The Internet in Developing Nations: A Grand Challenge Larry Press Professor, IS CSU Dominguez Hills

A grand challenge: connecting the world’s rural villages Larry Press Professor, IS CSU Dominguez Hills

Measuring and Reducing the Digital Divide: a Grand Challenge Larry Press Professor, IS California State University, Dominguez Hills

Background

We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops

Outline Background Village applications and business models Backbone architecture and feasibility Project policies (lessons learned from NSFNet) Conclusion – G8

Outline A decade of activity Where are we? A grand challenge: connect all villages The NSFNet strategy Cabled and wireless technologies Why Bangladesh?

Outline A decade of activity The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS

Outline A decade of measurement activity Time for action – a grand challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation. 3 billion people 3 million villages

A Grand Challenge Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation. 3 billion people 3 million villages

Grand challenges I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth. John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969

Grand Challenges I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to Earth. John F. Kennedy, 1961 That's one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind. Neil Armstrong, 1969

A Grand Challenge Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation. 3 billion people 3 million villages

A Grand Challenge Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation. 3 billion people 3 million villages

A grand challenge Connecting the approximately 3 billion people residing in 3 million villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge Connecting the approximately three billion people residing in three million rural villages of the developing nations within ten years.

A grand challenge Build IP backbones providing high- speed connectivity to and a point of presence in every rural village in every developing nation within ten years. (There are roughly 3 million villages and 3 billion people in low and lower income nations).

Possible ICT Grand Challenges Provide high-speed IP connectivity to all villages Provide access to all engineering and scientific literature and data sets at all universities

A proposal The G8 just pledged to increase African aid by $25 billion per year. A portion of that increase should be used for a high-speed Internet backbone to and a point of presence in every African village. There are 3 billion people in 3 million villages in developing nations

1990s hypothesis Computer networks can improve the quality of life in developing nations at a relatively low cost Marginal impact increased by a lack of alternative ICT and transportation Raising the quality of rural life will reduce pressure for urban migration

1990s Hypothesis Computer networks could improve life in developing nations at a relatively low cost Marginal impact could be relatively great due to a lack of alternative ICT Raising the quality of rural life will reduce migration pressure

This motivated 15 years work ICT measurement and readiness studies Pilot applications and business models Training Conferences and workshops

Background

Over a decade of activity

We have done Training Pilot studies ICT readiness assessments Conferences and workshops

Over a decade of activity Early hypothesis Experience with applications supporting those hypothesis

E-readiness assessments 10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies 8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5 times 10 nations have been assessed at least 10 times

DOI vs. average of other indices

Successful Applications Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment

Where are we? Many applications have been demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available

Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment

IP Connectivity, 2003 IncomePopulationSubscribersPer 100 Low2,4135, Lower middle 2,39369, Upper middle 33112, High961216, World6,097303,

Internet subscribers, 2003 IncomePopulationSubscribersPer 100 Low2,4135, Lower middle 2,39369, Upper middle 33112, High961216, World6,097303,

Cannot attract private capital Cost of 20 hours access as percent of average monthly GNI per capita Low income nations246.4 Lower middle income24.9 Upper middle income8.6 High income1.6

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet (risks too)

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet (risks too)

Mosaic dimensions

After years work We have evidence that the hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development Time for action

We have done ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops

E-readiness assessments 10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies 8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5 times 10 nations have been assessed at least 10 times

“State of” Annuals

How to proceed? The NSF approach Architecture and feasibility Village models and applications Action plan – WSIS

After years work We have evidence that the hypothesis is true The digital divide persists Capital is not available The Internet is on the “radar screen” – all governments recognize the communication-development link

Connectivity, 1991

Internet diffusion, 9/1991

Internet diffusion, 6/1997

Generic Digital Divide

The “digital divide” persists

We have done ICT readiness assessments Pilot studies Training Conferences and workshops

Where are we? Many applications have been demonstrated. The Internet is on the “radar screen” But the digital divide persists Capital is not available

Where are we? The digital divide persists Capital is not available Many applications have been demonstrated The Internet is on the “radar screen”

An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented and news primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities The US in 1989

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also well aware of the role of communication in development Time for action

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance of the Internet (risks too)

On the “radar screen” Every government is aware of the strategic importance (and risks) of the Internet Multilateral institutions – G8, World Bank, ITU, UNDP, etc are also

On the G8 “radar screen” Established Digital Opportunity Task Force at the 2000 Summit Japan pledged $15 billion

On the “radar screen:” WSIS Connect villages with ICTs and establish community access points by 2015 Nine other targets related to ICT

On the “radar screen:” UN Millennium Development Goal In cooperation with the private sector make available the benefits of new technologies, specifically information and communications.

