POLITICS IN MEXICO LUIS ESTRADA Spring quarter 2005 March 28-April 1 st

Overview 1 st part of the course: Historical review 1 st part of the course: Historical review (Conquest-Independence-Reform-Porfiriato- Revolution-PRI hegemony-Presidential election in 2000) (Conquest-Independence-Reform-Porfiriato- Revolution-PRI hegemony-Presidential election in 2000) 2 nd part of the course: Contemporary challenges 2 nd part of the course: Contemporary challenges (Branches of power-Political institutions-Foreign relations-Voting behavior) (Branches of power-Political institutions-Foreign relations-Voting behavior)

MEXICO 13 th most populated nation (106 million- 2005) 13 th most populated nation (106 million- 2005) 14 th largest economy (GDP billion- 2003) 14 th largest economy (GDP billion- 2003) 5 th Oil producer (3.79 million barrels/day- 2003) 5 th Oil producer (3.79 million barrels/day- 2003) World’s leading producer of several products (from silver to avocados) World’s leading producer of several products (from silver to avocados)

But … 40 percent of the population lives in EXTREME poverty 40 percent of the population lives in EXTREME poverty Fourth richest man (Forbes) Fourth richest man (Forbes) Minimum wage: $0.50 USD per hour Minimum wage: $0.50 USD per hour A gallon of gasoline costs DOUBLE in Mexico City than in La Jolla A gallon of gasoline costs DOUBLE in Mexico City than in La Jolla

Why? A nation full of contrasts: economic, social, political A nation full of contrasts: economic, social, political Historical reasons Historical reasons Current decisions Current decisions Cultural values Cultural values OBJECTIVE: Explain the origins of such disparities and understand present dynamics OBJECTIVE: Explain the origins of such disparities and understand present dynamics

MEXICO TODAY Independence: Sep. 16, 1810 Independence: Sep. 16, 1810 Revolution: Nov. 20, 1910 Revolution: Nov. 20, years of PRI hegemony at the national level (ended in 2000) 71 years of PRI hegemony at the national level (ended in 2000) Federal Republic (Presidential): 31 states and 1 federal district Federal Republic (Presidential): 31 states and 1 federal district Lower Chamber: 500 Deputies (300-SMD; 200-PR) Lower Chamber: 500 Deputies (300-SMD; 200-PR) Upper Chamber: 128 Senators (64-1 st plurality, 32-2 nd plurality, 32-PR) Upper Chamber: 128 Senators (64-1 st plurality, 32-2 nd plurality, 32-PR)

MEXICO TODAY Presidents and State Governors elected every six years (‘sexenio’), no reelection Presidents and State Governors elected every six years (‘sexenio’), no reelection Local and Federal Deputies elected every three years, no consecutive reelection Local and Federal Deputies elected every three years, no consecutive reelection Senators elected every six years, no consecutive reelection Senators elected every six years, no consecutive reelection Municipal presidents elected every three years, no consecutive reelection Municipal presidents elected every three years, no consecutive reelection

MEXICO TODAY Next Presidential elections: 2006 Next Presidential elections: 2006 Political situation is polarized after the 1 st PRI defeat in seven decades Political situation is polarized after the 1 st PRI defeat in seven decades Either the PRI, PAN, or PRD presidential candidate can win Either the PRI, PAN, or PRD presidential candidate can win No improvement despite controlling recurrent economic crisis of end of ‘sexenio’ No improvement despite controlling recurrent economic crisis of end of ‘sexenio’

PRD: Andrés Manuel López-Obrador

PAN: Santiago Creel

PRI: Roberto Madrazo?

AVISOS Required texts: Krauze, and Dillon and Preston Required texts: Krauze, and Dillon and Preston Reader: universityreaders.com Reader: universityreaders.com weber.ucsd.edu/~lmestrad/ps134b.htm weber.ucsd.edu/~lmestrad/ps134b.htm TA: Alejandra Ríos-Cázares TA: Alejandra Ríos-Cázares Tuesday 3/29 IOA, Comparing Mexican and American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Tuesday 3/29 IOA, Comparing Mexican and American Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Wednesday 3/30 IOA, Denise Dresser’ book presentation (3:30-5:00 pm) Wednesday 3/30 IOA, Denise Dresser’ book presentation (3:30-5:00 pm)