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California High Speed Rail And how to get the best rail for the best price! Fredrick Schermer Penta Publishing Production 

California High Speed Rail What would aliens conclude when looking from outer space at the California high-speed rail system?

Aliens could conclude that California has central command, and that Fresno is its Capital ! is living in a 19 th /20 th Century setting,

First to notice are five terminals; some in close proximity. There are no connections between the 5 terminals; an indication that these locations are not of most importance. Aliens know that the fastest line is a straight line, and wonder about big bends.

They conclude that the geographical situation must force the result. Aliens know that the fastest line is a straight line, and wonder about big bends.

What are the locations where the most important humans reside? This location must be important. More so than the two nearby un-connected nearby un-connected terminal locations. This well connected location is more impor- tant than either location in the south. This location must be important too, but less so than: This location is important but ranks below the other because it is not connected to the San Diego terminal.

FRESNO ! ! ! Fresno is connected to all terminals and to all important locations. No doubt about it! It’s the Capital. FRESNO ! ! !

California has central command over large population centers - themselves not interconnected!

California must be in a 19 th /20 th C. time frame based on it not making optimal use of transit system knowledge of the 20 th /21 st Century (more about this later).

Let’s start from what we’ve got! Let’s first look at population distribution.

15,600,000 people 7,300,000 people 3,300,000 people 3,000,000 people Source: Rand 2007

15,600,000 people 7,300,000 people 3,300,000 people 3,000,000 people 77.5% of the entire California population 29,200,000 people + More than 3 out of every 4 Californians

15,600,000 people 7,300,000 people 3,300,000 people 3,000,000 people Source: Rand 2007 Medium sized cities with growth forecasts Small but still important cities

The two largest population centers must receive prime position and connect on a straight line to maximize speed and attraction for the largest populations. The next step is to connect the remaining largest population centers, while keeping a close eye on direction and speed. 15,600,000 people 7,300,000 people 3,300,000 people 3,000,000 Making side trips to smaller cities on the left and right diminishes the high speed product. The number of stops needs to be as few as possible to maximize speed and use. Only one place lies close by enough to change this alignment without negative impact. 800,000 people Population 15,600,000 7,300,000 3,300,000 3,000, , ,000,000

This is the F3MA Fastest Maximum Money Making Alignment Population 15,600,000 7,300,000 3,300,000 3,000, , ,000,000

Let’s look at the rail transit systems already in place, ‘easy’ to put in place, or easy to adjust, that could deliver further support for this alignment. 550,000 2,850,000 1,700,000 1,900, ,000,000 98% Population Population 15,600,000 7,300,000 3,300,000 3,000, , ,000,000

Areas with local rail transit Areas without it Having local rail transit in place improves the number of people using High Speed Rail.

Fewest Stops of F3MA High Speed Rail Sacramento Station San Francisco Bay Station (Oakland) San Jose Station Avenal Station Bakersfield Station Burbank Station Los Angeles Station Orange County Station San Diego Station

What would the result be for California in 2050? Areas with accelerated growth due to version A:

Growth acceleration due to version B: Version B shows a further concentration of the existing urban areas; as desired in the plans for California (SB375).

Operational Differences San Francisco Bay Station San Diego Station

For the same operational level of service, one needs to SFB StationSD Station go faster or use more trains Either way is more expensive or lead to the California High-Speed Rail perform slower.

Are others making the same decisions as California? Let’s view the High-Speed Rail decisions made in the Netherlands, where The Hague and Rotterdam are found along the best alignment. Yet having a stop in both cities diminishes the High-Speed Rail product. The Hague is where the decision makers reside; 12 miles away from Rotterdam.

High-Speed Rail Decisions in Holland Which city should have a station? Rotterdam? The Hague? The government decides and is seated in The Hague. Source: Mapping Netherlands B.V.

Source: High Speed Rail Netherlands Source: RET Source: GVB Amsterdam Rotterdam

Not only did the decision makers decide against themselves in The Hague, not getting the best connection with the European Capital of Brussels nor with Paris and London, but the stations In Amsterdam and Rotterdam are not perse in the hearts of the cities, but at the hearts of transit: the well-connected Central Stations. The High-Speed Rail alignment is a straight line from A to B, and the reason is simply, because not making the top performer in transit perform at its best, trickles down and diminishes all forms of transit hooking up with that High-Speed Rail. That would be a waste of money. In Europe all High-Speed lines are designed along straight lines from important city to important city.

Version AVersion B Expensive to build Expensive to operate Less expensive to operate FastFaster Politicians’ decisionProduct-based decision Future adjustments possible Future adjustments easier Urban California spreading Urban California spreading less Politicians’ dreamUsers’ dream Requires more investing in regular infrastructure (roads) Requires less investing in regular infrastructure (roads)

Literature Review  California High-Speed Rail Authority  Metropolitan Transportation Commission  California Department of Transportation  San Francisco City Scape  Bay Area Council  SPUR  California Light Rail Pushkarev, B., J. Zupan  Urban Rail in America, An Exploration of Criteria for Fixed- Guideway Transit (1982) Indiana University Press, Bloomington Vuchic, Vukan R.  Urban Transportation Systems and Technology (1982) Prentice- Hall, Englewood Cliffs

California High Speed Rail And how to get the best rail for the best price! Fredrick Schermer Penta Publishing Production