11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International.

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Presentation transcript:

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 1 Complexity of inverse and direct cascading of earthquakes Vladimir Kossobokov International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 79-2 Warshavskoye Shosse, Moscow , Russian Federation Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, Cedex 05, France or

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 2 Outline Uniform presentation of seismic dynamics prior to and after all the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8.0 or larger, What is in common and different? Witness to “transient phase changes” in system of blocks-and-faults?

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 3 19/09/1985 Mexico Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 4 20/10/1986 Kermadek Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 5 23/05/1989 Macquarie Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 6 08/08/1993 Guam Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 7 09/06/1994 Bolivia Deep Earthquake The Great Deep Bolivia earthquake did occur after the January 10, 1994, magnitude 6.9, depth 595 km earthquake at distance of about 250 km. The previous earthquake that deep happened here in 1963.

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 8 04/10/1994 Shikotan Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 9 07/04/1995 Samoa Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 10 03/12/1995 Iturup Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 11 17/02/1996 New Guinea Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 12 25/03/1998 Balleny Sea Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 13 04/06/2000 South Sumatera Earthquake

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 14 Cascading of earthquakes … detectable by reproducible earthquake prediction methods Case histories of the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above prove it and evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to the main shock.

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 15 Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more. The significance level estimates use the most conservative measure of the alarm volume accounting for empirical distribution of epicenters. Test period Large earthquakes Total Predicted by M8 M8-MSc Percentage of alarms M8 M8-MSc Significance, % M8 M8-MSc

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 16 Cascading of earthquakes Apparently more complicated than so far suggested power-laws…

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 17 Benioff strain release in 20 years before the great shocks

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 18 Benioff strain release in 20 years before great shocks ( Log-scale )

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 19 Aftershock sequences of the great shocks

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 20 Activity in 10 years before + 3 years after the great shocks

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 21 Aftershock sequences of the great shocks (summary) DateNumber 100 days Number 3 years Aftershocks decay 100 d Aftershocks decay 3 y Relaxation time, years 1985/09/ /10/ /05/ /08/ /06/ /10/ /04/ /12/ /02/ /03/ /06/ * 278* Omori Law Modified OL 3 Omori Law Modified OL 2 Omori Law Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 - Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 Modified OL 3 Modified OL 2 * 284 days 100 days, = years, >3 65 days, > years, > days, >2 1 year 2 years, > days *

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 22 Conclusions Earthquakes evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to main shock and direct cascading of aftershocks. The first may reflect coalescence of instabilities at the approach, while the second may indicate readjustment of a complex system of blocks-and-faults in a new state after a catastrophe. The cascades observed in seismic dynamics are by far more diverse than a power-law family.

11/10/2001 The IMA Workshop "Complexity in Geophysical Systems" 23 Global Hypocenters Data Base CD ‑ ROM, version III, NEIC/USGS, Denver, CO. and its PDE and QED updates) Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61:73-83, 1990 Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, Romashkova, and Healy. Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter., 111, 3-4: , Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, and Smith. J. Geophys. Res., 95: , Romashkova and Kossobokov, Comput. Seismol., 32: , This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538.