Louisiana’s Comprehensive Master Plan for a Sustainable Coast: 2012 Update Karim Belhadjali – Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority

Builds on Other Efforts 2

1.Reduce economic losses from storm-based flooding 2.Promote a sustainable coastal ecosystem by harnessing natural system processes 3.Provide habitats suitable to support an array of commercial and recreational activities coast- wide 4.Sustain Louisiana’s unique heritage and culture 5. Provide a viable working coast to support industry. Linking Back to Master Plan Objectives

Specific & Realistic Goals & Objectives Prioritized Project List Map showing the selected projects and what they provide: Levels of risk reduction Levels of ecosystem services across the coast Extent and character of future landscape Detailed Implementation plan with: Schedule, Costs, Expected sources of funding Adaptive Management plan to guide implementation Key Components of 2012 Update 4

Elements of 2012 Master Plan with Building Blocks for Other Efforts

Project Team & Collaborative Effort 6

Master Plan Delivery Team 7 Coastal ScientistsPlannersEngineersSocial Scientists

Review and Coordination Project Effects Models Technical Advisory Committee Prioritization Tool Technical Advisory Committee Master Plan Delivery Team Cultural Heritage Technical Advisory Committee CPRA Coastal Protection and Restoration Authority Science & Engineering Board (MP-SEB) Framework Development Team (FDT) Stakeholders Modeling Workgroups

Project-Effects Models Steve Ashby, USACE Eng. Res. Dev. Center John Callaway, University of San Francisco Fred Sklar, South Florida Water Mgmt. District Si Simenstad, University of Washington Prioritization Tool TAC John Boland, John Hopkins Ben Hobbs, John Hopkins Len Shabman, Virginia Tech Cultural Heritage TAC Don Davis, Louisiana State University Carl Brasseaux, University of Louisiana Lafayette Maida Owens, LA Dept. of Cultural, Recreation, Tourism Technical Advisory Committee Members 9

Ecosystem Science / Coastal Ecology William Dennison, University of Maryland Edward Houde, University of Maryland Katherine Ewell, University of Florida Engineering Robert Dalrymple, Johns Hopkins University Jos Dijkman, Deltares Geosciences Charles Groat, University of Texas at Austin Social Science and Risk Greg Baecher, University of Maryland Philip Berke, University of North Carolina – Chapel Hill Climate Change Virginia Burkett, U.S. Geological Survey Environmental/Natural Resource Economics Edward Barbier, University of Wyoming National Science and Engineering Board - Independent Technical Review 10

Framework Development Team- Over 30 Federal, State, NGO, Academic, Community, and Industry Organizations 11

Predictive Models Overview

Predictive Modeling Team CPRA Team Leads –Mandy Green (Planning) –Carol Parsons-Richards (LACES) Technical Lead –Dr. Denise Reed (UNO) Technical Coordination –Alaina Owens (Brown and Caldwell) 7 Model Teams Over 50 Experts

Predictive ModelWorkgroup Leader + Members Eco-hydrologyDr. Ehab Meselhe, ULL + 9 members VegetationDr. Jenneke Visser, ULL + 8 members Wetland MorphologyDr. Greg Steyer, USGS + 6 members Barrier Island Morphology Dr. Mark Kulp, UNO + 6 members Upper Trophic LevelDr. Andy Nyman, LSU + 8 members Storm SurgeDr. Joe Suhayda/Arcadis, + 3 members Storm Damage/RiskDr. Jordan Fischbach, RAND + 7 members Data IntegrationCraig Conzelmann and USGS team Predictive Models Workgroups

Predictive Models Dr. Steve Ashby, USACE - Engineer Research and Development Center Dr. John Callaway, University of San Francisco Dr. Fred Sklar, South Florida Water Mgmt. District Dr. Si Simenstad, University of Washington Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)

Predictive Models Overview Eco-Hydrology Mass-balance box model Output – 16 variables stage, salinity, sediment, water quality Wetland Morphology 4 submodels - changes in the landscape Output – land change, fragmentation, elevation, SOC Barrier Shoreline Morphology Changes in tidal inlet area, location, area, and elevation Vegetation Probability of death / establishment of 21 vegetation classes, per salinity, inundation

Predictive Models (cont’d.) Upper Trophic Level Habitat Suitability Indices 14 species and 1 functional group Storm Surge and Wave Coarsened AdCirc grid (used by USACE) Use output from wetland /barrier morphology and vegetation to modify grid points Output – storm surge and wave elevation Risk Assessment (damage) Surge elevation, value of assets (commercial, residential, infrastructure, strategic assets) Output – flood depths and resulting residual damages ($) Data Integration File naming, automations, model linkages and data transfer

Modeling in a Systems Context 20 Eco- Hydrology Surge Vegetation Damage Upper Trophic Wetland Morphology Barrier Island Morphology Stage, Salinity Sediment Stage, Salinity Stage, Salinity, Water Quality Dominant Vegetation Dominant Vegetation Land Configuration, Elevation Stage Island Configuration Land Configuration, Elevation Surge, Waves Dominant Vegetation Damage, $ Habitat Suitability Index Data Integration

