Probability Probability involves the measurement of the uncertainty that the decision maker feels about the occurrence of some outcome.

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Presentation transcript:

Probability Probability involves the measurement of the uncertainty that the decision maker feels about the occurrence of some outcome.

Experiment An experiment is the process by which an observation (measurement) is noted l Interviewing a buyer to determine brand preference for a particular product l Tossing a die and observing the number appearing on the upper face

Events Each experiment may result in one or more outcomes (events). The individual outcomes are called basic outcomes (e). A collection of two or more basic outcomes is called a Compound event (E).

Example Toss a die and observe the number appearing on the upper face Basic Outcome Result e11e11 e22e22 e33e33 e44e44 e55e55 e66e66

Sample Space (S) The Sample Space of an experiment is the collection of all the possible basic outcomes for the experiment. S = ( e 1, e 2, e 3, e 4, e 5, e 6 )

Event Operators An event operator is a symbol that indicates a rule for assigning some basic outcomes to a compound event l the complement operator ( ) l the union operator (  ); and l the intersection operator (  )