Benchmarking Chapter 8

PAF101 PAF 101 “The future is made of the same stuff as the present.” ~Simone Weil Module 4, Lecture 2

Overview of Benchmarking Provide Historical Data on Societal Problem Calculate Percent Change Using Excel Decide on Years to Use in Your Benchmarks Make a Baseline Forecast Setting Your Benchmark Use Benchmarks to Support Policy Proposal

TAKE NOTES Put Ch. 8 in your right hand Put Exercise in your left hand My slides will use this information

Ex. 8.1: Historical Data 4 Years ending in most recent calendar year One piece of real data at a minimum Provide source or rationale Where Have You Already Done This?

8.2 Do Percent Change for the following Years: 1. Between the 1 st and 2 nd year 2. Between the 2 nd and 3 rd year 3. Between the 3 rd and 4 th year 4. Between the 1 st and 4 th year

Ex. 8.2: How to Calculate Percent Change Percent Change equals [(new figure – old figure) ÷ old figure] x 100 Ex: 15.4% = [( )/123]*100

By Hand By Excel Here is what the print out will look like if you do it correctly:

Ex. 8.3: Deciding on the Years to Use Benchmarks How many years will it take for the policy to have the intended impact? Choose 3 years Can be consecutive or not Benchmark can be the same or not Citrus U. Example: If policy goes into effect in 2005, start with 2006, 2007, and 2008.

Exercise 8.4: Baseline Forecast Trend if policy does not go into effect Look at historical trend – assume what has happened in past will continue If pattern has been consistent: use percent change or average percent change to make forecast If historical data has inconsistent pattern: Follow ups and downs, keeping overall percentage change the same

Exercise 8.4: Baseline Forecast Cont’d Consider conditions that will change the trend Major outside event (ex: economic growth) Trend approaching outer limit Demographic factors Cyclical pattern

The Trend Line Graph FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS IN CHAPTER 8!!! Graphs in 8.4 and 8.6 – use the corresponding instructions from the ch. 8 sections Read directions carefully + pay attention to detail = NO POINTS LOST

Exercise 8.5: Choosing Benchmarks Pay close attention to baseline forecast Decide how powerful factors contributing to problem are Estimate strength of government resources in implementing Compare to similar areas with similar policies Use authoritative sources

Exercise 8.5: Choosing Benchmarks Cont’d Use the methods in your justifications Three comparisons required using data for at least one year.

Exercise 8.6 Using your Benchmark to support your policy Presentations to players should be short and to the point