Alan F. Hamlet Eric P. Salathé Matt Stumbaugh Se-Yeun Lee Seshu Vaddey U.S. Army Corps of Engineers JISAO Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Climate Science Programs under the USGCRP: The Chronology and Development of the Climate Science Program in the PNW Climate Science in the Public Interest.

Advertisements

AMS 25th Conference on Hydrology

G.S. Karlovits, J.C. Adam, Washington State University 2010 AGU Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA.

Effects of Climate Change on Natural and Regulated Flood Risks in the Skagit River Basin and Prospects for Adaptation Se-Yeun Lee 1 Alan F. Hamlet 2,1.

Alan F. Hamlet Anthony L. Westerling Tim P. Barnett Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Alan F. Hamlet, Phil Mote, Martyn Clark, Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and.

Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Hydrologic Implications of Climate.

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Amy K. Snover JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental.

Development of GCM Based Climate Scenarios Richard Palmer, Kathleen King, Courtney O’Neill, Austin Polebitski, and Lee Traynham Department of Civil and.

The Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project:

Coming Attractions from the Washington State Climate Impacts Assessment Lara Whitely Binder Alan Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Climate Impacts Group Center.

Pacific Northwest Climate Model Scenarios 2008 Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé Philip.

Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Quantifying the Effects of Climate.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Alan F. Hamlet Se-Yeun Lee Kristian Mickelson Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Alan F. Hamlet JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington July,

Improving Estimates of Hydrologic Extremes: Applications to the Olympic National Forest Ingrid Tohver PNW Climate Science Conference September 14, 2011.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Uncertainty Analysis of Climate Change Effects on Runoff for the Pacific Northwest Greg Karlovits and Jennifer Adam Department of Civil and Environmental.

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results Eric Salathé Climate Impacts Group University of Washington.

Update on the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Kurt Unger CSES Climate Impacts Group Department of.

Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington October 6, 2009 CIG Fall Forecast Meeting Climate science in the public interest.

Alan F. Hamlet Marketa McGuire Elsner Ingrid Tohver Kristian Mickelson JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Seethu Babu Marketa McGuire Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil Engineering University.

Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Alan F. Hamlet Se-Yeun Lee Kristian Mickelson Marketa McGuire Elsner JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

Optimized Flood Control in the Columbia River Basin for a Global Warming Scenario 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group,

Washington State Climate Change Impacts Assessment: Implications of 21 st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington Marketa M Elsner 1 with.

Alan F. Hamlet Philip W. Mote Martyn Clark Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering.

Simulations of Floods and Droughts in the Western U.S. Under Climate Change L. Ruby Leung Pacific Northwest National Laboratory US CLIVAR/NCAR ASP Researcher.

Precipitation Intensity Climate Impacts Group & Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington Eric Salathé.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Nate Mantua, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University.

21 st Century Climate Change Effects on Streamflow in the Puget Sound, WA. Lan Cuo, Eric P. Salathé Jr. and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Nov. 7, 2007 Hydro Group.

Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Effects of Projected Climate Change.

Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington.

Sources of Skill and Error in Long Range Columbia River Streamflow Forecasts: A Comparison of the Role of Hydrologic State Variables and Winter Climate.

Assessing the Influence of Decadal Climate Variability and Climate Change on Snowpacks in the Pacific Northwest JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the.

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Alan F. Hamlet Andy Wood Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate Impacts Group and the Department.

Overview of Downscaling Approach. Hybrid Delta Downscaling Method Performed for each VIC grid cell: Hist. Daily Timeseries Hist. Monthly Timeseries Historic.

Eric Salathé JISAO Climate Impacts Group University of Washington Rick Steed UW Yongxin Zhang CIG, NCAR Cliff Mass UW Regional Climate Modeling and Projected.

Seattle City Light Climate Change Analysis 1Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, UW 2CSES Climate Impacts Group, UW Se-Yeun Lee 1, Alan F. Hamlet 2,1 Overview.

UBC/UW 2011 Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium Friday, September 30, 2011 DIAGNOSIS OF CHANGING COOL SEASON PRECIPITATION STATISTICS IN THE WESTERN.

Alan F. Hamlet JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington A Comprehensive Hydrologic Data Base.

Alan F. Hamlet Ingrid Tohver Se-Yeun Lee JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Quantifying.

Dr. Alan F. Hamlet Skagit Climate Science Consortium Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington Climate.

Estimating Changes in Flood Risk due to 20th Century Warming and Climate Variability in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Climate Variability and Global Climate Change in the Western U.S. Alan F. Hamlet, Philip W. Mote, Dennis P. Lettenmaier.

Late 20th Century Precipitation Variability in the Western U. S

Hydrologic implications of 20th century warming in the western U.S.

Hydrologic Implications of 20th Century Warming in the Western U.S.

Considerations in Using Climate Change Information in Hydrologic Models and Water Resources Assessments JISAO Center for Science in the Earth System Climate.

Mesoscale “Surprises” in Complex Terrain Revealed by Regional Climate Simulations Cliff Mass, Atmospheric Sciences University of Washington.

