Charles SCAWTHORN Junji KIYONO Kyoto University Earthquake Risk Reduction 1- Concepts & Terminology 1. Concepts and Terminology 2. Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment 3. Mitigation and ERR Program Development

Earthquakes cause death and destruction EarthquakeKilled 2005 South Asia 80, Indian Ocean Tsunami283, Bam, Iran31, Spitak, Armenia25, Gujarat, India20, Izmit-Duzce, Turkey17, Latur-Killari, India9, Kobe, Japan6, Chi-Chi, Taiwan2, Philippines (N Luzon)1, Philippines (Mindanao)8,000

 Plate Tectonics  Subduction  Fault (ie, Earthquake Fault)  Seismotectonics  Magnitude  Intensity  Vulnerability  Risk Management Key Words

Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes - 1

Plate Tectonics and Earthquakes - 2

Seismogenesis Hot Spot Subduction zone Lithosphere Crustal EQs Interslab EQs Intraslab EQs

Agents of Damage -1 faulting tsunami shaking faulting fire landslide liquefaction

 Earthquakes are measured by instruments termed Seismometers, which measure how the ground moves.  Data from several measurements can be used to ‘triangulate’ where the earthquake began to release energy – the corresponding point on the earth’s surface is called the epicenter’  The more the ground moves, the greater the energy release. The total energy released by an earthquake is estimated from several instruments, and used to calculate the “magnitude”, or overall size, of an earthquake – the most common magnitude scale is M w, or ‘moment’ magnitude scale.  M w 6 earthquakes are damaging and some buildings may collapse; M w 7 are very damaging, and many buildings may collapse; M w 8 and larger are extremely damaging, and very many buildings may collapse. In the same way, landslides, liquefaction and other agents of damage are worse, the larger the magnitude. Measuring Earthquakes

 While magnitude measures the overall size of an earthquake, the earthquake’s effects (or intensity) vary from point to point. In general, the closer to the epicenter, the stronger the intensity.  Intensity is measured using many scales – including the PHIVOLCS Scale (PEIS), Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI), MSK, European Macroseismic (EMS), and Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) scales. The PEIS varies from 0 to 10, while the MMI, MSK and EMS are all similar and vary from 0 to 12.  Generally, on the MMI, MSK and/or EMS scales:  6 is the start of damage;  8 is significant damage with some collapsed buildings;  10 is very serious damage, with perhaps many collapsed buildings  12 is total damage  Seismic hazard refers to the likelihood of occurrence of earthquake effects, and is measured in the probability of intensity (or more technical measures) during a period, such as the next 100 years. Seismic Intensity and Hazard

PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale (abbrev)

MMI Scale I. People do not feel any Earth movement. II. A few people might notice movement if they are at rest and/or on the upper floors of tall buildings. III. Many people indoors feel movement. Hanging objects swing back and forth. People outdoors might not realize that an earthquake is occurring. IV. Most people indoors feel movement. Hanging objects swing. Dishes, windows, and doors rattle. The earthquake feels like a heavy truck hitting the walls. A few people outdoors may feel movement. Parked cars rock. V. Almost everyone feels movement. Sleeping people are awakened. Doors swing open or close. Dishes are broken. Pictures on the wall move. Small objects move or are turned over. Trees might shake. Liquids might spill out of open containers. VI. Everyone feels movement. People have trouble walking. Objects fall from shelves. Pictures fall off walls. Furniture moves. Plaster in walls might crack. Trees and bushes shake. Damage is slight in poorly built buildings. No structural damage. VII. People have difficulty standing. Drivers feel their cars shaking. Some furniture breaks. Loose bricks fall from buildings. Damage is slight to moderate in well-built buildings; considerable in poorly built buildings. VIII. Drivers have trouble steering. Houses that are not bolted down might shift on their foundations. Tall structures such as towers and chimneys might twist and fall. Well-built buildings suffer slight damage. Poorly built structures suffer severe damage. Tree branches break. Hillsides might crack if the ground is wet. Water levels in wells might change. IX. Well-built buildings suffer considerable damage. Houses that are not bolted down move off their foundations. Some underground pipes are broken. The ground cracks. Reservoirs suffer serious damage. X. Most buildings and their foundations are destroyed. Some bridges are destroyed. Dams are seriously damaged. Large landslides occur. Water is thrown on the banks of canals, rivers, lakes. The ground cracks in large areas. Railroad tracks are bent slightly. XI. Most buildings collapse. Some bridges are destroyed. Large cracks appear in the ground. Underground pipelines are destroyed. Railroad tracks are badly bent. XII. Almost everything is destroyed. Objects are thrown into the air. The ground moves in waves or ripples. Large amounts of rock may move

Seismic Vulnerability - 1

 Seismic Vulnerability is the degree of damage or loss caused by a given level of seismic intensity.  Seismic vulnerability depends on the materials, age, condition and structural layout of a building or other structure.  Weak brittle materials, such as adobe, unreinforced masonry, and older reinforced concrete buildings, are very likely to be damaged in an earthquake – they have high vulnerability.  Steel, wood and newer reinforced concrete buildings are less likely to be damaged in an earthquake – they have low vulnerability. Seismic Vulnerability - 2

Seismic Vulnerability - 3 Two approaches: MMI % damage Statistical approach Detailed engineering model F = [K] X Sa 

Seismic Vulnerability-3

 Assets may be people, property, profits, or other things of value.  Loss is the reduction in value of an asset due to damage. Loss is measured in many ways, such as the ratio of of fatalities to total population, repair cost ratio, etc.  Risk is the uncertainty of loss.  Risk or Loss estimation is the quantification of the earthquake loss, and is a basic first step in managing earthquake risk. Earthquake Risk Earthquake Effects – faulting, shaking intensity, liquefaction, tsunami… Built Environment – buildings, industry, infrastructure… Human Environment – People, organizations, institutions, cultural heritage, finances… Loss – human injury, cost or repairs, business interruption, social disruption…

 Earthquake damage and loss can be reduced or mitigated in a number of ways.  Mitigation is possible at each step of the earthquake loss process.  Breaking the chain of the causation of earthquake damage anywhere reduces or eliminate the loss.  The earlier in the process the chain is broken, the more effective is the mitigation. Earthquake Risk Reduction

Analyse the Earthquake Risk (Identify/Analyze/Evaluate/Treat) Develop the Mitigation Program Implement the Mitigation Program Initial Assessment of the Problem Maintain (Review and Monitor) Session 3 Session 2 Earthquake Risk Reduction Program

 The goal of Earthquake Risk Reduction is not to find a solution, but rather to find the best solution. “best” implies decision-making.  Decision-making consists of two basic steps;  Estimate the Risk, and  Examine Mitigation Alternatives.  Estimating the risk involves defining the problem, quantifying the current risk (ie, as-is), and determining if further action is needed.  Examining mitigation alternatives requires selecting the basis for analysis, identifying alternatives, screening alternatives, and choosing a decision method.  The last step in Earthquake Risk Reduction is implementing the alternatives. An earthquake risk management program consists of the following steps; funding, program management, implementing the plan, risk transfer and an emergency plan. Earthquake Risk Reduction

Earthquake Risk Reduction Presentations 1. Concepts and Terminology 2. Hazard, Vulnerability & Risk Assessment 3. Mitigation and ERR Program Development