Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Dylan Millet Harvard University with

Advertisements

Global Constraints on Biogenic Particles Goldschmidt Conference August 19, 2011 Colette L. Heald Photo courtesy: Cam McNaughton (taken from NASA’s DC-8)

1 Biogenic Hydrocarbons Lecture AOSC 637 Atmospheric Chemistry Russell R. Dickerson Finlayson-Pitts Chapt. 6 & 9 Seinfeld Chapt. 6 OUTLINE History Nomenclature.

Multi-scale and Ensemble Modeling of the Effects of Global Change on Air Quality in the US NW –AIRQUEST Annual Meeting Washington State University Pullman,

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH?

Organic Carbon Aerosol in the Free Troposphere: Insights from ACE-Asia and ICARTT Fall AGU December 8, 2005 Colette L. Heald, Daniel J. Jacob, Rokjin J.

Secondary Organic Aerosols: What we know and current CAM treatment Chemistry-Climate Working Group Meeting, CCSM March 22, 2006 Colette L. Heald

THE IMPORTANCE OF ORGANIC AEROSOL

Update on: 1. Secondary Organic Aerosol 2. Biogenic VOC emissions Colette L. Heald Chemistry Climate Working Group Meeting February.

Predicted change in global SOA in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral.

Organic Carbon Aerosol: An Overview (and Insight from Recent Field Campaigns) Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow

Future Inorganic Aerosol Levels 4th GEOS-Chem Users’ Meeting 9 April 2009 Havala Pye* 1, Hong Liao 2, Shiliang Wu 3,5, Loretta Mickley 3, Daniel Jacob.

Investigating the Sources of Organic Carbon Aerosol in the Atmosphere Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of.

Eric M. Leibensperger, Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University Climate response to changing.

Organic Carbon Aerosol Colette L. Heald University of California, Berkeley NOAA Summer Institute, Steamboat Springs, CO July 12, 2006.

Organic Carbon in the Troposphere: How much is there and can we predict the future? NCAR Seminar May 19, 2008 Colette L. Heald*

Organic Carbon Aerosol: Insight from recent aircraft field campaigns

Dylan Millet, Daniel Jacob, and May Fu Harvard University Thomas Kurosu and Kelly Chance Harvard-Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory Alex Guenther NCAR.

Interactions Among Air Quality and Climate Policies: Lectures 7 and 8 (abridged versions)

Global BVOC Emission Inventories:

Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Intercontinental Transport and Climatic Effects of Air Pollutants Workshop USEPA/OAQPS.

MODELING ORGANIC AEROSOL: Where are we going wrong? Colette L. Heald Telluride Workshop on Organic Aerosol August 4, 2008.

Biogenic Emissions of Organics: Global Budgets and Implications IGAC Conference, Annecy, France September 11, 2008 Colette L. Heald Russ Monson, Mick Wilkinson,

Evaluating the Role of the CO 2 Source from CO Oxidation P. Suntharalingam Harvard University TRANSCOM Meeting, Tsukuba June 14-18, 2004 Collaborators.

Havala Olson Taylor Pye April 11, 2007 Seinfeld Group Department of Chemical Engineering California Institute of Technology The Effect of Climate Change.

Global Linkages Between Vegetation, Atmospheric Composition and Climate Fall AGU Meeting, San Francisco December 19, 2008 Colette L. Heald Acknowledgements:

SOA vs POA in the Amazon: Current model estimates and predicted change Colette L. Heald Aerosols in the Amazon Workshop February.

BIOGEOSPHERIC CHANGE RESPONSE OF ECOSYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DISTRIBUTION TO ALTERED FORCING © 2007 T. Kittel Clarice Bassi - Anavilhanas.

Sensitivity of U.S. Surface Ozone to Isoprene Emissions & Chemistry: An Application of the 1°x1 ° North American Nested GEOS-CHEM Model GEOS-CHEM Model.

