1. Capital Budgeting and Financial Planning Course Instructor: M.Jibran Sheikh Contact info: jibransheikh@comsats.edu.pk

2. 2 Inflation and Its Impact on Project Cash Flows Meaning and Measure of Inflation Equivalence Calculations under Inflation Effects of Inflation on Project Cash Flows Rate of Return Analysis under Inflation

3. 3 Inflation and Economic Analysis What is inflation? How do we measure inflation? How do we incorporate the effect of inflation in economic analysis?

4. 4 What is Inflation? Value of Money Earning Power Purchasing Power Earning Power Purchasing power Investment Opportunity Decrease in purchasing power (inflation) Increase in purchasing Power (deflation)

5. 5 Purchasing Power 1990 $100 1990 2001 $100 You could buy 50 Big Macs in year 1990. You can only buy 40 Big Macs in year 2001. $2.00 / unit $2.50 / unit 25% Price change due to inflation The $100 in year 2001 has only $80 worth purchasing power of 1990

6. 6 -2 -1 0 1 $100 -2 -1 0 1 $100 You could purchase 63.69 gallons of unleaded gasoline a year ago. You can now purchase 80 gallons of unleaded gas. $1.57 / gallon$1.25 / gallon Price change due to deflation 20.38%

7. 7 Price Increase Due to Inflation Item1967 Price2000 Price% Increase Consumer price index (CPI)100512.9413 Monthly housing expense$114.31$943.97726 Monthly automobile expense82.69471.38470 Loaf of bread.221.84736 Pound of hamburger.392.98564 Pound of coffee.594.10595 Candy bar.100.90800 Men’s dress shirt5.0039.00680 Postage (first-class)0.050.33660 Annual public college tuition294.003,960.001,247

8. 8 Inflation Terminology - I Producer Price Index: a statistical measure of industrial price change, compiled monthly by the BLS, U.S. Department of Labor Consumer Price Index: a statistical measure of change, over time, of the prices of goods and services in major expenditure groups—such as food, housing, apparel, transportation, and medical care—typically purchased by urban consumers Average Inflation Rate (f): a single rate that accounts for the effect of varying yearly inflation rates over a period of several years. General Inflation Rate ( ): the average inflation rate calculated based on the CPI for all items in the market basket.

9. 9 Measuring Inflation Consumer Price Index (CPI): the CPI compares the cost of a sample “market basket” of goods and services in a specific period relative to the cost of the same “market basket” in an earlier reference period. This reference period is designated as the base period. Market basket Base Period (1967) 2001 $100$512.9 CPI for 2001 = 512.9

10. 10 Selected Price Indexes Year Base Period New CPI 1982-84 Old CPI 1967 Gasoline 1982 Steel 1982 Passenger Car 1982 1991135.2405.166.9110.6124.2 1992139.5417.965.6107.1127.3 1993144.0461.267.9106.7129.8 1994147.4441.459.5111.9133.3 1995152.2455.067.7121.7134.0 1996156.6468.276.4114.9135.2 1997160.2479.772.7116.4135.2 1998162.5487.154.0115.4132.2 1999166.2497.864.4105.3121.4 2000171.2512.992.6109.8133.4

11. 11 Average Inflation Rate (f) Fact: Base Price = $100 (year 0) Inflation rate (year 1) = 4% Inflation rate (year 2) = 8% Average inflation rate over 2 years? Step 1: Find the actual inflated price at the end of year 2. $100 ( 1 + 0.04) ( 1 + 0.08) = $112.32 Step 2: Find the average inflation rate by solving the following equivalence equation. $100 ( 1+ f) = $112.32 f = 5.98% 2 $100 $112.32 0101 2

12. 12 Average Inflation Rate Item 1967 Price2000 PriceAverage Inflation Rate Consumer price index (CPI) 100512.95.07% Monthly housing expense $114.31$943.976.61 Monthly automobile expense 82.69471.385.42 Loaf of bread 0.221.846.64 Pound of hamburger 0.392.986.36 Pound of coffee 0.594.106.05 Candy bar 0.100.906.88 Men’s dress shirt 5.0039.006.42 Postage (first-class) 0.050.335.89 Annual public college tuition 294.003,960.008.19

13. 13 General Inflation Rate (f) Average inflation rate based on the CPI

14. 14 Example 13.2: Yearly and Average Inflation Rates YearCost 0$504,000 1538,000 2577,000 3629,500 What are the annual inflation rates and the average inflation rate over 3 years? Solution Inflation rate during year 1 (f 1 ): ($538,400 - $504,000) / $504,000 = 6.83%. Inflation rate during year 2 (f 2 ): ($577,000 - $538,400) / $538,400 = 7.17 %. Inflation rate during year 3 (f 3 ): ($629,500 - $577,000) / $577,000 = 9.10%. The average inflation rate over 3 years is

15. 15 Inflation Terminology – II Actual Dollars (A n ): Estimates of future cash flows for year n that take into account any anticipated changes in amount caused by inflationary or deflationary effects. Constant Dollars (A n ’ ): Estimates of future cash flows for year n in constant purchasing power, independent of the passage of time (or base period).

16. 16 Conversion from Constant to Actual Dollars $1,000 (1 + 0.08) = $1,260 3 Constant Dollars $1,000 3 Actual Dollars $1,260 3

17. 17 Conversion from Constant to Actual Dollars PeriodNet Cash Flow in Constant $ Conversion Factor Cash Flow in Actual $ 0-$250,000(1+0.05) 0 -$250,000 1100,000(1+0.05) 1 105,000 2110,000(1+0.05) 2 121,275 3120,000(1+0.05) 3 138,915 4130,000(1+0.05) 4 158,016 5120,000(1+0.05) 5 153,154

18. 18 0 12345 0 12345 $250,000 $105,000 $121,275 $138,915 $158,016 $153,154 Years (b) Actual dollars $250,000 $100,000 $110,000 $120,000 $130,000 $120,000 Years (a) Constant dollars $250,000(1+0.05) 0 $100,000(1+0.05) $110,000(1+0.05) 2 $120,000(1+0.05) 3 $130,000(1+0.05) 4 $120,000(1+0.05) 5

19. 19 Conversion from Actual to Constant Dollars Constant Dollars $1,260 (1 + 0.08) = $1,000 -3 $1,000 3 Actual Dollars $1,260 3

20. 20 Conversion from Actual to Constant Dollars End of period Cash Flow in Actual $ Conversion at f = 5% Cash Flow in Constant $ Loss in Purchasing Power 0-$20,000(1+0.05) 0 -$20,0000% 120,000(1+0.05) -1 -19,0484.76 220,000(1+0.05) -2 -18,1419.30 320,000(1+0.05) -3 -17,27713.62 420,000(1+0.05) -4 -16,45417.73

21. 21 Equivalence Calculation Under Inflation 1.Types of Interest Rate 2.Types of Cash Flow 3.Types of Analysis Method Market Interest rate (i) Inflation-free interest rate (i’) In Constant Dollars In Actual Dollars Constant Dollar Analysis Actual Dollar Analysis Deflation Method Adjusted-discount method

22. 22 Inflation Terminology - III Inflation-free Interest Rate (i’): an estimate of the true earning power of money when the inflation effects have been removed (also known as real interest rate). Market interest rate (i): interest rate which takes into account the combined effects of the earning value of capital and any anticipated changes in purchasing power (also known as inflation- adjusted interest rate).