Feasibility to include forest fire emission rates in operational air quality model Jacques Rousseau & Dr David Lavoué Team members : Gilles Morneau Nedka Pentcheva Montréal, July 7, 2002 Environnement Environment Canada Canada AQRB project, Mid-term Review, October 26, 2004

Short term objectives Long term objectives Feasibility to include forest fire emission rate in air quality model : A case study Long term objectives Integrate in real time emission rates from forest fire with a dynamic model in order to simulate adequately wildfire in air quality model to improve air quality forecast on daily basis

Methodology Case study : Major wild forest fires over northern Quebec region from June 28 to July 15, 2002 Data acquisition - 133 different sites of forest fire identify during the event - Hourly PM2.5 data : 47 Can. & 24 USA stations Process - Build hourly PM2.5 emission rate for all forest fire sites - 23 986 entry of emission rate in CHRONOS model - Run CHRONOS with and without forest fire emission rate Results - Output Model comparison with PM2.5 observations

Quebec Fires in 2002 July 1 Emissions(X) = A x (ß x B) x EF(X)

Elapsed time since ignition (hours) Area burned (hectares) sigmoidal growth Hourly Area Burned Elapsed time since ignition (hours) Area burned (hectares) diurnal variability

Hourly PM2.5 Emissions Average and constant fuel consumption amount by ecoregion Total = 355 Gg of PM2.5 Max ~ 3000 t of PM2.5 /hour July 9

July 6, 2002 Terra MODIS 1546-1553 UTC (NASA) CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6 CHRONOS with forest fire emission (µg/m3)

Cross section from Toronto to Ottawa (µg/m3) 3000 2000 1000 Sfc (m) Cross section from Toronto to Ottawa (µg/m3)

July 7, 2002 Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA) CHRONOS with forest fire emission CHRONOS control run 16Z July 6 (µg/m3)

(µg/m3)

July 8, 2002 Terra MODIS 1629-1641 UTC (NASA) CHRONOS with forest fire emission CHRONOS control run 16Z July 8 (µg/m3)

Cross section Maine - New Brunswick (West to East) 3000 2000 1000 Sfc (m) Cross section Maine - New Brunswick (West to East)

Results Ontario 20% Québec 30% Maritimes 25% U.S.A. 25% Forest fire emission - Model control Data Observations - Model control Improvement = Results Test others vertical distribution of emission rate at fire sites Adequacy of PM2.5 dispersion in GEM-CHRONOS Study PM2.5 deposition mechanism in CHRONOS x 100

Improvement of the Emissions weather records from single site in fire region gridded fire behavior with GEM implement Canadian FWI and FBP systems to determine hourly fuel consumption and rate of spread

Hourly Fuel Consumption fuel consumption variability with hourly FWI and FBP systems Hourly Fuel Consumption June July Average for central QC

Hourly PM2.5 Emissions 7 July New max ~ 3500 t of PM2.5 /hour + 30 % New total = 370 Gg of PM2.5 New max ~ 3500 t of PM2.5 /hour 7 July + 30 %

Future Work Create database of different emission rates based on different type of forest fires and vegetation over Canada and USA Develop protocol for real-time data acquisition of wildfire events Develop a tool to transform forest fire data into hourly emission rates with dynamic model Develop a tool to integrate field emission rates from forest fire into CHRONOS model Validation of the whole process with cases studies Reporting the results