UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ Dynamical method (GloSea4)

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Presentation transcript:

UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Statistical method (May SST) forecast NAO+ Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature. Met Office Seasonal Forecasts for winter 2009/10 Plots from UK Met Office and NOAA ESRL Mike Blackburn Seasonal Climate Discussion 14 April 2010

Met Office NAO Statistical Forecast Rodwell and Folland (2002)

Met Office NAO Statistical Forecast Did the Spring SST anomalies re-emerge in Autumn?  yes and no.… November 2009

Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis Z500 NCEP Reanalysis Forecast for JFM

NCEP Reanalysis Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis P MSL Forecast for JFM

NCEP Reanalysis Dynamical DJF Forecast versus NCEP reanalysis T 2M Forecast for JFM

UK Met Office seasonal forecast “warm winter”, based on >33% probability of warm tercile. Dynamical method (GloSea4) forecast strong NAO-, but warmer than average UK temperature Why?  Forecast pattern did not extend east into Europe  Old climatology: no account of warming trend? Met Office Seasonal Forecast

Lagged impacts in 2010? Arctic sea-ice

Lagged impacts in 2010? NOAA Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Eurasian snow cover

- END -

20pt text Title 16pt text Reference (200X) December 2009January 2010February 2010 DJF average

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