LSP 120: Section 318 June 3, 2009

 Voting variables (participation, population, etc.) do not drastically change over the years.  While popularity may grow or decrease with the masses, it is hard to predict a shift in parties during an election.  Political pundits are reporting this data as fact instead of as mere speculation

According to this graph, in % of Americans who are of voting age will participate in the presidential election. While this figure is not out of the realm of possibility and is in close proximity to the last known data point, we cannot have confidence in the prediction because of the low R2 value.

Shows the changes in political party over time and how hard it is to think far ahead about when another change in party could happen

VOTER PARTICIPATION- 1988VOTER PARTICIPATION Voter participation increased by 4% between ‘88-’92

 In 1988: George H.W. Bush vs, Michael Dukakis  In 1992: George H.W. Bush vs. Bill Clinton  Voter turnout was 61% in 1992 due to timing, a re-election year, and the popularity of candidates

Voter turnout by race could drastically change from year to year but turns out to be not the case. Whites have the highest percentage that voted; Hispanics with the least; therefore, Caucasians have had the most impact on elections

Shows once again the limited variety in election variables. 2.3% more women than men voted in ‘92. Since 1980, women have participated more than men.

Regional turnout was fairly predictable Along with other statistics in 1992 there was an increase in voting

Statistics could not predict the drastic change in party from ‘88-’92 where around 20 states flipped from year to year.

 Charisma in the case of Bill Clinton  Duration of time a particular party holds the majority  Public opinion over policy making and decisions

 U.S. Census Bureau. (2009). Statistical Abstract of the United States (127 th Edition). Washington D.C.: US Govt. Printing Office. Retrieved May 15 th, 2009, from