Party Nominations

Important questions Why are nominations important to a party? What should a party want in a nominee? Who in the party should decide who the nominee will be? What effect does the selection process have over the relationship between the “party” and the nominee?

How do parties select nominees? In general, primaries

Primary election laws Two basic types: –Open –Closed

Specific types of primaries Open: voter decides in which primary to vote in the voting booth Semi-open: voter decides in which primary to vote at the polling place Semi-closed: unaffiliated voters can vote in primary; voters can change party reg. at polls Closed: party registration required, must register in defined time period Nonpartisan: Top two primary votegetters get into runoff (general) election

How do parties select nominees? In general, primaries Why might primaries be bad for the party? How might the party try to minimize those risks?

What could the party do to influence a primary election? Gerrymander Recruit/Discourage Express unified support for one candidate –(Endorse explicitly where allowed)

Parties unify most often in competitive seats Open-safeOpen- competitive Out-party in competitive incumbent seat Percent of each race type where there is party elite unity around one primary candidate 37%65% 82% Number of races * Difference between open-safe and open-competitive is statistically significant

Nominating a presidential candidate Delegates to the national nominating convention vote on who the nominee will be Delegates are chosen through primaries, caucuses, and conventions Dems/Reeps have different rules for selecting delegates

Delegate Allocation StateClintonObamaHuckabeeRomneyMcCain AL AK AZ AR CA Percent of popular vote in state AL42%56%41%18%37% AK25%75%22%44%15% AZ50%43%9%35%47% AR70%26%61%14%20% CA52%43%12%35%42%

How does a candidate win the nomination? Ultimately, by convincing primary voters/party activists –That s/he is a good representative of the party –That s/he can win the general election Convince them through: –Campaigns (which cost money) –Party elite endorsements –Favorable media coverage ($$ again) (be the frontrunner!) Responding to the rules better than opponents –Obama’s delegate strategy/Giuliani’s Florida strategy –Advantages of “winning” the “invisible primary” (especially in a frontloaded system!)

Date Jan wk1 IA, WY Jan wk2 NH, Jan wk3 MI, NV Jan wk4 SC, FLAK, HI Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT LA Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI IA Feb wk3 NH Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VTCA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Effects of the primary calendar No primaries –Effects on candidate behavior –Effects on general election chances –Importance of activists/elites Late, spread out primaries –Effects on candidate behavior –Effects on general election chances –Importance of activists/elites Frontloaded primaries –Effects on candidate behavior –Effects on general election chances –Importance of activists/elites

What role do party activists, elites, and rank and file voters play in this presidential nomination process?