Modern Global Climate Change by Thomas R. Karl and Kevin E. Trenberth Summary: Ken Hu Critique: Roy Chen.

Image: NASA ECHAM5/6 projects by Quentin Bourgeois, Junbo Cui, Gabriela Sousa Santos, Tanja Stanelle C2SM’s research group - Isabelle Bey.

Emissions of Volatile Organic Compounds by Plants Carbon Metabolism and Atmospheric Chemistry Kolby Jardine Amazon-PIRE Field Course June 2010.

Modeling Elemental Composition of Organic Aerosol: Exploiting Laboratory and Ambient Measurement and the Implications of the Gap Between Them Qi Chen*

Prediction of Future North American Air Quality Gabriele Pfister, Stacy Walters, Mary Barth, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Wong Atmospheric Chemistry Division,

Contribution from Natural Sources of Aerosol Particles to PM in Canada Sunling Gong Scientific Team: Tianliang Zhao, David Lavoue, Richard Leaitch,

Land Use Change Impacts on Air Quality and Climate* AGU Fall Meeting December 19, 2014 Colette L. Heald Dominick V. Spracklen *review article submitted.

Office of Research and Development National Exposure Research Laboratory | Atmospheric Modeling and Analysis Division| A Tale of Two Models: A Comparison.

1 Investigating Links between Atmospheric Chemistry, Climate, and the Biosphere Loretta J. Mickley, 4 November with Amos Tai, Lee Murray, Xu Yue,

Mapping isoprene emissions from space Dylan Millet with

Natural and Anthropogenic Carbon-Climate System Feedbacks Scott C. Doney 1, Keith Lindsay 2, Inez Fung 3 & Jasmin John 3 1-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution;

The Impact of Pine Beetle Kill on Monoterpene Emissions and Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation in Western North America Ashley R. Berg (CSU) and Colette.

Request for LAOF facilities in support of SOAS: Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study SOAS Science Objective: To quantify biogenic emissions and anthropogenic.

Effect of CO 2 Inhibition of Isoprene Emission Air quality under changes in climate, vegetation and land use Amos P. K. Tai (With Loretta Mickley,

. s Yuqiang Zhang 1, J. Jason West 1, Meridith M. Fry 1, Raquel A. Silva 1, Steven J. Smith 2, Vaishali Naik 4, Zachariah Adelman 1, Susan C. Anenberg.

The GEOS-CHEM Simulation of Trace Gases over China Li ZHANG and Hong LIAO Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences April 24, 2008.

Assessment of the Impacts of Global Change on Regional U.S. Air Quality: A synthesis of climate change impacts on ground-level ozone An Interim Report.

QUESTIONS 1.Is hexane more or less reactive with OH than propane? 2.Is pentene or isoprene more reactive with OH? 3.Using the EKMA diagram (the ozone isopleth.

OVERVIEW OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES: Daniel J. Jacob Ozone and particulate matter (PM) with a global change perspective.

TEMIS User Workshop, Frascati, Italy October 8-9, 2007 Formaldehyde application Derivation of updated pyrogenic and biogenic hydrocarbon emissions over.

1 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research Vegetation dynamics in simulations of radiatively-forced climate change Richard A. Betts, Chris D.

1 UIUC ATMOS 397G Biogeochemical Cycles and Global Change Lecture 14: Methane and CO Don Wuebbles Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Illinois,

Climatic implications of changes in O 3 Loretta J. Mickley, Daniel J. Jacob Harvard University David Rind Goddard Institute for Space Studies How well.

Peak 8-hr Ozone Model Performance when using Biogenic VOC estimated by MEGAN and BIOME (BEIS) Kirk Baker Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium October.

MAPPING ISOPRENE EMISSIONS FROM SPACE USING OMI FORMALDEHYDE MEASUREMENTS Dylan B. Millet, Daniel J. Jacob, K. Folkert Boersma, Justin P. Parrella Atmospheric.

