Public Opinion How closely should the government follow public opinion? In 2010, public opinion was sharply divided over health care reform. Some Americans opposed any further government intervention in the health care industry.

Public Opinion Democratic governments should reflect the will of the people How do we know what that is? Average citizens do not always have informed opinions about every issue, and thus are open to influence

Fundamental Values Most Americans share a belief in a common set of principles FIGURE 5.1 Americans’ Support for Fundamental Values SOURCES: Gallup Poll, 2008; Opinion Dynamics, 2007; and New England Survey Research Associates, 2007. It may be useful to note that these numbers can drop dramatically depending on what question is asked—the point being that most Americans are supportive of the principles involved more often than they are supportive of how these principles are applied to groups they don’t like. This table does examine homosexuals, but we have seen many polls over the decades where the principle is defended, but when unpopular groups are mentioned by name, the percentages drop dramatically.

Political Values Political Socialization: The process through which underlying political beliefs and values are formed Our underlying beliefs tend to shape how we approach new information Those underlying beliefs are shaped by our life experiences, especially those involving family upbringing, social groups, education, and the general political climate The term “political socialization” is telling, because we come to adopt our beliefs not in a vacuum but through interacting with others. This is a point that will be driven home throughout the chapter: We come to see the world in a certain way due to the stories we hear told about it, and as we get older, we tend to surround ourselves with those who think like we do and who will reinforce our existing beliefs.

Influences on Our Political Values Family The stories we hear growing up in our families can be highly influential if they are coherent and consistent Social Groups If people of the same backgrounds tend to have similar life experiences, then it is possible those experiences will shape their understanding of the political world Here you may want to tell a story from your own childhood about the stories that were told when you were young. In The Death of a President by William Manchester, he reports that when President Kennedy was assassinated, a principal went into an elementary school in Texas to tell the children, who to her surprise started cheering and clapping. The reason was because they lived in households that hated Kennedy and heard their parents say negative things about the President. You may want to put up the next slide while asking if students expected to see differences like this between other groupings. Might, say, Jews and Protestants have different opinions? Why or why not? In any event, this is an important opportunity to drive home the point that there is nothing inherent or biological about being black, or Jewish, or from a certain country, that makes one likely to hold the same beliefs as those like them; rather, it is that they happen to share similar experiences and interactions with one another that make members of a group tend to have similar beliefs.

Influences on Our Political Values Members of various social groups may see political issues in different ways. After a racially charged incident in 2009 involving Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates Jr. (second from left) and police officer James Crowely (second from right), President Obama tried to address the tensions surrounding the incident by bringing the two men together for a “beer summit” at the White House.

Influences on Our Political Values FIGURE 5.2 Disagreement among Blacks and Whites SOURCES: CNN, www.cnn.com/2006/US/12/12/racism.poll/index.html; Gallup, Inc., www.gallup.com/poll/11686/Race–Education–Years–After–Brown–Board–Education.aspx; and Pew Research Center Publications, http://pewresearch.org/pubs/531/democratic-debate (accessed 4/1/08).

Influences on Our Political Values The Gender Gap Due to their experiences in life, men and women often see issues differently Insert Table 5.1 here

Disagreements among Men and Women on National Security Issues TABLE 5.1 Disagreements among Men and Women on National Security Issues For the most part, fewer women than men favor the use of military force as an instrument of foreign policy. Is this pattern refl ected consistently in the data? What might explain gender differences in this realm? SOURCES: ABC, 2009; Ms., 2006; UPI/Zogby, 2007, USA Today, 2007; Washington Post/ABC, 2007; CBS, 2009.

Influences on Our Political Values Education One point made later on in the text concerns efficacy. College is where many Americans learn how to become politically involved, and indeed, many student organizations subsidize student involvement by making it easier to act: they provide the petitions, they offer buses to rallies, and they offer social rewards for becoming active.

