Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

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Presentation transcript:

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2007 Water Year UW Climate Impacts Group October 3, 2006, Kelso, WA

Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

Introduction UW Forecast System forecast/westwide/ Developing “focus regions” -- Klamath R. basin -- Yakima R. basin -- Feather R. basin -- WA State 1/16

Experimental W. US Hydrologic Forecast System Soil Moisture Initial Condition Snowpack Initial Condition

Experimental Western US Hydrologic Forecast System ESP ENSO/PDO ENSO CPC Official Outlooks NCEP CFS CAS OCN SMLR CCA CA NSIPP/GMAO dynamical model VIC Hydrolog y Model NOAA NASA UW Multiple Seasonal Climate Forecast Data Sources

Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting ICs Spin-upForecast obs recently observed meteorological data ensemble of met. data to generate forecast hydrologic state

targeted statistics e.g., runoff volumes monthly hydrographs spatial forecast maps

Flow location maps give access to monthly hydrograph plots, and also to raw forecast data. Clicking the stream flow forecast map also accesses current basin-averaged conditions Applications: streamflow Introduction

Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

Average annual water cycle The PNW hydrologic cycle PNW Where we are now on average  soil moisture near annual low  runoff near low  nearly all water year precipitation yet to come  snow season not really underway  evaporation not a factor

The PNW hydrologic cycle  water balance Note that there is variability in soil moisture now… current

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Dalles: 100 / 88 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Priest Rapids: 101 / 89 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Snake: 96 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Snake: 96 / 83 El Nino flow deficits come in April through July

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Upper Snake: 95 / 83 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Waneta: 99 / 84 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Arrow: 101 / 92 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Forecasts of April-September Flow Mica Dam: 101 / 93 ESPESP - El Nino

Sep 1 ESP / ESP-El Nino fcst: Summer Volumes Arrow: 101 / 92 El Nino flow deficits come in June and July

Presentation Outline 1. Introduction: UW Experimental Hydrologic Forecasting System 2. Water Year 2007 Outlook 3. Water Year 2006 Assessment

Recap WY2006, Dec. 1 hydrologic conditions Soil MoistureSWE

Recap WY2006, Jan. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Feb. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Mar. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Apr. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, May. 1 hydrologic conditions

Recap WY2006, Jul. 1 hydrologic conditions

Oct. 1 Soil Moisture Comparison THIS YEAR LAST YEARTHIS YEAR

Other views of changing hydrologic conditions forecast/monitor/ Soil moisture change in last month

Soil Moisture for last 2 weeks The daily update of surface conditions enables animationed views of recent changes

Recap WY2006, Related Snow Plots Observed SWEChange in last month

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Winter : seasonal volume forecast for APR-SEP flow OBS Forecasts made on 1 st of Month

Understanding Uncertainty All those whose duty it is to issue regular daily forecasts know that there are times when they feel very confident and other times when they are doubtful as to the coming weather. It seems to me that the condition of confidence or otherwise forms a very important part of the prediction, and ought to find expression. -W.E. Cooke (1906)

Calibrating Model Forecast Uncertainty J F M A M Models are overconfident Statistical calibration of outputs can add needed uncertainty to forecasts

Understanding Uncertainty