Modeling in a Systems Context 21 Eco- Hydrology Surge Vegetation Damage Upper Trophic Wetland Morphology Barrier Island Morphology Stage, Salinity Sediment Stage, Salinity Stage, Salinity, Water Quality Dominant Vegetation Dominant Vegetation Land Configuration, Elevation Stage Island Configuration Land Configuration, Elevation Surge, Waves Dominant Vegetation Damage, $ Habitat Suitability Index Data Integration

1. INPUTS  Wind speed & direction  Water depth  Salinity  Water temp  Land area  Gulf stage  Gulf salinity  Gulf nutrients  Air temp  Riv discharge  Riv sediment  Riv nutrients  Diversion flows  Atmospheric deposition  Rainfall  Evapotrans 1. INPUTS  Wind speed & direction  Water depth  Salinity  Water temp  Land area  Gulf stage  Gulf salinity  Gulf nutrients  Air temp  Riv discharge  Riv sediment  Riv nutrients  Diversion flows  Atmospheric deposition  Rainfall  Evapotrans 1. OUTPUTS  Stage  Salinity  Water temp  Sed retention  Accretion  Total Kjeldahl N  Tidal prism  Nitrate + nitrite  Ammonium N  Dissolved org N  Total P  Dissolved org P  Dissolved inorg P  Chlorophyll a  Detritus  Residence time  N removal rate 1. OUTPUTS  Stage  Salinity  Water temp  Sed retention  Accretion  Total Kjeldahl N  Tidal prism  Nitrate + nitrite  Ammonium N  Dissolved org N  Total P  Dissolved org P  Dissolved inorg P  Chlorophyll a  Detritus  Residence time  N removal rate 2. INPUTS  Land/water  Land change rates  Elevation  Avg band 5 Reflectance  Eustatic SLR  Subsidence  Compaction  Freshwater input  Sed supply  Bulk density, %OM, %mineral  Accretion & elev  Salinity  Inundation  Marsh type & dominant species  SURRGO Soils 2. INPUTS  Land/water  Land change rates  Elevation  Avg band 5 Reflectance  Eustatic SLR  Subsidence  Compaction  Freshwater input  Sed supply  Bulk density, %OM, %mineral  Accretion & elev  Salinity  Inundation  Marsh type & dominant species  SURRGO Soils 2. OUTPUTS  Land change  Fragmentation  Elevation  Soil Org C 2. OUTPUTS  Land change  Fragmentation  Elevation  Soil Org C 4. INPUTS  Vegetation Distribution  Land area/ distribution  Elevation  Water level  Salinity  Nitrogen 4. INPUTS  Vegetation Distribution  Land area/ distribution  Elevation  Water level  Salinity  Nitrogen 4. OUTPUTS  % of each vegetation class in each cell 4. OUTPUTS  % of each vegetation class in each cell 5. INPUTS  Water depth & fluctuation  Salinity; Water temp  TSS ; Dissolved O  Chlorophyll a  Marsh edge; % open water  % emergent veg (by type)  River nutrients  Island surface area & distance  % submerged substrate covered by emergent veg  Water depth in wooded wetlands  % area within 3 km (< 9 ppt salinity & depth 1-30 cm)  % area (1-12 cm deep)  % area within 10 km (1-12 cm deep)  % cultch cover on bottom  Similarity index around the cell 5. INPUTS  Water depth & fluctuation  Salinity; Water temp  TSS ; Dissolved O  Chlorophyll a  Marsh edge; % open water  % emergent veg (by type)  River nutrients  Island surface area & distance  % submerged substrate covered by emergent veg  Water depth in wooded wetlands  % area within 3 km (< 9 ppt salinity & depth 1-30 cm)  % area (1-12 cm deep)  % area within 10 km (1-12 cm deep)  % cultch cover on bottom  Similarity index around the cell 5. OUTPUTS Habitat Suitability Indices for 15 species:  Crawfish  Alligator  Largemouth bass  Mottled duck  Gadwall  Green-wing teal  River otter  Muskrat  White shrimp  Brown shrimp  Oyster  Spotted sea trout  Roseate spoonbill  Neotropical migrants  Black drum 5. OUTPUTS Habitat Suitability Indices for 15 species:  Crawfish  Alligator  Largemouth bass  Mottled duck  Gadwall  Green-wing teal  River otter  Muskrat  White shrimp  Brown shrimp  Oyster  Spotted sea trout  Roseate spoonbill  Neotropical migrants  Black drum 3. INPUTS  Historical shoreline & bathymetry  Tidal inlet configuration  Sediment character  LiDAR elev  Land area distribution & elev  Waves & surge  Water elev & tidal velocity at inlets 3. INPUTS  Historical shoreline & bathymetry  Tidal inlet configuration  Sediment character  LiDAR elev  Land area distribution & elev  Waves & surge  Water elev & tidal velocity at inlets 3. OUTPUTS  Barrier area & geometry  Inlet config  Shoreline position 3. OUTPUTS  Barrier area & geometry  Inlet config  Shoreline position 6. INPUTS  Land area distribution & elev  % of each vegetation class  Barrier island geometry  Inlet config  Shoreline position 6. INPUTS  Land area distribution & elev  % of each vegetation class  Barrier island geometry  Inlet config  Shoreline position 6. OUTPUTS  Surge hydrographs  Waves 6. OUTPUTS  Surge hydrographs  Waves 7. OUTPUTS  Residential risk/damage 7. OUTPUTS  Residential risk/damage 7. INPUTS  Surge hydrographs  Waves  Protection system inputs 7. INPUTS  Surge hydrographs  Waves  Protection system inputs Inputs, Outputs 1. Eco- Hydrology 6. Surge 4. Vegetation 7. Damage 5. Upper Trophic 2. Wetland Morphology 3. Barrier Morphology