Influences on Our Political Values Political Conditions Race relations Feminism Personal freedoms versus national security The obvious point to make here is that we do not live in a vacuum, and the larger circumstances that surround us shape our interpretations of events. Feminism may mean something different to women who had to grow up in a world where men were expected to work and women to stay at home once they got married than it means to young women growing up today in a far more egalitarian environment. The same can be said for racial attitudes of Americans who grew up in the segregated south. You may want to mention that college students today are far more accepting of security measures post-9/11 than students most likely would have been prior to that.

Political Ideologies Ideology: A set of underlying orientations, ideas, and beliefs Liberalism and conservatism are two main political ideologies in the U.S. today It may be helpful to teach this section by asking how students see the two ideologies. What issues do they mention? One useful tool is to show that the two ideologies are, in effect, forced to consume more issue space than they possibly can. Are libertarians conservative (low taxes, low redistribution) or liberal (legalization of drugs and homosexual marriage)? The same goes for populism. One reason why these two ideologies are so hard to pin down is because there are at least three varieties of each, and they clash internally with each other in critical ways.

From Political Values to Ideology During the 1960s and early 1970s, anti–Vietnam War protestors staged numerous demonstrations.

Political Ideologies Liberalism (Domestic) Government involvement in economy to protect workers Expansion of social services Efforts on behalf of the poor, minorities, women, consumers, and the environment Rights for the accused Separation of church and state

Political Ideologies Liberalism (Foreign Affairs) Favor arms control Opposition to expansion of nuclear weapons Support aid to poor nations Opposition to the use of American troops to influence the domestic affairs of developing countries Support for international organizations Students may ask about President Obama increasing troops in Afghanistan, and this is an opportunity to explain that liberalism and the Democratic Party are not one and the same and that, at times, there are actions we feel the need to take despite our political orientations.

Political Ideologies Conservatism (Domestic) Opposed to social and economic engineering such as wealth redistribution and affirmative action Favor light regulation of business, low taxation, traditional family structures, and school prayer Concern for victims of crimes over perpetrators

Political Ideologies Conservatism (Foreign Affairs) Support for military power Distrust of entanglements with international organizations

Americans’ Shifting Ideology, 1992–2009 FIGURE 5.3 Americans’ Shifting Ideology, 1992–2009 Over the past thirty years, the percentage of Americans claiming to be conservative or liberal has increased, whereas the percentage calling themselves moderates has not. Can you think of any reasons for this change? Would more moderates be better for democracy? SOURCE: Gallup.com (accessed 8/5/10).

Political Knowledge Political Knowledge The more we know the more we can: integrate new knowledge into our interpretations understand what new data are important Most Americans have limited political knowledge Political knowledge leads to political efficacy A point to mention is that people who are low in political knowledge have a hard time even knowing where to start in terms of learning about politics or getting involved enough to become informed. Students who have studied government early in their lives are not only more able to investigate more, but are also more willing to do so because the process does not seem foreign, over complicated, or pointless.

Shaping Public Opinion Three very powerful sources of influence over public opinion: Political leaders Private groups The media This may be the time to point out to students the stunning resources a President can muster if he or she is clever about it. Only the President can claim to speak for the entire nation, and the symbolic power of the office is quite extensive. The Rose Garden, Air Force One, Hail to the Chief, the Symbol of the President, the military honor guards, and the Oval Office all surround the President with the aura of power. If used infrequently, presidential addresses tend to be covered at prime time by all of the major networks.

Shaping Public Opinion Political Leaders Presidential administrations have enormous capacities to shape public opinion Stress certain issues and not others Influence how departments depict issues

Shaping Public Opinion Private Groups Many groups have a very wide reach into society, especially churches Employ their specialists to deploy specific knowledge effectively Feed the media and reach like-minded individuals easily Students may not realize that news stories are often fed by interest groups that write press releases that are often printed verbatim. Powerful interest groups, therefore, do not wait for news to break but rather work to influence it in advance in a manner favorable to their cause. Of course, many groups also have like-minded individuals seeking them out, and thus can have very developed communications networks.

