Spatial Indices of Upwelling 1) Coastal Topography

Premise Average spatial patterns of coastal ocean processes are strongly influenced by topography and bathymetry

How to quantify coastal topography?

‘Coastal Anomaly’ Broitman and Kinlan 2006 MEPS, In press

BaysHeadlands

(Embayments) (Headlands) Normalized residual from smoothed coast COASTAL STRUCTURE Along-coast Distance (km) Scale of Smoothing (km)

Smoothing Scale=1000 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

Smoothing Scale=50 km COASTAL STRUCTURE

S. Africa WNAChile Coastal Topographic Index

Easily calculated Data readily available Arbitrarily high resolution Can index processes at multiple scales Indirect index; index of upwelling or any other process depends on nature of coupling Not dynamic (no time component) Oversimplified? Cons Pros

SST

Spatial Indices of Upwelling 2) SST-derived indices

time longitude latitude Coastal SST

Latitudinal mean at each pixel

Topographic Index and dSST Spatial Series

C) Topo vs. Δ SST Correlation between Topo and dSST indices

Correlation with Bakun Regional Index

Ecosystem Structure

Spatial patterns of kelp and phytoplankton Biomass Areal cover

chl-a vs. kelp Spatial Cross-Correlations

A) Topo vs. kelp B) Topo vs. chl-a C) Topo vs. Δ SST Spatial Cross-Correlations

Jones et al 1988, Cont Shelf Res

Approximately the same characteristic scale Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

VariableNugget (SE)Sill (SE)Range (SE) (km) Kelp0.35 (0.09)0.65 (0.09)188 (100) Chl-a0.13 (0.08)0.87 (0.08)178 (34) ΔSST † (0.007)0.992 (0.007)151 (18) Coast Anomaly0.04 (0.03)0.96 (0.03)161 (40) Alongcoast scales: Variogram Analysis

Onshore Community Patterns

South Africa 58 sites along 2000 km of coast WNA 73 sites along 6000 km of coast Chile 26 sites 1000 km of coast

What scale of coastal features matter to the process you’re interested in? Correlation between variable of interest and topographic index at each smoothing scale

Along-coast Lag Distance (km) Cross-Correlation Scale of pattern is just part of the question 15 km in the poleward direction

Correlations with Coastal Anomaly – South Africa

Correlation with Coastal Anomaly – Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

Chile – Upwelling-Recruitment Dynamics Seen in Bare Space?

Coastal Topography and Physical Forcing CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Mussels CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

Correlation with Coastal Anomaly: Trophic Grps CHILE SOUTH AFRICA

Long-term Average Recruitment vs. Topography at 21 Coastal Sites Green=Chthamalus Black=Balanus

Balanus r2=0.84, p< Multiple regression with: Topo10km, Topo150km, Coastal Coordinate (linear latitudinal trend)

Other processes correlated with topography

Aside… Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling for Data Integration & Complex Hypothesis Testing

Santa Barbara Offshore Ocean Nearshore Ocean Site 3 Site 4 Site 2 Site 1 Offshore Larval Pool

Santa Barbara Offshore OceanNearshore Ocean Recruitment Offshore Larval Pool Sea Temp (SST) Chlorophyll A Current Recruitment 16 points in time, each describing previous month

 0,  1, m 2 R it ~Poisson(F t H it e  i ) k,S Likelihood: Parameters: Priors: N(0,10 -3 ) vague Data: SST t-TS G it R it IG(10 -3, ) vague N(0,10 -3 ) vague Links: F t = k + S TS *SST t-TS Logit(H it )=  0 +  1 G it +  g  g ~N(0,m 2 )  i ~N(0,  2 ) IG(2,10) informative 22  TS=0 2 i = space index, t = time index Offshore Larval Pool Onshore Delivery Combine these to get Recruitment

Chl, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Gamma SST, gate+errror, Poisson SST, gate+errror, Poisson, site effects