Sustainable global security The role of academics Richard Parncutt University of Graz 30 April 2007 Ringvorlesung Global Studies Nachhaltigkeit und Globale Entwicklung

Contents Threats to global security The role of academics Acknowledgment John Sloboda and the Oxford Research Group

The biggest threat? “Terrorism is the greatest 21st Century threat, and there is only one rational response - to stand up to it with an "unshakeable unity of purpose" until the world is free of this evil". Tony Blair, London, November 2003 (on the occasion of the State visit of George W Bush)

US deaths from terrorism

World deaths from terrorism

Main causes of death in the USA (2001)

Terror versus climate change "I think we still overestimate the danger of terror. There are other things that are of equal, if not greater, magnitude, like the environmental global risks." (Hans Blix speaking on UK TV – March 2004)

A real threat to global security: US military in Persian gulf US was self-sufficient in oil until the 1970s CENTCOM in Persian Gulf since 1970s Primary aim is oil control Permanent US bases in Iraq: near oilfields

The invasion of Iraq: Justified by lying “developing weapons of mass destruction” “involved in 9/11” “an international terrorist threat” “The aim of the war is democracy” “Civilian casualties will be low” “Invasion is pre-emptive defense” …and people believed it!

The invasion of Iraq: illegal and undemocratic Resolution of the UN security council International demonstrations Even military objections

Iraq: civilian deaths since May 2003 Year 1=6,33120 per day Year 2=11,31231 per day Year 3*=12,61736 per day Source:

Iraq – results death torture living standards sectarian hatred civil war terrorism wasted financial resources

The main threats to global security 1. Climate change 2. Competition for resources 3. Socio-economic divisions 4. Global militarisation 5. Terrorism

Interactions between global threats Each point interacts with the others! E.g. nuclear power 1. Climate change: maybe 2. Competition for resources: no 3. Socio-economic divisions: no 4. Global militarisation: no 5. Terrorism: no

Addressing instability Global threat Control paradigm Sustain paradigm ClimateNuclear powerRenewable energy ResourcesMilitary forceReduce consumption PovertySocial controlReduce poverty MilitarisationThreatenDisarm TerrorismDeclare “war”Political dialogue

The role of academics

Why academics? Politicians can’t do everything – limited information and intellectual resources – limited time window (  next election) Academic training costs taxpayers Taxpayers should benefit Prerequisites for democracy – equal rights  political basis – freedom of speech  academic role – access to accurate information  academic role

Academic strengths Rational, logical, detached thinking – evidence  conclusion  implications Intellectual resources – academic and popular literature – reconciling contrasting viewpoints Communication and networking – international colleagues, interdisciplinary approaches – opportunities to inform the general public Imagining the unimaginable – physicists imagine quarks – academics imagine future scenarios

The end of the world? Observation: Crazy people predict the end of the world Irrational conclusion: There is no danger of an “end of the world” Implication: Don’t worry about it Maintain distance from those crazy people

A rational alternative Massive catastrophes are possible They can be caused by humans  Take responsibility  Who else will?  Work towards realistic solutions  Concrete projects rather than talk and agreements  Focus on the big picture  Detail is important but don’t get lost in it

Prioritisation: A quantitative approach 1. Estimate probability p of a catastrophe 2. Estimate number of deaths N (or equivalent suffering) 3. Prioritize political projects according to pN Example A nuclear war could kill 10, 100 oder 1000 million  rough estimate: N = 100,000,000 Probability is less than 100% and more than 1%  rough estimate: p = 10%  pN = 10 million will die if nothing is done Implication: Act now! Nothing is more urgent

Evolutionary psychology Are men inherently violent? Do men care only about their own cultural group? Is human nature such that self- destruction is inevitable? The role of rational thinking and altruism

A rational-selfish response Survival depends on altruism No clear boundary between – altruism and selfishness – Local and global Individual nations  sustainable global security

Implications for federal budgets „Global“ expenditure: 30%* – aid, development, poverty reduction: 10%* – renewable energy research and promotion: 10%* – defense, conflict res., peace research, cultural exch.: 10%* Domestic expenditure: 70%* – administration: 10%* – education: 10%* – transport: 10%* – research: 10%* – benefits: 10%* – health: 10%* – other: 10%* * Order of magnitude estimates

Implications for universities Promote global sustainability: 10% of professorships 5% of working time of all staff 5% of all curricula Political thinktank (Außeninstitut)

Professorships and venia Theology – Interfaith dialog Economics – Developmental economics Law: – International law: asylum, torture, conflict, rights, democracy Science: – Peace psychology – Intercultural sociology – Sustainable energy and agriculture – Biodiversity Humanities: – Applied history – Pacifist and minority literature, art and music

Political thinktank Aim: – Knowledge transfer on current issues – Improve profile and impact of university Products: – Press statements, publications – Conferences and presentations Content: – interdisciplinary, many authors – research based

The psychology and sociology of lying Important stage of child development – theory of mind Important aspect of everyday life – can be positive Game theory – Lying as survival or power strategy Lying in politics – Often deemed necessary to maintain power – Citizens tend to believe leaders

Lying: the role of universities Promote honest scholarship Train independent critical thinking Promote transparency using info technology Promote collegiality, oppose mobbing

Austria: A special responsibility Holocaust: the worst ever crime Wealth, freedom, democracy Unlike Germany, no communist history