The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 2008

Hypothesis Upper-level trough in the Plains Shortwave passing through Low-level jet from Gulf of Mexico Moisture advection from south Strong, veering winds Neutral layer near surface

Conceptual Model

Not Quite Type B...

Mesoscale Factors (0000 UTC)

Nashville Sounding (0000 UTC)

Trigger 1: The Low-Level Jet 1800 UTC (1200 LST) 2100 UTC (1500 LST)

Trigger 2: Shortwave 0000 UTC (1800 LST)

The Supercell

Type B Legacy: Nighttime Tornadoes LSTUTC 5:02 PM2302ATKINS POPE AR *** 3 FATAL *** 6:25 PM00255 SW DANCYVILLE FAYETTE TN *** 1 FATAL *** 6:42 PM00426 NNW MERCER MADISON TN *** 2 FATAL *** 7:30 PM0130MORRIS CHAPEL HARDIN TN *** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 7:40 PM01404 NW SAVANNAH HARDIN TN *** 3 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 7:44 PM01441 W GREENVILLE MUHLENBERG KY *** 3 FATAL *** 10:10 PM04105 W HARTSVILLE TROUSDALE TN *** 2 FATAL *** 1:45 AM07459 SSE SCOTTSVILLE MACON TN *** 4 FATAL *** 1:45 AM07457 SSE SCOTTSVILLE ALLEN KY *** 4 FATAL *** 3:20 AM09206 SE MOULTON LAWRENCE AL *** 3 FATAL *** 5:20 AM1120PISGAH JACKSON AL *** 1 FATAL ***

References Martin, Jonathan E. Mid-Latitude Cyclone Dynamics: A First Course. Wiley Publishing, Blanchard, D. O., 1998: Assessing the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 870–877. Miller, R.C., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Air Weather Service, Monette, S. A. The Parkersburg, IA EF-5 Tornado: Destruction Amidst the Rain Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Hayes, J. L. Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak - Executive Summary National Weather Service. National Weather Service-Memphis, February 5, 2008 Storm Damage Survey.. SPC Severe Event Index Lecture 11 Powerpoint