Review: Constraining global isoprene emissions with GOME formaldehyde column measurements Shim et al. Luz Teresa Padró Wei-Chun Hsieh Zhijun Zhao.

Organic aerosol composition and aging in the atmosphere: How to fit laboratory experiments, field data, and modeling together American Chemical Society.

Simulating the impacts of Large Scale Insect- and Disease- Driven Tree Mortality on atmospheric chemistry Colette Heald, Sam Silva Department of Civil.

Recent and predicted changes in atmospheric composition over the United States from climate, emissions and bark beetles Fall AGU Meeting December 6, 2012.

Land Use Change Impacts on Aerosols International Aerosol Modeling Algorithms Meeting December 10, 2015 Colette L. Heald Jeff Geddes, Sam Silva, Ashley.

Investigating Climate Impacts of Land Cover Change in the Community Land Model (CLM) Peter Lawrence and Thomas Chase CIRES, University of Colorado Slide.

Global Simulation of Secondary Organic Carbon Aerosols Hong Liao California Institute of Technology GEOS-CHEM meeting, April 2005.

Yuqiang Zhang1, Owen R, Cooper2,3, J. Jason West1

Chemistry-climate interactions in CCSM

up until since Jan 2008 PhD NOAA postdoc Asst. Professor

Top-down constraints on emissions of biogenic trace gases from North America Dylan Millet with D.J. Jacob, R.C. Hudman, S. Turquety, C. Holmes (Harvard)

Global Budgets of Atmospheric Glyoxal and Methylglyoxal and Implications for Formation of Secondary Organic Aerosols CHOCHO (glyoxal) Tzung-May Fu, Daniel.

Lindsey Gulden Physical Climatology December 1, 2005

Organic Aerosol is Ubiquitous in the Atmosphere

Effects of global change on U.S. ozone air quality

Potential Anthropogenic Controls on Biogenic Organic Aerosol

Presentation transcript:

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley Daven Henze, Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics July 9, 2007

ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL Semi- Volatiles Oxidation by OH, O 3, NO 3 Direct Emission Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning Monoterpenes Sesquiterpenes Partitioning (non-linear) Aromatics ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCESBIOGENIC SOURCES Isoprene S econdary O rganic A erosol P rimary O rganic A erosol

WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE… Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie  globally more than sulfate [Zhang et al., in press] Sulfate Organics

MODELING FRAMEWORK Community Land Model (CLM3) Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007] Feddema et al. [2007] LAI (MODIS) Plant Functional Types Soil moisture Vegetation Temperature BVOC Algorithms [Guenther et al., 1995; 2006] Monterpenes: GEIA Isoprene: MEGAN Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3) Chemistry Transport Radiation BVOC Emissions Vegetation Meteorology Radiation Precipitation SOA production 2-product model from oxidation of: 1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002] 2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006] 3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007] Anthropogenic Emissions, GHG concentrations, SST

PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived  dominates burden

PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS 496 TgC/yr 2100: 607 TgC/yr 43 TgC/yr 2100: 51 TgC/yr 22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)

PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS 45 TgC/yr 16 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 20 TgC/yr A2: 35 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 72 TgC/yr A2: 96 TgC/yr Large increases predicted, especially over Asia

CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY Surface SOA Zonal SOA Δ Anthropogenic Emissions Δ Biogenic Emissions Δ Climate +7% Global Burden +26% +6%

CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2) SOA (TOTAL) BVOC emissions Feddema et al. [2007] Projections Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14% Isoprene Monoterpenes

TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA Climate and Emission: +36% Anthropogenic Land-use: -14% Natural Vegetation: ?? TOTAL SOA

SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).

CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓ but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions. Surface NO/HO 2

INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS? Present-Day Burden: TgS 1 Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100? SULFATE SOA 1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000] Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC Projection: 36%↑ SOA Burden Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate