Ecosystem composition and CO 2 flux variability Corinne Le Quéré Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie, Jena, Germany now at University of East Anglia/British Antarctic Survey with : Erik T. Buitenhuis and Olivier Aumont
Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
% 54% 15% (42%) 31% Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
Sabine et al., 2004 Anthropogenic C 60S60N depth (m) 0 55 umol/kg DOWN
Sabine et al., 2004; Key et al., 2004; CDIAC Total C Anthropogenic C UP DOWN 60S60N depth (m) 60S60N umol/kg
Sabine et al., 2004; Key et al., 2004; CDIAC Total C Anthropogenic C UP DOWN 60S60N depth (m) 60S60N umol/kg
oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity physical transport CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO HCO - 3 chemical reactions 90
(slide from J. Sarmiento)
winter mixed layer depth biological export production UP DOWN Schlitzer 2001; World Ocean Atlas 2001
Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity physical transport CO 2 + H 2 O + CO HCO - 3 chemical reactions UP DOWN
pico nano micro nano/micro meso macro Photosynth. Bacteria, N2-fixers Calcifiers, DMS-producers, autothr. dinoflagellates diatoms Ciliates, heterotr. flagellates Copepods, euphausids Salps, pteropods bacteria phyto- plankton zoo- plankton ecosystem composition
bacteria phyto- plankton zoo- plankton Export 11 PgC/y Respiration 34 PgC/y Primary Production 45 PgC/y
NPZD model Phyto PO 4 DOCZoo POC export CO 2 flux
Geider et al., 1997
Aumont et al., 2003 PISCES model (NNNPPZZDDD) CO 2 flux big
can we constrain complex ecosystem models?
yes
Ocean Physical Model: OPA General Circulation model (Madec et al. 2001) NCEP daily forcing o x2 o resolution 10 vertical levels in top 100 m (30 total) Thermodynamic Sea Ice model (Louvain La Neuve, Fichefet et al.) Nutrients restored under the Mixed layer (50<mld<100)
Buitenhuis et al., in prep.; Hirst and Kiorboe 2002; Ikeda 2001; Hirst and Bunker 2003 chl T growth T T mortality growth respiration Meso zooplankton rates (d -1 ) PISCES-T model
can we evaluate complex ecosystem models?
yes
PISCES PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) Surface chla (mgChl/m 3 )
PISCES PISCES-T from observations (Schlitzer 2001) export of C (mol/m 2 /y)
PISCES PISCES-T Observations (WOA, FSU, CPR) Meso-zooplankton (uM)
PISCES Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) 0.1
PISCES Interannual chla variability (percent) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
what do complex ecosystem models bring?
freedom
NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) Calcifiers PO 4 Fe PO 4 DOCZoo POC export
Buitenhuis et al., in prep. Dynamic Green Ocean Model (NNNPPPZZDDD) CO 2 flux Calcifiers PO 4 Fe big
NPZD DGOM Surface chla (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
NPZD DGOM Interannual chla variability (percent) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS)
NPZD DGOM Surface chla (mgChl/m3) PISCES-T Observations (SeaWiFS) mean Interannual standard deviation
Log (meso-zoo/chl) Log (chl) NPZD PISCES-T Observations DGOM
can complex ecosystem models help our understanding?
can complex ecosystem models bring new information?
does it matter for CO 2 fluxes?
CO 2 sink (PgC/y) Export (PgC/y)
oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity physical transport CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO HCO - 3 chemical reactions 90
oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity physical transport CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO HCO - 3 chemical reactions 901.8
oceanic carbon cycle Silicifi ers N 2 fixers DMS producer s Calcifiers Nano phytoplankt on Fe NO 3 SiSi CaCO 3 DM S PO4PO4 NH 4 DOM biological activity physical transport CO 2 CO 2 + H 2 O + CO HCO - 3 chemical reactions – 0.8
% 54% 15% (42%) 31% Fossil fuel emissions Atmospheric increase Land sink Ocean sink CO 2 budget (PgC/y)
conclusions simple ecosystem models are too tightly linked to ocean physics but easy to use complex ecosystem models are difficult to parameterize but add degrees of freedom both are needed
related posters Thursday: Leticia Cotrim da Cunha, Impact of river sources of P, Si and Fe on coastal biogeochemistry Friday: Manfredi Manizza, Bio-optical impact of phytoplankton on ocean physics and air-sea fluxes
Standard deviation in winter MLD Observations (WOA 2001) OPA model
PISCES PISCES-T observations (WOA, FSU, CPR) Log (meso-zoo/chl) Log (chl)
240, 1185, total C latitude 60S60N depth (m) umol/kg 500 winter mixed layer depth
CO 2 variability (Pg C/y) MIT model Hamburg model OPA model (Peylin, Bousquet, Le Quéré et al., submitted)
northern sub-tropics (Peylin, Bousquet, Le Quéré et al., submitted) CO 2 variability (mol/m 2 /y) MIT model OPA model observations