1. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 1 Rise of activity, i.e. inverse cascading, at the approach of an extreme event Vladimir Kossobokov International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, 79-2 Warshavskoye Shosse, Moscow 113556, Russian Federation Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris, 4 Place Jussieu, 75252 Paris, Cedex 05, France E-mail: volodya@mitp.ru or volodya@ipgp.jussieu.fr

2. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 2 Outline Universality of multiple fracturing and cascading activity Example: The longest sequence of “starquakes” on Soft Gamma Repeater, SGR1806-20 Cascading of earthquakes by far more diverse than a power-law family yet it implies… … Earthquake Prediction What stands behind?

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4. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 4 Seismic background A 5000-km segment of the area where the standard versions of M8 and MSc algorithms were setup for real-time monitoring.

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22. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 22 2000/01 The M8-MSc prediction pinpoints the epicenter and aftershocks of the 4 June 2000, Ms8.0 Southern Sumatera earthquake.

23. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 23 SGR1806-20 sequence Soft-Gamma-Repeater 1806-20 is the source in Sagittarius, from which more than a hundred X-ray pulsations have been detected. Its location on the sky (1806-20 refer to celestial coordinates: 18 hours 06 minutes right ascension, -20 degrees declination) is near the Galactic center, which is 25,000 light years away. The energy of one burst varies from 1.4·10 40 erg to 5.3·10 41 erg (the largest earthquakes release about 10 26 erg).

24. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 24 Common general features A fundamental property of multiple fracturing is the power-law distribution of energy log 10 N(E) = a + b·log 10 E (Gutenberg-Richter relation)

25. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 25 Symptoms of transition to the main rupture Escalation of fracturing lasting nearly 1000 days and culminated with the largest starquake on November 16 The power-law increase of activity, e.g. Benioff strain release  (t), with a possible trace of the four log-periodic oscillations.

26. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 26 Seismic premonitory patterns Pattern   E 2/3 Keilis-Borok & Malinovskaya, 1964 Pattern B Keilis-Borok, Knopoff & Rotwain, 1980 M8 algorithm Keilis-Borok & Kossobokov, 1990

27. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 27 Similarity of starquakes and earthquakes Qualitative so far Gutenberg-Richter relation Premonitory changes Decay of “aftershocks” – Omori power-law Starquakes evidence drastic expansion of the Realm of Multiple Fracturing previously observed from the lithosphere of the Earth to laboratory samples Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok & Cheng, 2000

28. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 28 How to explain such similarity? The simplest answer is – Multiple fracturing reflects scenarios of critical transition, common for a broader class of non-linear systems Turcotte, 1995. Fractals and Chaos in Geophysics. Newman, Gabrielov, & Turcotte, editors. 1994. Nonlinear Dynamics and Predictability of Geophysical Phenomena.

29. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 29 Cascading of earthquakes Apparently more complicated than so far suggested power-laws…

30. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 30 Bowman, Ouillon, Sammis, Sornette, & Sornette, 1998 It is still unclear if “the best fit” is random… ? Free parameters: dT, Mc, aftershocks

31. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 31 Zoller, Hainzl & Kurths, 2001 Does “the best fit” fit data points ?

32. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 32 Does “the best fit” fit data points ? Romashkova & Kossobokov, 2001

33. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 33 Cascading of earthquakes … detectable by reproducible earthquake prediction methods Case histories of the recent earthquakes of magnitude 8 or above prove it and evidence consecutive stages of inverse cascading of seismic activity to the main shock.

34. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 34 Worldwide performance of earthquake prediction algorithms M8 and M8-MSc: Magnitude 8.0 or more. The significance level estimates use the most conservative measure of the alarm volume accounting for empirical distribution of epicenters. Test period Large earthquakes Total Predicted by M8 M8-MSc Percentage of alarms M8 M8-MSc Significance, % M8 M8-MSc 1985-2001 1992-2001 9 8 7 7 6 5 34.9 18.0 30.2 15.3 99. 86 99. 98 99. 61 99. 87

35. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 35 How earthquake prediction methods work? “Predicting earthquakes is as easy as one-two-three. Step 1: Deploy your precursor detection instruments at the site of the coming earthquake. Step 2: Detect and recognize the precursors. Step 3: Get all your colleagues to agree and then publicly predict the earthquake through approved channels.” Scholz, C.H., 1997. Whatever happened to earthquake prediction. Geotimes, 42 (3), 16-19 Routine seismological data bases, e.g. US GS/NEIC Reproducible intermediate-term algorithms, e.g. M8 Number of earthquakes have been predicted

36. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 36 What stands behind? … Of course, the correct answer is very uncertain Geophysics is lacking continuous data over extended areas and times. Hopefully, their collection has started.

37. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 37 One example from ENE off Tibet An ULF electromagnetic signal around 21 July 1995, M5.7, Yong Deng (China) earthquake

38. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 38 Schematic representation of the electromagnetic station at Song Shan Two independent, 110 and 250 m long, lines

39. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 39 Frequency-Time diagrams for the NS 250 m line

40. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 40 Signal evolution Both Intensity and Period GROW

41. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 41 The signal start and collapse The Yong Deng earthquake has occurred in a near vicinity of electromagnetic observations at the time when the characteristic ULF and/or its exponential show decrease, on the component pointing at epicenter. The start of the ULF decrease was accompanied with a seismic activation of associate segment of Haiyuan fault system. The collapse of the characteristic ULF happened before the Yong Deng aftershocks vanished exponentially.

42. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 42 Conclusion … an obvious one - More seismological and other data should be analyzed systematically to establish reliable correlations between the occurrence of extreme earthquakes and observable geophysical phenomena

43. 05/10/2001 The IMA Special Event: Vladimir Keilis-Borok 80th Birthday Festschrift 43 This presentation was supported from the ISTC grant #1538. Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 98, 9,871-9,883, 1993 Global Hypocenters Data Base CD ‑ ROM, version III, 1994. NEIC/USGS, Denver, CO. and its PDE and QED updates) Healy, Kossobokov, and Dewey, U. S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401, 1992. Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter. 61:73-83, 1990 Keylis-Borok and Malinovskaya. J. Geophys. Res. 69: 3019-3024, 1964. Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok and Cheng, 2000. Phys. Rev. E, 61: 3529-3533 Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, Romashkova, and Healy. Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter., 111, 3-4: 187-196, 1999. Kossobokov, Keilis-Borok, and Smith. J. Geophys. Res., 95: 19763-19772, 1990. Romashkova and Kossobokov, Comput. Seismol., 32: 162-189, 2001. Sadovsky (Ed.). Long-Term Earthquake Prediction: Methodological Recommendations, Moscow: Inst. Phys. Earth, 127 p. (in Russian), 1986. Varnes, Pure Appl. Geophys. 130, 661–686, 1989 Zlotnicki, Kossobokov and Le Mouël, 2001. Tectonophysics, 334, 3-4: 259-270