Shaping Public Opinion Opponents and proponents of a woman’s right to choose often clash with one another. Large, well-financed groups on both sides of the debate try to influence public opinion and government policy.

Shaping Public Opinion Media Very effective at telling Americans what issues are important Can frame what it means for a politician to be successful Can shape how people understand the meaning of a conflict Governments frequently attempt to influence public opinion. This 1943 poster was intended to build support for World War II by associating it with the American Revolution.

Measuring Public Opinion Polling Sample Probability sampling Random Digit Dialing Selection Bias Sample Size Margin of Error Survey Design Measurement Error Question Wording Push Polling Instructors often find it helpful to distribute a poll or put one up from the web and walk the students through how to read one critically.

Sampling Techniques and Selection Bias Though public opinion is important, it is not always easy to interpret, and polls often fail to predict accurately how Americans will vote. In 1948, election-night polls showed Thomas Dewey defeating Harry S. Truman for the presidency.

Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2008) TABLE 5.3 Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2008) Since their poor showing in 1948, the major pollsters have been close to the mark in every national presidential election. In 2000, though, neither Gallup nor Harris accurately predicted the outcome. From what you have learned about polling, what were some of the possible sources of error in these two national polls? NOTE: All figures except those for 1948 are rounded. NA = Not asked. SOURCES: Data from the Gallup Poll and the Harris Survey (New York: Chicago Tribune–New York News Syndicate, various press releases 1964–2004). Courtesy of the Gallup Organization and Louis Harris Associates.

Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2008) (cont’d) TABLE 5.3 Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2008) (cont’d) Since their poor showing in 1948, the major pollsters have been close to the mark in every national presidential election. In 2000, though, neither Gallup nor Harris accurately predicted the outcome. From what you have learned about polling, what were some of the possible sources of error in these two national polls? NOTE: All figures except those for 1948 are rounded. NA = Not asked. SOURCES: Data from the Gallup Poll and the Harris Survey (New York: Chicago Tribune–New York News Syndicate, various press releases 1964–2004). Courtesy of the Gallup Organization and Louis Harris Associates.

Public Opinion and Democracy Why don’t leaders always follow public opinion? How strongly do people hold opinions? The structure of American government Governing often involves compromise

Public Opinion Poll Do you agree or disagree that the policies of the United States government represent the preferences and opinions of the American people? Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree 31

Public Opinion Poll Some political leaders poll public opinion on a daily basis while others place less emphasis on polling, apparently believing they should follow their own judgment rather than popular sentiment. Which of these views do you believe is more appropriate in a democracy? Political leaders should primarily govern based on the policy preferences of the public. Political leaders should primarily govern based on their own judgment. 32

Public Opinion Poll Americans vary enormously in their knowledge about government and politics, yet we treat all opinions as having equal weight. Should everyone’s political opinions be treated equally? Yes No 33

Public Opinion Poll Do you believe the majority of your political opinions are based on a full understanding of the issues? Yes No 34

Public Opinion Poll Which of the following political values do you believe is MOST important? Equality of opportunity Liberty Democracy 35

Public Opinion Poll Which of the following do you feel has had the greatest influence on your political values? Family Social groups (racial, religious, national) Education Political conditions/experiences 36

Public Opinion Poll Some commentators have pointed out that much of America is “purple” rather than “red” or “blue.” To what extent do you agree or disagree that the red state/blue state stereotypes apply to your state? Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree 37

Chapter 5: Public Opinion Quizzes Flashcards Outlines Exercises wwnorton.com/we-the-people 38

Following this slide, you will find additional images, figures, and tables from the textbook.

Understanding Public Opinion Even among Americans who supported health care reform in 2010, opinion was divided over the various plans that had been proposed.

Become a Savvy Consumer of Polls