IMPACT EVALUATION WORKSHOP ISTANBUL, TURKEY MAY 11-14

Trade & Competitiveness Impact Evaluations History, Lessons, Expectations Christine Zhenwei Qiang Practice Manager, Investment Climate Istanbul, May 11, 2015

Impact Workshops and Focus Areas 3 Dakar 2010 FPD AFR & DIME Rio 2011 FPD Global & DIME Paris 2012 Inv climate & DIME Istanbul 2015 T&C & DIME Projects Focus Matching grants Financial literacy Business registration Financial literacy Business training Firms’ incentives Business climate Tax reform Business registration Agribusiness Trade facilitation Skills Access to capital Incentives Institutions

Portfolio of Existing Impact Evaluations 39 T&C-related IEs, mostly: in Africa ongoing or in design phase on entrepreneurship & Inv Climate Source: Manual stocktaking, Jan 2015

Paris Portfolio by Methodology 5 EvaluationMethodology 1. Georgia - Tax Simplification for SMEs on Registration and Compliance Regression discontinuity (RDD) 2. SEE trade in Albania, Serbia, Macedonia- Risk Mgmt on Trade Delays and Flows High-frequency panel 3. Rwanda - Tea Sector Pricing Reform on Productivity Difference in differences 4. Moldova, Bosnia & Herzegovina* - Food Safety on Productivity Difference in differences 5. Malawi - Costless Registration and Access to Fin. on Productivity Randomized control trial (RCT) 6. Benin - Entreprenant Status on Formalization and Firm Performance RCT 7. Kenya - Inspections on Patient Safety and Quality of Care RCT 8. Tajikistan - Tax E-filing on Costs, Corruption, and Firm Behavior RCT 9. Bangladesh* – ADR centers on firm perception and performance RCT 10. Nepal* - Registration Data on Business Linkages RCT 11. Romania* - Out of Courts Workouts on Firm Insolvency RCT 12. Kosovo* - Incentives for investment on productivity and export RCT/RDD * discontinued

Broad Observations and Lessons 1.A programmatic approach linking IEs to literature review and measurement indicators 2.IEs are not for every project, they require significant resources and efforts 3.Need a high level of client commitment to both reforms and IEs 4.Many IEs do not continue due to: – Design feasibility (limitations in isolating impact caused by intervention) – Uptake of intervention (Bangladesh, Nepal ) – Data quality – Poor implementation or monitoring (Kosovo) 6

Influential Examples – Benin and Malawi 7 Regulatory simplification/ free registration Package A Package C Provision of tax filing and payment advice + tax return certification Provision of tax mediation services Package D Package A Formalization Firm revenue, profits, employment Package D Benin Malawi Impact Output Input Access to markets, lending, savings Package A Bank services Provision of business advisory services/trainings Package A Provision of Tax ID number Package B Package C Package B Package C Outcome

Influential Examples – Kenya 8 Key Elements Pilot 1: Business as usual (control) Pilot 2: Government-led accountability Pilot 3: Demand-side accountability Regulation: improved regulatory framework with new checklist, clear warning and sanctions, and dissemination campaign to health facilities Capacity: enhanced capacity to conduct inspections in 100% of facilities with an electronic system and trained local inspectors Demand-side: empower patients to make informed choices of health facilities and generate further incentives for HF to improve by displaying results in a scorecard and conducting a dissemination campaign

Istanbul Workshop 9

New T&C Practice 10

T&C Results Chain 11 Investment Climate Business environment Investment policy & promotion Indicator-based reforms

Ending Extreme Poverty | Boosting Shared Prosperity IMPACTS: Growth | Aggregate Productivity | Jobs | Rising Incomes Topic Framework TopicsExperiment with…Projects InvitedTo achieve… Improving Factors of Production (unconditional) Financing Capital (e.g. equity, access to credit) Senegal, ECA, Georgia, Rwanda, Zambia, Afghanistan. Improved Firm Productivity Increased Investment Improved Trade Performance Enhanced Innovation Business Skills (e.g. BDS to startups or youth entrepreneurs) Mexico (1), Brazil, Kuwait, DR (1), Egypt. Incentivizing Firm Behavior (conditional) Attracting Specific Investments (e.g. fiscal / financial incentives zones) Myanmar. Export Promotion (e.g. matching grants or cash incentives to exporters) Colombia, Tunisia, Nepal Innovation (e.g. through financing incentives) Poland (1), Poland (2) Making Institutions and Regulations More Effective Risk-based Management (e.g. inspections, audits) Ethiopia B2G Feedback Loop (e.g. investment retention mechanisms) Rwanda, DR (2) Competition ReformsMexico (2), Philippines 12

42 World Bank Group project team members 58 country delegates from over 22 different government agencies 37 researchers/facilitators from 12 universities (15), the World Bank (19), and other institutions (3) Representatives from USAID, CDC, DFID, IDB, J-PAL 13 Who Are Here Today?

Workshop Objectives 1.Develop high‐quality design and implementation plans for impact evaluations on key topics relevant to the T&C practice 2.Enhance staff and client technical capacity to design and implement impact evaluations of T&C interventions 3.Strengthen the T&C impact evaluation practice community with donors, practitioners, country representatives, and WBG partners 14