPO’s (spreadsheet) Working with some states on freight data issues The FAF and the Local Research  The FAF is a supplement, not a replacement, for local knowledge  Users need to understand how to link local knowledge and the FAF

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 26 There is a need for a national level transportation information that provides information on: When and where is the truck (or rail car) operating? What does the vehicle carry? What is the true movement of the cargo, including intermediate shipments? Where are the freight terminals? How many trucks are moving on the system? What is exposure to congestion, incidents, nature, safety? How does freight influence system use, and conversely, how does system use influence freight?

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 27 The FAF can not answer all questions Annual basis Forecast is somewhat dated State traffic counts do not match with HPMS Databases Unable to assign all trucks to FAF Commodities Only a national or regional analysis with some degree of certainty, not a localized, specific planning tool.

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations Future Product Development

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 29 The Freight Toolkit – Methodology, User Guides and Summary reports Truck Counts for each State and MPO region Additional maps and analysis of congestion, trucking activity Highlight linkages to other traffic planning/policy modules Re-releasing the Highway Capacity Network with total tons and value for each segment. Look at adding economic variables to the database. GeoFreight with BTS and the Office of the Secretary

Federal Highway Administration Office of Freight Management and Operations 30 We are developing a “freight toolbox” but: Are these the correct tools? How does the FAF link to other FHWA, DOT data and analytical research efforts? Will these tools be sufficient to program projects that are beneficial to freight? Can tools be developed to effectively address the wide range of local, State, multi-state, national, and international needs? Can we develop Expertise at all levels to assist people in making effective decisions; Federal, State, MPO