Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 Water and Growth: Future Supplies for Central Arizona Global Institute for Sustainability Arizona State University Water Resources Research Center 2006 Annual Conference June 20-21, 2006 Terri Sue Rossi Central Arizona Project

Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 Objective Present highlights of GIOS paper Lay a foundation for issues discussion

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 1900 to 2000; Arizona Department of Economic Security 2010 to 2050 (April 2006 Projections); Global Institute of Sustainability 2060 to 2100 (June 2006) Population Estimates and Projections 1900 to = 344,000 people 2000 = 5.1 million people statewide 4.1 million in CAP Service Area 2100 = 18.1 million people statewide 15.2 million in CAP Service Area

Figure 4a. Demand by sector for Phoenix, Pinal and Tucson AMAs in 1998 SOURCE: Governor’s Water Management Commission 3.6 million acre-feet of total demand

Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 Supply Sources Colorado River water (on-River, CAP) Intra-state surface water (SRP, Agua Fria, Gila, Planet Ranch, others) Groundwater (grandfathered, allowable) Reclaimed water Seawater Other…

Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand Currently secured supplies

Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand Likely available supplies

Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand Possibly available supplies

Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand Uncertain supplies

Figure 6. Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand 2030 = 2.0 million acre-feet 8.5 million people 2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people 2075 = 3.1 million acre-feet 12.9 million people 2100 = 3.6 million acre-feet 15.2 million people

Workshop on Future Water Supplies in Arizona June 21, 2006 Objective Identify key public policy issues and water management decisions to address for future Make recommendations for how to approach these issues

Un- quantified Indian rights Uncontrolled river Insufficient storage Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights No infrastructure to transport water 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Questions about whether Arizona had a right to water originating on federal land No one under contract for CAP water Uncertainty about growth Litigation with California 11:1 ratio in Congress No institutions to develop and manage water resources 3,000 feet of ascent Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water would be included in Arizona’s entitlement

Exterior wall of a water professional’s brain

Un- quantified Indian rights Uncontrolled river Insufficient storage Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights No infrastructure to transport water 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Questions about whether Arizona had a right to water originating on federal land No one under contract for CAP water Uncertainty about growth Litigation with California 11:1 ratio in Congress No institutions to develop and manage water resources 3,000 feet of ascent Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water would be included in Arizona’s entitlement Cerebellum = coordinates our balance and movement Cross-section of the left side of a water professional’s brain

Un- quantified Indian rights Uncontrolled river Insufficient storage Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights No infrastructure to transport water 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Questions about whether Arizona had a right to water originating on federal land No one under contract for CAP water Uncertainty about growth Litigation with California 11:1 ratio in Congress No institutions to develop and manage water resources 3,000 feet of ascent Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water would be included in Arizona’s entitlement ROOT PROBLEM: Cerebellum is wrapped around an axle!

Un- quantified Indian rights Uncontrolled river Insufficient storage Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights No infrastructure to transport water 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Questions about whether Arizona had a right to water originating on federal land No one under contract for CAP water Uncertainty about growth Litigation with California 11:1 ratio in Congress No institutions to develop and manage water resources 3,000 feet of ascent Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water would be included in Arizona’s entitlement Issues that “pre-water buffalo” water professionals wrestled with between 1900 and Road blocks created by California

Un- quantified Indian rights Uncontrolled river Insufficient storage Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights No infrastructure to transport water 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Questions about whether Arizona had a right to water originating on federal land No one under contract for CAP water Uncertainty about growth Litigation with California 11:1 ratio in Congress No institutions to develop and manage water resources 3,000 feet of ascent Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Gila river water would be included in Arizona’s entitlement STAY GO Developed over 60 million acre-feet of storage capacity Built CAP Created institutions Built water treatment plants Grew from nothing to millions Built SRP In 1900, we were somewhere!

SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau 1900 to 2000; Arizona Department of Economic Security 2010 to 2050 (April 2006 Projections); Global Institute of Sustainability 2060 to 2100 (June 2006) Population Estimates and Projections 1900 to 2100 Maxwell proclaimed a “mad man” CAP considered substantially complete. The next big thing! Significant improvements to CAP and test the water transfer theory 70 years 40 years 70 years

Indian water rights settlements Environmental issues Insufficient recharge capacity Lack of sufficient power resources Ongoing litigation over water rights Water not stored where it can be recovered 1.5 million acre-foot liability to Mexico Uncertainty about growth Litigation with Upper Basin Nearly 7:1 ratio in Congress Climate change Canal’s not big enough Competition for water supplies Uncooperative rules Fear Uncertainty about whether Indians will do more leases CAGRD Today, we are here! STAY GO Aging system What is the source of the obstacle? What will it take for you to move forward even though these obstacles exist? How can we replicate the success of the past? How can we create a future together? What would Carl Hayden do?