Successful Applications Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and human rights E-government News and entertainment

Village models and applications

Three successful approaches in the village Corporate owner, single application “Franchise” centers State owned

Many successful pilots

Sustainable approaches to village Internet centers Corporate owner, single application “Franchise” centers State owned

N-Logue rural Kiosk Remote medicine Remote veterinary Remote agricultural advice E-government digital photography desktop publishing Telephony Break even at $75/mo.

YCC mobile unit

Cuban Youth Computer Clubs 350 YCCs Geographically dispersed Education Games News

YCC mobile unit

E-choupal home page

E-choupal services Login Weather Crop best practices Market related information Agricultural queries Suggestion box Farmer profile Government schemes News

E-Chaupal ITC, an Indian conglomerate (agribusiness, infotech, hotels, etc.) Remote centers at agricultural hub locations Savings in logistics and middlemen Payback time 8 months to 2 years Using VSAT and a single application

Early successes, still operating Education Health care E-commerce Democracy and Human Rights E-government Entertainment

Education Youth Computer Clubs, Cuba Enlaces Network, Chile

Health care Healthnet Satellife Healthnet in Nepal

E-commerce Soviet Union: Relcom (96/391 commercial accounts, 9/91) Information Village research project Software export from developing nations

E-government

Democracy and Human Rights From Relcom during the 1991 Soviet Coup attempt: “They try to close all mass media. They stopped CNN an hour ago, and Soviet TV transmits opera and old movies.” “Yes, we already prepared to shift to underground; you know -- reserve nodes, backup channel, hidden locations. They'll have a hard time catching us!”

Entertainment and connection to the outside world

Many quips: quick-impact projects International Development Research Centre Information for Development Program, Infodev Development Gateway Sustainable Development Networking Program

NSFNet approach and strategy

Project policies – lessons learned from NSFNet

An unconnected nation No national backbone network No residential connectivity No commercial application Character-oriented and news primary applications Connectivity only in a few universities The US in 1989

The NSFNet Approach Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation. NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States.

The NSFNet Approach NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States. Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

The NSFNet Strategy Build backbone Fund connectivity (POP, router and link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks Users in control

The NSFNet Approach NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States. Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

The NSFNet Strategy Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Expert designers on temporary assignment Users in control – IP protocol implies decentralized funding and innovation

The NSFNet Strategy Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSF $125 million Users in control – IP protocol implies design Expert designers on temporary assignment

NSFNet – seeding the Internet Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks First IP backbone – seeded the Internet

NSFNet T1 Backbone, 1991

The NSFNet Approach NSFNet challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every university in the United States. Developing nations challenge: Provide a high-speed Internet link and a point of presence in every village in every low and lower-middle income nation.

NSFNet – seeding the Internet Build backbone connecting key sites Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks First IP backbone – seeded the Internet

The NSFNet Strategy Highly leveraged – ARPA and NSFnet $125 million total cost Users in control – IP protocol implies decentralized funding and innovation R&D project – expert designers on temporary assignment, not government staff

Highly leveraged: Government funding ($million) ProjectCost Morse telegraph.03 ARPANet25 CSNet5 NSFNet backbone57.9 NSF higher ed connections30 NSF international connections6

User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications – innovation at the edges of the network A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.

NSFNet with regional links

NSFNet Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks

Highly leveraged: Government funding ($million) ProjectCost Morse telegraph.03 ARPANet25 CSNet5 NSFNet backbone57.9 NSF higher ed connections30 NSF international connections6

User control Universities designed their LANs Universities funded their LANs Universities trained their users Users invented applications – innovation at the edges of the network A “dumb,” end-to-end network – IP is a design philosophy as well as a protocol.

Areas of expertise for GRNet Geographic Information Systems Local Geography Terrestrial wireless design and practice Fiber optic design and installation Network operation center design Network modeling and optimization Satellite research and practice High altitude platform research and practice Village POP configuration design Training for POP operation Design of solar and other power systems Spectrum politics and policy Mechanical design for radio towers Village telecommunication centers and applications

Expert designers on temporary assignment UCLA MIT SRI BBN NSF Michigan Etc.

NSFNet Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks

NSFNet Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks

Technologies Cabled Wireless today Wireless to consider

Backbone architecture and feasibility

Architecture and feasibility

Fiber Backbone, Mesh, POPs

Fiber where possible – follow the roads

Use cable links where possible

Use fiber wherever possible

Wireless technology Today VSAT Various terrestrial technologies Soon WiMAX Worth investigating High altitude platforms LEO constellations GIS-based radiation modeling

VSAT

High-Altitude Platform

Sanswire HAP

245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months

Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy five platforms in Colombia

FiberAfrica 70,000 Km fiber core 30,000 Km fiber spurs Wireless to fiber Reach 400 million Walking/bicycling distance 1 billion dollars Daunting, but with precedents

Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: US Interstate Highway system: Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium:.581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new)

Wireless technology Today VSAT Proprietary terrestrial technologies Soon WiMAX – may unify terrestrial wireless Worth watching High altitude platforms Constellations of LEO satellites

