Quantitative support tools to implement EBFM: decision-support systems and gaming technology Villy Christensen University of British Columbia On the Ground & In the Water: Ecosystem-based Fisheries Management in Practice 2009 Bevan Symposium on Sustainable Fisheries

2 NOAA celebrates 200 year

3 Fitting to time series: learning from ecosystem history Numerous EwE models have in recent years – produced credible fit to historical data – made plausible policy predictions requires inclusion of environmental as well as fisheries impact Numerous EwE models have in recent years – produced credible fit to historical data – made plausible policy predictions requires inclusion of environmental as well as fisheries impact

Formal estimation Ecosystem model (predation, competition, mediation, age structured) Climate Nutrient loading Fishing Predicted C, B, Z, W, diets Observed C,B,Z,W, diets Log Likelihood ( B CC /B 0 ) (Diet 0 ) (Z 0 ) Habitat area Error pattern recognition Choice of parameters to include in final estimation (e.g., climate anomalies) Judgmental evaluation Search for minimi- zation Christensen & Walters 2005 Modeling process: fitting & drivers

The models are widely used Questionnaire responses from EwE users: 325 models constructed or under construction – 42% ecosystem structure; – 30% fisheries management; – 11% theoretical ecology; – 6% protected area evaluations Questionnaire responses from EwE users: 325 models constructed or under construction – 42% ecosystem structure; – 30% fisheries management; – 11% theoretical ecology; – 6% protected area evaluations 5 Morisette 2007

But haven’t really had much impact on actual management Partly because of lack of experience with EBFM Partly because fisheries management is not EB But, – Do we provide what’s needed? – Do we communicate in a comprehensible form?

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Ocean Summits How do you make the new Minister of Finance understand that selling licenses to foreign fleets or giving subsidies to increase the national fishing capacity may lead to lower catches, less income, higher cost, and social unrest? We are developing an approach based on best available science, and incorporating realistic simulations of the ecosystem and its socio-economic environment

Challenge Predicting the reactions of the ecosystem, economy and society to potential management actions represent a major challenge We meet the challenge by designing a scenario-testing and -visualization gaming environment where alternative outcomes can be evaluated in a scientifically credible manner

Lenfest Ocean Futures Project Villy Christensen Joe Buszowski Robyn Forrest Fang Gao Carie Hoover Joe Hui Sherman Lai Jeroen Steenbeek Will and Carl Walters Dalai Felinto Mike Pan Four year project funded by the Lenfest Ocean Program

Ocean Summits Procedure Management procedure Operating model Assessment module (ecological, economical, social) Ecosystem – value chain model Status Indicators Climate model Hydrographic model Visualization The strategy is set by the participants; arrows indicate flow of information Policy scenarios Strategy 11

Ocean Summits methodology Required elements – Redevelop EwE – Get models to talk together – The value chain – Spatial optimizations – Decision-support methodology – Visualizations – Communication 12

EwE6 overview Source code (live) available for download through cvs 13

Linking vs. Coupling Connect using – Plug-in –.NET client – TCP-IP protocol 14 Hydrographic model t = 0 … n EwE model t = 0 … n Hydrographic model t =0 t = 1. T = n EwE model t =0 t = 1. T = n file

Model coupling: cooperative activities CSIRO: Atlantis CEFAS: GOTM-BFM OGS, Trieste: BGC CSIRO: MSE framework ROMS and climate models – NOAA GFDL/Princeton – FLEM/CBREEM linking GAMS linking 15 Issues to tackle – Scale – Time

Value chain modeling 16

Value chain modeling Models the economic flow linked to the food web – from sea to plate Accounts for social aspects – jobs, salaries, dependents, … – detailed revenue and cost accounting Handles aquaculture and non-extractive use, (e.g., whale watching) 17

Spatial optimizations Ability to handle conservation layers (similar to Marxan) 18

Communicating the science 19 We’re good with spreadsheets and graphs

Visualizations & decision-support How has the system changed in historic time? What is the current state How may the system react to human impact and climate change? Science aspects – How to visualize numbers – How to facilitate human-computer interaction – How to develop a cooperative environment 20

Visualizations - renderings ‘Finding Nemo’ is rendered, image by image We use a 3D gaming engine, Blender We use rendering to make documentaries – Chesapeake Bay: 6 min’s video – Baltic Sea: planned 21

Visualizations - gaming Real-time rendering We have connected Ecosim to Blender Currently used for two ‘games’ – Single player fishing game – Multi player decision support ‘game’ 22

Multi player ‘game’ Foundation for Ocean Summits Two-way communi- cation! 23

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Big Skipper fishing game 25

Buy and operate boats 26

Accounting 27