Larval Connectivity Talk Goals 1.) INTRODUCE A NEW FLOW DATASET 2.) COMPARE WITH OLD 3.) STATISTICS... SOME WAYS OF VISUALIZING THE DATA

What is it again? Probabilities... Connectivity The fraction of larvae transported to x x y

Larval Connectivity... What do I want to do with this? 1.) MAKE continuous CONNECTIVITY PATTERNS (CHRIS...) 2.) MAKE point CONNECTIVITY FOR EMPIRICAL COMPARISONS (JENN...) 3.) LOOK AT behavior (THIS MODEL IS 3D) - (CROW, SARA, SATOSHI, DANIELLE) 4.) MATCH UP WITH SATELLITE SSC IMAGERY AND UNDERSTAND LARVAL survivability (ME...) 5.) FIND physical features THAT RELATE TO LARVAL SUPPLY/PRODUCTION (TIM...) 6.) SIMULATE gene flow (ME, CROW, KIM)

FIRST - Get a Model 1, thanks Charles Dong, UCLA m m

CHARLES’ 1km grid resolution SOCAL Bight nested domain 3 hourly temporal resolution 3D - 40 vertical layers LEO’S 5km grid resolution Santa B. Channel nested domain 6 hourly 2D

depth (m) km depth (m) km 0 Charles’, Fully 3D Leo’s, Fully 2D

Wind Forcing Captures actual events but unlike the old dataset this not an assimilation model

Source/Destination Patches 87 of them

Lagrangian particle tracking 2002 only so far, getting 1998 Particle time step is 1hr There is no boundary reflectance, if they hit the land they stick Longitude Lat SSH

Point Release, Release Timing Released on Jan. 1 Release location Released on Jan. 21 Release location 30 days later

Point Release, Release Timing Released on Jan. 1 Release location Released on Jan. 1 Release location 30 days later Vertical position: stay near surfaceVertical position: passive transport

Time (in time steps, 800 = 90 days) Temp (deg C) Depth (m)

Boundary Crossing 2.2% of particles sticked on masked regions Reducing the time stepping from 1 hour to 30 min does not help (2.2%) How can we avoid this? Does this change connectivity?

Definition of Settlement & Connectivity Settlement is defined as after a pre- competency time window (e.g. 10days) 1st Discrete Habitat Patch

Potential Source Power Connectivity (1) - JANUARY Patches No. Settlers Day 10 competent

Connectivity Matrixes JANUARYJUNE PLD - 30 days Competent after 10 days SOURCE DESTINATION

Potential Export Power Summing over the Connectivity Matrix JANUARY Potential Import Power

Summing over the Connectivity Matrix JUNE Potential Export Power Potential Import Power

Satoshi’s Results Lagrangian particle tracking

Identify habitat BETWEEN M DEPTH

IMPORT PROBABILITY DENSITY

EXPORT PROBABILITY DENSITY

Conclusions 1.) NEW FLOW IS BETTER THAN OLD