All of the modules are running FWOA in progress Production mode On-going technical oversight (TAC) Assessment of model uncertainty USACE model certification Modeling Status and Next Steps

Maps showing ranges of Master Plan outcomes Levels of flood protection Levels of ecosystem services Extent and character of landscape Adaptive management plan to guide implementation Maps of near-term projects Maps of potential future project Schedule Costs Expected sources of funding 2012 Master Plan Outputs

27 Questions? For more information, send an to or go to coastalmasterplan.la.gov

Uncertainty Analysis 28 Ecosystem Modules Surge/Wave Module Flood Damage Module Prioritization Tool 1) Sea level rise 2) Subsidence 3) Marsh collapse threshold 4) Storm frequency and intensity 5) River discharge 6) Rainfall 7) Evapo-transpiration 8) Nutrients Ecosystem service outcomes 9) Demographics 10) Induced development 11) Drainage performance 12) Structural system fragility 13) Effectiveness of non- structural measures Bathy-topo outcomes 14) Project costs 15) Project time to completion 16) Available funding Flood damage outcomes 16 uncertainties identified by modeling groups

Seven Modules: Overview of Project-Effects Models

Eco-Hydrology Team Ehab Meselhe Team Lead, Chenier Plain Model Alex McCorquodalePontchartrain and Barataria Model Jonathan Hird and Jeff Sheldon Terrebonne and Atchafalaya Models Stokka BrownTechnical Support 30

Barrier Shoreline Team Mark KulpTeam Lead Ioannis GeorgiouBarrier Shoreline and Tidal Inlet Morphology and Dynamics Dallon WeathersBarrier Shoreline Morphology, Dynamics Zoe HughesBarrier and Tidal Inlet Morphology and Dynamics Duncan FitzGeraldTidal Inlet Morphology and Dynamic Abby SallengerBarrier Shoreline Elevation Morphology and Dynamics Darin LeeScientific input and internal review 31

Greg Steyer Lead Wetland productivity Brady Couvillion Model Development (w/Bill Sleavin) Landscape Trend Analysis Input Data (w/Nadine Trahan and Holly Beck) Hongqing Wang Model Development (programming, modification, calibration and validation) Craig Fischenich Hydrodynamic and depositional processes Erosional processes Linkage with barrier islands and/or storm surge John Rybczyk Relative elevation models (model modification, parameters/coefficients w/G. Holm and B. Perez) Organic matter/nutrient/bulk density contributions Yvonne Allen Hyper-temporal rate examination Inundation pattern assessment/RSLR Ron Boustany Organic matter/nutrient/bulk density contributions Wetlands Morphology Team

Jenneke VisserTeam Lead Scott Duke-SylvesterAlgorithm development and implementation Whitney BroussardAlgorithm development and implementation Jacoby CarterAlgorithm development and implementation Hongqing Wang Algorithm development and data exchange with other modules Mark HesterScientific input and internal review Ken KraussScientific input and internal review Rebecca HowardScientific input and internal review Charles SasserScientific input and internal review Vegetation Team 33

Andy Nyman, Team Lead American alligator muskrat river otter Don Baltz black drum speckled trout brown shrimp white shrimp Michael Kaller largemouth bass Paul Leberg gadwall green-winged teal mottled duck neotropical migrants roseate spoonbill Robert Romaire wild-caught crawfish Tom Soniat Eastern oyster Craig Conzelmann & USGSTeam Model coding Higher Trophic Level Team 34

Joseph SuhaydaTeam Lead, Advisor Hugh RobertsSurge modeling John AtkinsonSurge modeling Ryan ClarkTechnical support Surge / Wave Team 35

Risk Assessment Team Joseph SuhaydaTeam Lead, Advisor Jordan FischbachModeling, risk assessment lead David OrtizModeling, risk assessment advisor Nicholas BurgerTeam Member Matthew HooverTeam Member David JohnsonTeam Member Jordan OstwaldTeam Member Benjamin BryantTeam Member 36