Trade in Mediterranean Products: The Effects of United States Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreements Cal Med Consortium Workshop Mediterranean Products in the WTO Trade Negotiations and Trade Disputes and in Regional Trade Agreements Fumiko Yamazaki & Mechel S. Paggi* Montpellier, France 26, June, 2006 Fumiko Yamazaki, Senior Research Economist and Mechel S. Paggi, Director Center for Agricultural Business, California State University, Fresno

Overview of U.S. Regional and Bi-Lateral Trade Agreements Time Horizons and Why (Perhaps?) Process for Selecting FTA Candidates Part 1

Australia ‘04 Bahrain ‘04 CAFTA-DR ‘04 Chile ‘04 FTAA ‘? Morocco ‘04 Southern African Customs Union ‘05 Singapore ‘03 Jordan ‘03 U.S. Regional and Bilateral Trade Agreements NAFTA ‘94 Israel ‘85 CUSTA, ‘89 Peru FTA ’05, Columbia, Bolivia, Ecuador: Andean Trade Promotion Agreement Panama ‘05 Thailand ‘05

“Competitive Liberalization” 2001 Doha Drags On TPA Expiration 2007 Fast Track Lapses

Trade Agreements Approved under Fast Track Tokyo Round GATT Agreements—1979 U.S.-Israel FTA—1985 U.S.-Canada FTA—1988 North American Free Trade Agreements—1993 Uruguay Round WTO Agreements—1994 Trade Agreements in the Interim Period Jordan FTA

Trade Agreements Initiated Under Trade Promotion Authority Australia FTA Chile FTA Bahrain FTA Andean Trade Promotion: Peru, Columbia, Ecuador, Bolivia CAFTA- DR: Costa Rica, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua El Salvador & Dominican Republic Malaysia FTA Morocco FTA Oman FTA Panama FTA Republic of Korea FTA Singapore FTA * Thailand FTA United Arab Emirates FTA Southern African Customs Union FTA: Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa & Swaziland FTAA ? 14 Agreements 26 Countries

Agriculture 1 Voice in the Room, Similar General Trade Policy Discussions

Country readiness. Country readiness involves the country’s political will, trade capabilities, and rule of law systems. Economic/Commercial benefit. The interagency group reviews the likely economic benefit to the United States. Benefits to the broader trade liberalization strategy. This factor relates to the prospective FTA partner’s overall support for U.S. trade goals. Compatibility with U.S. interests. A potential FTA partner is examined for its compatibility with broad U.S. interests, including its support for U.S. foreign policy positions. Congressional/Private-sector support. the extent to which a particular FTA selection has garnered support from the Congress, business groups, and civil society. U.S. government resource constraints. This factor focuses primarily on constraints at USTR—what regional office is available to lead the negotiation, what staff are available, etc. Six Selection Criteria Guides for a Potential FTA Partner

Keeping Up With the Jones's : Trade Preference Parity* Chile * See CAFTA Report for Detail Analysis of Effects

Part 2 Basics of Mediterranean Products Trade U.S. Trade in Mediterranean Products & Links to FTAs  Trade by FTA Category  Country Specific Trade  Product Mix & Suppliers

U.S Trade Agreement Negotiation Status Categories  FTA-E Agreement is Already Implemented Israel, NAFTA, Jordon, Singapore, Australia, Chile Morocco and CAFTA-DR (El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua)  FTA-S Negotiations Completed Bahrain, Oman, Columbia, Peru, CAFTA-DR (Costa Rica Dominican Republic and Guatemala)  FTA-N Negotiations are underway FTAA Countries nes, SACU Countries, Ecuador, Thailand UAE, Republic of Korea, Panama and Malaysia

Country Specific Trade

Product Specific Trade

Commodity/Country Specific Trade Imports

Commodity/Country Specific Trade Exports

Part 3 What Did We Learn? What Does it Suggest? Where Might We Go Next?

What Did We Learn? The US flurry of Activity of Late Due to Strategic Initiative, Sense of Urgency related to Expiration of TPA and Concern Over Progress in Multilateral Negotiations Existing FTAs Largest Contributor to Mediterranean Product Trade, but Non-FTA Countries are Major Contributors to Imports and Dominate in Exports Limited Product Mix from Limited Number of Individual Country Suppliers Potential Role of New FTA Participants Somewhat Limited

What Does it Suggest? Regional and Bilateral Agreements Provide Some Advantages Preferential Tariffs Enhance Market Access Tariff Parity with Competitors Often Considerations Exists Beyond Agriculture Not a Substitute for WTO (export subsidies, domestic subsidies) For the US Create Market Access With Little Additional Costs (CAFTA-DR Example) Ability to Craft Specifics to Deal With Sensitive Product Problems (US-Australia and the Phantom Sugar) Where Might We Go Next?

Modeling Efforts for Quantitative Estimates, Welfare Analysis, etc. Issues Related to Trade Diversion vs. Trade Creation Potential for Agreements Between Major Players (Japan, EU, ?) Mediterranean Product Specific Focus on Other Issues Role of GI’s, Phytosanitary Barriers, Trade Disputes So Don’t Miss the Other Presentations