LEO constellation

Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: US Interstate Highway system: Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium:.581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year G8 African pledge: 25 per year (new funds)

WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) ? Global regulatory conformity ? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi ? “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular ? “Competition” from new license-free bands

WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular “Competition” from new license-free bands

Sanswire HAP

245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months

Sanswire progress May 2005: floating tests July 2005: joint venture to deploy five platforms in Colombia

Radiation modeling with GIS

Wireless supplements VSAT Terrestrial wireless Worth investigating LEO constellations High altitude platforms GIS-based radiation modeling

WiMAX – Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access Three architectures Point to point Point to multipoint P to P or P to MP plus mesh

WIMAX Promises Non line of site Up to 50 kilometers Up to 70 mbps mobile applications Unique MAC, modulation, etc?

WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular “Competition” from new license-free bands

WiMAX may unify wide-area terrestrial wireless License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) ? Global regulatory conformity ? “Competition” from next generation Wi-Fi ? “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular ? “Competition” from new license-free bands

WiFi and WiMAX are version 1 Moore’s Law Smart radios and antennae FCC has noticed WiFi success NPRM, license-free 3,650-3,700 MHz 25 Watt EIRP NOI, license-free “White space” TV channels Lower frequency FCC Wireless Broadband Access Task Force

WiMAX Market Development BWCS Limited

Wireless technologies to investigate LEO constellations High-altitude platforms Radiation modeling with GIS

Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points

Great need Pent up demand: cable landing, poor telephone infrastructure (300k users) Poor people – great marginal impact

Positive points Densely populated – reach with fiber Railroad right of way Power Grid Company Positive experience with micro-credit Government will

2002 Population Density/km 2 Bangladesh925 India329 Sri Lanka289 Pakistan182 Nepal164 China134 Myanmar72 Bhutan15

Grameen Bank Microcredit

Grameen Phone, since million people in 30,000 villages $300 million with $44m after tax profit $2 daily profit is over twice BD average

WEF Global Competitiveness, Network readiness index 92/102 National savings rate 34/102 Access to credit 46/102 Inflation 37/102 Local equity market access 35/95 Intensity of local competition 52/95 Government prioritization of ICT 43/102

Workshop goal Bangladesh backbone POP in every “village” “High speed” Use the NSF approach Detailed, funded proposal by WSIS

Pondicherry Information Links

E-readiness assessments 10 statistical/questionnaire methodologies 8 case study methodologies 137 nations have been assessed at least once 55 nations have been assessed at least 5 times 10 nations have been assessed at least 10 times

Sanswire HAP 245 x 145 x 87 feet Proprietary lifting gas technology Outer envelope covered in film solar panels Solar powered electric motors Held in position using 6 onboard GPS units Desired altitude: 65,000 feet Line-of-sight to a 300,000 square mile area Controlled by earth stations on the ground Flight time: 18 months

Cost context, $billion Manhattan project: US Interstate Highway system: Apollo program: 25.4 GPS: 8.3 through 1995, 21.8 to complete Baseball stadium:.581 B2 bomber: 2.2 US pet food: 10 per year

Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network using a team of experts Apply lessons learned to other nations

Which pilot nation? Strong government support of telecommunication Open, competitive telecommunication market Open, competitive business practices and laws High level of poverty High level of literacy Dense population High-speed international fiber links Strong university programs in EE, CS, and GIS Varied climate and topography

Bangladesh? + Densely populated – reach with fiber + Very poor + Undersea cable coming + Extreme climate + Positive experience with micro-credit - Government will not clear - Low literacy rate - Weak universities

WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular “Competition” from new license-free bands

Why Bangladesh? Need is great Some positive points

Great need Pent up demand: cable landing, poor telephone infrastructure (300k users) Poor people – great marginal impact

The NSFNet Strategy Build backbone Fund connectivity and POP (router and a link) Connect US higher education networks International research and education networks Highly leveraged -- $125 million Users in control Use expert designers

Which pilot nation? Strong government support of telecommunication Open, competitive telecommunication market Open, competitive business practices and laws High level of poverty High level of literacy Dense population High-speed international fiber links Strong university programs in EE, CS, and GIS Varied climate and topography

Steps Begin with a pilot nation Design and implement the network using a team of experts

WiMAX issues License free market innovation Mass production (carrier and user) Global regulatory conformity “Competition” from “Competition” from 3 rd generation cellular “Competition” from new license-free bands

Conclusion

Okinawa G8 summit, July 2000 Focused on information and communication technology Billions of dollars were pledged (Japan alone promised $15 billion) Digital Opportunity Task Force was formed "to identify ways in which the digital revolution can benefit all the world's people, especially the poorest and most marginalized groups."

A few reports and no action

We have many of the needed skills -- what is the role/responsibility of AIS in developing nations?

Action plan Network design for a pilot nation Deploy in the network in a pilot Planning for implementation in other nations. Implementation in those nations.

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