Providing Help with Statistical Concepts and Terms: Enhanced Glossary and Ontology Stephanie W. Haas Ron Brown Cristina Pattuelli

Development of Enhanced Glossary term contentformatcontext specificity presentationsuser control ontology

Terms Include terms that users frequently encounter on agency sites, not comprehensive dictionary Basic level of statistical literacy, not highly technical resource Strategies for term identification –examination of frequently-visited pages –anecdotal evidence from agency and non-agency consultants –metadata user study –webcrawl of agency sites

Content Provide basic level of explanation May include: –definition –example –brief tutorial –demonstration –interactive simulation –combination May incorporate related terms and concepts Give pointers to more complete and/or more technical explanations

Context specificity Explanations provided at varying levels of specificity –General, context-free, “universal” –Agency or concept-specific, incorporating entities from agriculture, labor, science R&D, energy, etc. –Table- or statistic-specific, based on a single row, column, or statistic, e.g., CPI, national death rate, gasoline prices in NY state, etc.

Provide explanations of term or concept that are as relevant to user’s current context as possible. When user invokes help on a term, the most specific explanations available are offered. If there is no explanation for that specific statistic or table, more general (e.g., agency-specific) ones are offered. Default is “universal” level. Path from specific to general is based on the ontology.

Format User can choose desired format of explanation, based on interest, learning style, reading level, hardware/software limitations –text –text plus audio (narration) –graphic –animation –interactive

User Control Make glossary help attractive and accessible Help users understand the statistics they find without interrupting their information-seeking task Let users know when help is available Let users choose the format and specificity they desire Control mechanisms, e.g., means of invocation and termination, pop-up windows, mouse-overs, etc.

Creating the Ontology Select ontology editor to meet our needs Include terms and concepts to support glossary. –May need “connecting nodes” that aren’t in glossary Relationships –standard – isa, instance, etc. –domain-specific – predicts, smoothes, etc. Visualization tools for end users (future work)

Ontology support for glossary Relationships support design and display of term explanations Specificity of explanations –inheritance of more general explanations Explanation templates –sample: samples for specific surveys –index: CPI, Antiknock Index Related terms – incorporation into tutorial –population, sample

Current Coverage adjustment –universal –age adjustment - FL death rates –seasonal adjustment - NY unemployment rate index –universal, CPI, Antiknock index population, parameter, sample, statistic –universal, weekly gasoline prices, NY state weekly gasoline prices, height & weight of U.S. adult residents

Mock-ups

Suppose this picture represents the population of people in the entire country. In this population, a certain percentage (p) of people like dogs. In this example, 10 people like dogs. P is the parameter that measures this view of the population. It is the value that you would get if you could survey the entire population. 20% of the people in this population like dogs. Dislikes dogs Likes dogs p = 10/50 =.2 = 20% population & sample (1) Population

In real life it is difficult to survey the entire population so we take a sample. We can then count the number of people in the sample who like dogs, and calculate a statistic (P*) that is an estimate of the value of p. In this case, P* overestimates the value of the parameter p. Dislikes dogs Likes dogs population & sample (2) Sample p = 10/50 =.2 = 20%P * = 3/10 =.3 = 30% Population

EIA weekly gasoline prices Every Monday, retail prices for all three grades of gasoline are collected by telephone from a sample of approximately 900 retail gasoline outlets. Reported in: Weekly U.S. Retail Gasoline Prices, Regular Grade Dollars per gallon, including all taxes

text example of population and sample for this table graphical example of population and sample for this table

population: all retail gasoline outlets sample: 900 retail gasoline outlets regular gasoline, mean price/gallon, 9/30/02 = $1.413 graphical example of population & sample, gasoline prices

text example of sample for NY graphical example of sample for NY

$$ 9/30/02 sample of New York retail gasoline outlets mean cost = $1.529 per gallon graphical example of sample, NY gasoline prices

graphical example of population and sample for body measurements

graphical example of population and sample for body measurements each participant represents approximately 50,000 other U.S. residents 5,000 individuals are surveyed annually

Population is_described_by mean standard_deviation Parameter Sample Is part of sample_mean sample_standard_deviation Statistic is_described_by Is a predictor of

Population is_described_by mean standard_deviation Parameter Sample Is part of sample_mean sample_standard_deviation Statistic is_described_by Is a predictor of

Population Sample Is part of U.S. residents NY State retail gasoline outlets U.S. retail gasoline outlets 5,000 U.S. residents/yr 900 U.S. retail gasoline outlets n NY State retail gasoline outlets Is part of instance of U.S. R&D companies n U.S. R&D companies Is part of

Index An index combines numbers measuring different things into a single number. The single number represents all the different measures in a compact, easy-to-use form. Values for an index can be compared to each other, for example, over time. combiner index =

Jan. combiner Apr. combiner Jul. combiner Oct. combiner The index has increased this year.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) represents changes in prices of all goods and services produced for consumption by urban households. It combines prices into a single number that can be compared over time. Items are classified into 8 major groups: Food and Beverages Housing Apparel Transportation Medical Care Recreation Education and Communication Other

Consumer Price Index medical care other CPI combiner transportation food & beverage apparel recreationhousing education & communication

The Consumer Price Index has increased since CPI Combiner 1998 CPI Combiner 1999 CPI Combiner 2000 CPI Combiner 2001 CPI Combiner

Antiknock Index, also known as Octane Rating A number used to indicate gasoline’s antiknock performance in motor vehicle engines. The two recognized laboratory engine test methods for determining the antiknock rating, i.e., octane rating, of gasolines are the Research method and the Motor method. In the United States, to provide a single number as guidance to the consumer, the antiknock index (R+M)/2, which is the average of the Research and Motor octane numbers, was developed.

Research method Motor method Antiknock Index, also known as Octane Rating Regular: Midrange: Premium: 90 or above (R + M)/2 Antiknock Combiner

Next Steps expand coverage of core terms –webcrawl indicates measures of central tendency are next: average, mean, median, mode expand coverage of ontology expand presentation examples –animations, simulations explore user controls user study of effectiveness