Se-Yeun Lee1, Alan F. Hamlet 1,2, Carolyn J. Fitzgerald3, Stephen J

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

Climate Change and Stormwater

Recent Climate Change Modeling Results

Trends in Runoff and Soil Moisture in the Western U.S

Hydrologic Forecasting

Hydrologic response of Pacific Northwest Rivers to climate change

Long-Lead Streamflow Forecast for the Columbia River Basin for

Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western U.S. JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group and the Department of Civil.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System

Changing Precipitation Statistics in the West, and Evidence of Frequency of Recurrence from Paleoclimatic Streamflow Reconstructions Alan F. Hamlet Anthony.

Hydrologic Changes in the Western U.S. from

Evaluating Recent 20th Century Changes in Cool Season Precipitation and Hydropower Variability in the Western U.S. in the Context of Paleoclimatic Reconstructions.

Presentation transcript:

Alan F. Hamlet Eric P. Salathé Matt Stumbaugh Se-Yeun Lee Seshu Vaddey U.S. Army Corps of Engineers JISAO Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington Estimates of changing flood risk in the 21 st century Pacific Northwest based on regional scale climate model simulations

Floods

Evidence of Changing Flood Statistics

Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Flooding (Nov 7, 2006) Niemann, PJ, LJ Schick, FM Ralph, M Hughes, GA Wick, 2010: Flooding in Western Washington: The Connection to Atmospheric Rivers, J. of Hydrometeorology, (in review)

Effects of Projected Warming and Changing Monthly Precipitation Variability on 21 st Century Flood Risk

Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic Change, DOI: /s z 21 st Century Climate Impacts for the Pacific Northwest Region

Seasonal Precipitation Changes for the Pacific Northwest Mote, P.W. and E. P. Salathe Jr., 2010: Future climate in the Pacific Northwest, Climatic Change, DOI: /s z

Hybrid Delta Downscaling Method Performed for each VIC grid cell: Hist. Daily Timeseries Hist. Monthly Timeseries Historic Monthly CDF Bias Corrected Future Monthly CDF Projected Daily Timeseries yr window “Base Case”

2040s Changes in Flood Risk Snohomish at Monroe A1BB1 Historical 10 Member Ensemble Using the Hybrid Delta Downscaling Approach

Relationship Between Change in Q100 and Winter Temp

Overview of Key Science Questions: Will daily precipitation statistics at smaller spatial scales change differently in response to global climate change than monthly precipitation statistics at large spatial scales? Will the nature of extreme storms (such as atmospheric rivers) change in response to global climate change? Will different areas of the PNW experience substantially different changes in extreme precipitation and flood statistics (e.g. the west slopes of the Cascades vs. the east slopes)? Will the seasonal timing of flood events change?

Improving Flood Risk Projections Using High Resolution Regional Climate Models

Regional Climate Modeling at CIG  WRF Model (NOAH LSM) 36 to 12 km  ECHAM5 forcing  CCSM3 forcing (A1B and A2 scenarios)  HadRM 25 km  HadCM3 forcing

Role of Atmospheric Rivers in Flooding (Nov 7, 2006) Niemann, PJ, LJ Schick, FM Ralph, M Hughes, GA Wick, 2010: Flooding in Western Washington: The Connection to Atmospheric Rivers, J. of Hydrometeorology, (in review)

Snohomish River Near Monroe, WA

Downscaling

WRF output is first regridded to 1/16 th degree Then, for each VIC grid cell: WRF Daily Downscaling Method WRF Daily Time Series WRF Daily CDF Historical VIC Daily CDF Bias Corrected Daily Time Series The storm size distribution and time series behavior of the simulations comes directly from the daily WRF simulations.

Preliminary Results for the ECHAM5 A1B Sceario for the 2050s.

Chehalis River at Porter Daily Peak Flow (cfs) Date of Peak Flow (1 = Oct 1) Probability of Exceedence ECHAM A1B

Sauk River near Sauk ECHAM A1B Daily Peak Flow (cfs) Date of Peak Flow (1 = Oct 1) Probability of Exceedence

Boise River at Boise ECHAM A1B Daily Peak Flow (cfs) Date of Peak Flow (1 = Oct 1) Probability of Exceedence

Columbia River at The Dalles Daily Peak Flow (cfs) Date of Peak Flow (1 = Oct 1) Probability of Exceedence ECHAM A1B

Conclusions: Our initial exploration of changing flood risk in the PNW using statistical downscaling points to increasing flood risk in most areas of the region due to projected regional warming and increases in cool season precipitation. Regional climate models offer more physically based assessment tools for understanding the potential changes in nature of extreme storms (such as atmospheric rivers), the timing of flooding, and a potentially improved picture of the spatial variations in changing hydrologic extremes across the region. Initial results suggest more extreme storms in the early fall and general increases in flood intensity will accompany global climate change in the PNW. In particular, many sites show distinct shifts towards flooding earlier in the water year due to the combination of changes in snowpack and earlier storms.

Extras

Hybrid Downscaling Method Performed for each VIC grid cell: Hist. Daily Timeseries Hist. Monthly Timeseries Historic Monthly CDF Bias Corrected Future Monthly CDF Projected Daily Timeseries yr window “Base Case”

Daily Precipitation (mm) Day of Month Monthly to Daily Precipitation Scaling SeaTac. Feb, 1996, hypothetical 30% Increase